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Perspectives

Initial Thoughts As 2026 Begins

by Fortem Financial January 5, 2026

In today’s note, we discuss our initial thoughts as 2026 begins, noting that double-digit return years are not uncommon, and we explore how the fundamental broadening of the S&P is being pushed out further in 2026.   Returns Exceeding 15% For A Fourth Consecutive Year Not Unheard Of Since 1926, there have been four instances in which the S&P 500 posted returns greater than 15% for three consecutive years. In only one of those cases did the market experience a negative return in the… View More

The Santa Claus Rally Begins

by Fortem Financial December 29, 2025

U.S. equity markets began the holiday‑shortened trading week on a firm footing. Broad gains in major indexes and the start of the Santa Claus rally marked this week. Following modest volatility in trading earlier in December, sentiment improved significantly as investors bet on year-end flows. As shown, the CNN Fear-Greed Index has moved materially higher from its readings earlier in the month. The Santa Claus rally window officially began on Christmas Eve. That rally is traditionally defined… View More

Year-End Market Commentary

by Fortem Financial December 22, 2025

As 2025 draws to a close, markets are poised for a potential Santa Claus rally amid a year of solid gains. The S&P 500 is up over 15% year-to-date, on track for its third consecutive double-digit advance, driven by resilient economic growth, AI momentum, and Fed rate cuts. Despite a shaky December—with indices slightly lower so far this month due to profit-taking in tech and AI jitters—historical seasonality favors upside into year-end and early 2026. Small-caps and value sectors have s… View More

Bob Doll's 2025 10 Predictions Year-End Recap

by Fortem Financial December 15, 2025

Each year, we bring you our friend, the CEO and CFO of Crossmark Investments, and his annual predictions that will affect the market. The following is a recap of his predictions:   Summary The U.S stock market experienced a better-than-expected third year in a row of double-digit percentage gains. Earnings growth was quite good as AI-related businesses exceeded expectations. A 20% tariff-related decline led to a 40% recovery in the S&P 500. By year-end, investors are hopeful for yet anot… View More

What's Important Now

by Fortem Financial December 9, 2025

Earnings Growth Outlook Improving, Hard To Be Too Negative Heading Into 2026 With 3Q reporting nearing an end and the fourth quarter coming into focus, we’re seeing an interesting trend: earnings estimates are once again being revised higher—much like what we saw in the third quarter. This pattern is unusual, especially at this stage of the year. The 4Q earnings estimate now stands at 8.2%, up from 7.7% on October 1. Revenue expectations are also strong, with forecasts calling for 7.0% gro… View More

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC (“Fortem Financial” or the “Firm”) is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. The Firm may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

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