In 2024, Republicans swept the White House, the Senate, and the House, allowing them to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. But the clock is ticking on their congressional majorities. At this point, we think the odds are very high that the Democrats will win back the House in the midterm election in November. Compared to 2024, the Democrats only need to gain three seats to take back the House. Historically, the party not in control of the White House – this cycle, the Democrats – have gained… View More
Summary Stocks fell again (S&P 500 -2.10%) (and to the lowest level since September) for the fifth week in a row with NASDAQ down ten of the last eleven weeks. Best sectors were energy (+6.22%), materials (+4.18%), and utilities (+2.94%); worst sectors were communication services (-7.17%) and information technology (-3.44%). Key Takeaways President Trump extended his deadline for a deal with Iran for ten more days. This will likely prolong uncertainty and volatility in the f… View More
Structural forces from electrification to industrial growth are reshaping the U.S. power landscape. We have been commenting on this for the past year or so and have allocated our portfolios accordingly. We thought it may be a good idea to take a little deeper look into Energy considering what is going on in Iran and why this is important to you. After an unusually flat period over the past two decades, U.S. electricity demand is increasing again, marking a meaningful shift from prior consumpti… View More
In the aftermath of the first Internet stock-market bubble of the late 1990s, the economy went into a relatively shallow recession starting in 2001. That recession was precipitated by a tight monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates consistently above the pace of nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth plus inflation). In that sense – as a result of tight money – the 2001 recession was like the recessions of 1970, 1973-74, 1980, 1981-82, and 1990-91. Since tha… View More
February was a relatively quiet month for markets — the S&P 500 slipped -0.9%, the Nasdaq fell -3.4%, and the Dow edged up +0.2%. Then everything changed on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran. Within days, the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply normally flows — was effectively closed to shipping. The questions we've been hearing from clients are understan… View More