What is M2: M2 is a measure of the money supply that includes M1 (currency, demand deposits, and other liquid deposits like checking accounts) plus savings deposits, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) with maturities of less than $100,000. It represents a broader measure of money available in an economy for spending and investment. If a tree fell in the woods, but the data said it didn’t, does it really mean anything? Despite what appeared to be relatively solid data, m… View More
Recent economic indicators suggest growing concerns about a potential recession. With calls for such an event expected to intensify. A weak jobs report has solidified expectations for an interest rate cut, as policymakers aim to stimulate economic activity. Analysts anticipate that discussions surrounding a recession will amplify in the near term, driven by persistent labor market challenges and broader economic uncertainties. Key Points: Recession Concerns: Emerging signals indicate a … View More
U.S. real GDP was revised higher in 2Q, which helped keep NIPA corporate profits in positive territory (+1.7% q/q and +4.3% y/y). As profits are growing, the U.S. economy tends to avoid big trouble. Still, until U.S. economic growth becomes more broad-based (e.g., it includes housing, manufacturing, etc.), it seems critical that government policymakers keep U.S. financial conditions from tightening much. There are some cracks, eg, U.S. home prices declining m/m in June (both the Case-Shiller an… View More
Nvidia Once Again Takes Center Stage - It's that time of the reporting season again, when all eyes turn to Nvidia, which reports after the close on Wednesday. While most investors look for clues about the state of the AI capex cycle, it's equally important to pay attention to commentary around China. In recent quarters, Nvidia has been transparent about the dollar value of missed sales due to restrictions. The 15% sales commission effectively imposed by the U.S. government on Chinese sales will … View More
Strong Showing For Q2 After Lowered Expectations: Despite the lower expectations, Q2 is shaping up to exceed even the pre-liberation day growth expectations, with growth coming in at more than double the initial expectations of 12.9%. The spotlight remains on the most prominent companies, but we have seen strong performance. 9 of 11 GICS sectors exceeded July 1st expectations, and 8 out of 11 exceeded April 1st expectations. Second-quarter EPS currently stands at $66.84, more than $1.30 above w… View More