AI Spending Concerns Addressed: Increased Funding Needed Recent concerns regarding a potential slowdown or halt in the AI capital expenditure (capex) cycle have largely been alleviated, at least for the upcoming quarter. Many of the largest spenders have either projected higher capex for next year or indicated an increase in spending. However, it is important to note that not all spending appears equal; Meta’s recent sell-off serves as a prime example. Companies will need to demonstrate tangi… View More
Strong 3Q Reporting Season So Far, 2026 Overall Expectations Little Changed With 29% of companies reporting this earnings season, overall results have been strong. About 87% of companies have beaten earnings estimates, and 82% have exceeded revenue expectations. Financials have shown the most significant improvement in earnings growth forecasts, rising to 21% from 12% at the start of the quarter. Materials have also strengthened, with growth estimates increasing to 19% from 14%. For the overall… View More
Summary Stocks rebounded in a volatile week (S&P 500 +1.71%) following the rout two Fridays ago. 3Q25 earnings started strong, led by big banks. Volatility resulted largely from U.S.-China trade rhetoric. Best sectors were communication services (+3.64%) and real estate (+3.46%); biggest laggard was financials (+0.03%). The High-Risk Bull Market Continues The October Fed Beige Book points to slowing growth as uncertainty continues to weigh on activity. The September ISM Services In… View More
Over the past two and a half decades, the federal government has buried taxpayers under a mountain of debt, now approaching $38 trillion. During this time, the key problem has been spending, not a lack of tax revenue. Over the past 25 years, taxes have remained relatively stable as a share of GDP, while spending has continued to rise. It's estimated that spending was 23.2% of GDP in the year ending September 30 (Fiscal Year 2025) versus 17.7% in 2000. In other words, the reason there is a debt … View More
Key Takeaways In the absence of the usual monthly payroll report, the September ADP report contracted by 32k jobs, missing expectations and extending the trend of weakening employment. The September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey missed expectations, confirming weak growth and employment momentum. Consumer confidence fell again (from 97.8 to 94.2), reconfirming weakening labor signals. It is hard to justify the resumption of a Fed rate-cutting cycle when the economic expansion is dura… View More