In 1852, Karl Marx said "Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly encountered and transmitted from the past." He obviously knew about the Magna Carta (1215) and the English Parliament’s Bill of Rights (1689), which created a separation of powers between the King and elected representatives. What he didn’t pay much attention to was how the United States broke with history… View More
However, it is a bit challenging due to increased regulations and interest rates. This year’s Homebuyer Insights Report survey data reveals meaningful changes in attitudes toward homeownership. The study finds that for the first time since 2023, more Americans favor buying a home (53%) over renting or moving in with family (47%). Even as attitudes shift, prospective buyers increasingly point to affordability as the top barrier to homeownership, with expensive home prices (58%, … View More
A deal to extend the ceasefire in the Middle East has finally been agreed, allowing energy prices to decline further and risk-asset markets to resume their pre-war bull run. The history of the Middle East points to inevitable bumps ahead. A lasting peace has not been achieved, and some of the players are not agreeing to stop at this juncture. Should investors expect setbacks ahead? Summary Equities were higher last week with the DJIA and Russell 2000 hitting record highs, while the S&P… View More
With what appears to be a deal with Iran taking shape and the reopening of the Strait looking increasingly likely, the two most important questions we are asking ourselves are: 1) How will global inflation expectations respond, and 2) will markets revert to the trends and themes that were working before the conflict began? Easing Inflation Expectations to Provide Rate Relief The direction of global inflation expectations will be one of the most important variables to monitor in the coming … View More
The job market was surprisingly strong in May, with non-farm payrolls growing 172,000, beating even the strongest forecasts for the month. As a result, the futures market is now pricing in a quarter-point rate hike later this year and, more likely than not, another quarter-point rate hike sometime in 2027. But we think a rate hike would be ill-advised and unlikely. First, this is a good employment report, but not a “barnburner.” Barnburner job growth is 300,000 to 400,000 per month. Even Ke… View More