Perspectives

The equity and bond markets ended a volatile week last week in a somewhat optimistic mood.  Once again, trade and geopolitical events took center stage as the markets posted another week of losses.  On Wednesday, recessionary fears drove an 800 point (3%) decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, its biggest selloff of the year.  The equity markets fell in reaction to a yield curve inversion (that is, when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note  fell below the 2-year U.S. Treasury Note for the first time since 2007).  Historically, an inverted yield curve often,but not always, acts as a precursor to a recession or stock market downturn.  The market trend reversed, though, when President Trump commented on Thursday that his administration is in “very productive talks” with China.  Also, on Friday, German newspapers wrote that the government would issue debt and boost spending; the country’s use of fiscal policy (i.e., deficit spending) marks a significant change.  For the week, the Dow fell 1.53%, the Russell 2000® Index declined 1.28%; the S&P 500® Index fell 1.03% and the Nasdaq lost 0.79%.

Globally, news headlines were disconcerting: protests continued in Hong Kong, elections in Argentina will weaken the government.  Also, reports of stagnant or negative economic growth (Germany -0.1%; UK -0.2%; Italy 0.0%) cast a dark cloud for already nervous investors.  Central banks, which have already lowered interest rates, appear to have few options available to stimulate economic growth.  The uncertainty continues to weigh on corporations; they have delayed capital spending pending resolution of trade tariffs.

President Trump announced last week that some tariffs scheduled to become effective on September 1st would be delayed until mid-December; and September’s scheduled trade discussions are still likely.  Economic data from the U.S. and China signal that both countries are suffering from the trade war. Many investors, unsettled by the inconclusive and volatile headlines, have chosen to move to Treasuries and cash.

Even so, well-managed companies are well-positioned to ride out the uncertainties, and the impact on their current stock prices.  Some are taking steps to mitigate the tariffs yet such actions may become increasingly difficult the longer the conflicts persist.  Globally, the decline in interest rates present challenges for investors to find attractive investment opportunities; many will focus on stocks with high dividend rates.  All eyes, though, look towards the eventual resolution of trade disputes to enable a rebound in economic growth.

We believe the stock market will likely be range-bound until a) the Fed eases more aggressively – perhaps 2 more times in 2019 and/or b) there is a definitive end to the U.S. trade tensions with China.  “There Is No Alternative” rules for the time being with regard to sector allocation – defensive stocks and high growth companies will likely continue to outperform in a period of economic uncertainty & negative rates.

Tariffs could be holding up inflation in the U.S. for now. But we believe the medium-term impact of the trade war is still deflationary as global growth slows.  German GDP & China industrial production weakening reinforce this point.

There remain real risks going forward: 1) Brexit deadline (Oct 31). 2) Italy bond yields remaining elevated. 3) Japan VAT tax increase (Oct 1). 4) What does Fed language look like after several cuts? 5) Can WTI oil prices hold $50? 6) Will the U.S. impose tariffs on E.U. autos? 7) Continued U.S./China trade war. 8) Hong Kong protests. 9) Trade tensions between Japan & S. Korea. 10) Market seasonality not supportive until Oct. We are keeping an eye on all of these potential market movers and will update you if our thoughts change.  For now,  we look forward to Q3 earnings season starting in October to give better guidance from the public markets.

Source: Pacific Global Investment Management Company, Strategas

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

 

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. 

Overnight between August 13th and August 14th, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Interest Rate dropped below the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Interest Rate.  In the investment world, this is known as a “Yield Curve Inversion.” The inversion of the 2-year and 10-year treasury is significant because historically every recession has been preceded by an inversion of the 2-year and the 10-year treasury rate and because it is uncommon to experience this yield curve inversion without a recession occurring within 22 months of the inversion.  

Since 1970 there have been 11 inversions of the 2-year and the and the 10-year U.S. Treasury Rates.  They occurred in August 1978, September 1980, January 1982, January 1989, August 1989, March 1990, June 1998, January 2000, January 2006, June 2006, and August 2019.  Interestingly, most of these inversion ended with the stock market up in the both the twelve and the twenty four months following the inversion.  The equity markets passed through periods of uncertainty and fell during each of the periods, but the market's losses were usually quickly recovered.  

To put things in context, we will provide a brief summary of these eleven inversions and the market's outcome following the inversion.  From the day the first inversion occurred in August 1978 through next twelve moths, the market was flat, and after two years, the market was up over 13%.  

The second inversion took place in September 1980.  Investors who stayed in the market would have been down 5% twelve months after the inversion occurred, and if they'd stayed in the market for two years they would have been up 3%.  

The third inversion (January 1982) resulted in the market being up 29% twelve months after the the inversion.  Twenty-four months after the inversion the market was up over 48% from its price on the day the inversion began.  

The fourth inversion that began in January 1989 resulted in the stock market being up over 24% twelve months after it started.  However, after 24 months, the stock market had stumbled again and gave back some of its earnings, leaving it with a gain of 13% over the two-year period.  

The fifth inversion, beginning in August 1989, left the stock market with a 2% loss after twelve months and a 16% gain after two years.  The sixth inversion led into a twelve month period when the stock market appreciated 12%.  The 2-year return ended with the market up over 27%.  

The seventh inversion looked much like some of the previous periods; the market was up 22% twelve months after the inversion and up over 39% two years later.  The eighth inversion began like some of the prior inversions, with the stock market down about 3% twelve months later.  However, two years after the inversion began the market was down almost 20%.  

The ninth inversion, beginning in January of 2006 saw a gain in the market of more than 13% twelve months after the inversion, and a gain of only 6% two years after the inversion began.  The tenth inversion resulted in a market gain of 21% after twelve months, and a gain of 12% two years after the inversion.  

The moral of the story here is that while a recession very often follows an inversion of the yield curve, the market, more often than not, is up in both the 12 month period and the twenty four month period following the inversion.  The average annual return of the 1-year period following an inversion (over the last 10 inversions) is +11.7%, and the average annualized return over the 2-year period following an inversion (over the last 10 inversions) is +7.6%.  

The media, and many investors, have become hyper sensitive to the news.  We see evidence of this behavior regularly.  The President sends a tweet that the market likes, an the market climbs 2% or 3% in a day.  The President sends a tweet the market doesn't like, and the market drops 2% or 3% in a day. When the Fed makes an announcement, if the market likes the news, the market may climb 2% in a day, and if they don't like the news, may just as easily drop 2% in a day.  Looking at the data over rolling twelve month periods smooths out the highs and the lows; stocks do after all follow their earnings.

We believe the memory of the 2008 bear market is contributing significantly to the hyper sensitivity to news and the fear in the market.  We believe this fear is an emotional response and largely irrational.  Why?  Because so many of the facts are so different between 2008 (or even 2000) and now.  Consumers were highly levered in 2008; in 2019, consumers have a much healthier personal balance sheet.  In 2008, corporate profits were driven by purchases made with borrowed money (remember the Home Equity Loans many used like ATM machines?).  Today, income, personal savings, and personal liabilities are much healthier.  Underwriting standards in 2008 allowed borrowers who would have normally been denied credit to borrow large sums of money with stated income loans (no income verification), no-money-down loans, and adjustable rate interest-only loans.  Today's underwriting standards have returned to a rational level.  Income must be verified, credit scores must demonstrate the borrow has a history of repaying his/her debts, and if a borrower wants an interest only loan, he/she must be approved for a fully amortized payment at the highest rate the loan could ever have.  

So what are we recommending?  We are recommending that rater than trying to time the market (an accomplishment no one has ever yet achieved with consistency), you follow your investment plan and the fundamental data.  Rather than respond to the news, follow the earnings and the economic data.  If the economy is growing (positive GDP) and earnings are growing, the stock market should continue to move higher despite the bumps in the road along the way.  We have seen it happen over and over again.  We have also witnessed a few people who HAD TO REACT TO THE NEWS OF THE DAY, and paid the price for doing so.  Before investing, we run a financial plan and assess the viability (success ratio) of that plan.  After confirming the expectation of a successful outcome, we invest in the recommended portfolio.  In the planning process we review expenses, income, assets, life expectancy, individual goals, etc. and then suggest a portfolio allocation that we believe will get you through the “ups” and “downs” of the market (including weeks like this week).    

We will continue to monitor the economic data as this story unfolds, and if we see that GDP is starting to slip into negative territory, or if we see that earnings are expected to fall, then we will share that information and react accordingly.

 

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. 

The term “trade war” seems appropriate in describing the escalating dispute between the U.S. and China. A week ago Friday, President Trump’s announcement a September 1st tariff increase; on Monday, China, announced it would stop buying American agricultural products and allowed the yuan to devalue to levels not seen since 2008. Subsequent commentaries speculated on the economic impacts to each side as the markets sold off and then largely recovered. Then on Friday, President Trump indicated that a scheduled September meeting might be cancelled; the resulting selloff sent the markets lower for the week: the Russell 2000® Index declined 1.34%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.75%), the Nasdaq (-0.56%) and S&P 500® Index (-0.46%).

Investors fear that the most recent escalation in rhetoric will slow global economic growth and perhaps lead to a recession. Chinese officials stated that they would support the yuan; the alternative, a further devaluation could potentially destabilize its economy by creating a flight of capital and increasing the risk of bankruptcies for Chinese companies with dollar-denominated debt. Also, China’s decision to forego imports of U.S. agricultural products may be problematic as replacement countries, such as Brazil, may be unable to meet the demand.

Unlike one year ago when President Trump was calling the trade shots, investors now need to be focused on what President Xi will do. Joe Biden’s dovish trade stance, and frontrunner 2020 candidate status, may even result in China slow-walking a deal.

The longer China waits to make a trade deal, the more US Companies will look at changing their supply lines (This is already going on). If US Companies decide to change where they manufacture their products from China to other countries (or even back to the states), China would be losing economic revenue they may never get back. If that is the case, it would be like taking four steps back to take one step forward. In other words, China has grown its infrastructure to support a certain growth rate on a leveraged basis. If their economy slows and they cannot get that growth back, they will be putting pressure on its future growth prospect and could have a hard time paying its debts in the future. If China looks to wait and see who wins the election in 2020, it is our opinion that they will have waited too long and the damage to their economy could potentially be far reaching.

The chain that continues to impact the economy is: 1) trade matters for manufacturing 2) manufacturing matters for profits; 3) profits matter for future business spending (capex + employment). This is what central banks are starting to offset (especially as this hit has flowed thru to future pricing & inflation expectations).

The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing as companies delay planned investments because of trade uncertainties. For now, consumer spending is largely filling some of the void but buyers remain cautious. The flight of capital to safe haven U.S. Treasuries sent the yield on the 10-year Bond to a three-year low of 1.71% while the 30-year bond neared an all-time low on Wednesday. Homeowners are refinancing to take advantage of lower mortgage rates.

Elsewhere, several countries, including India, New Zealand and Thailand lowered interest rates in response to concerns of an economic slowdown. And, Japan resumed shipment of some products essential for South Korean manufacturers. Also, Japan reported a higher-than-expected second quarter GDP growth of 2.8%.

Despite the market turbulence last week, investors rewarded companies which reported strong revenue and earnings. Largely, however, the markets will likely react to news headlines for the latest updates on trade negotiations.

Source: Pacific Global Investment Management Company, Strategas

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

 

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Latest News

Last Week's Headlines: 8/12/2019

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.