While stocks fell overall last week (S&P 500 -0.29%), both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit record highs. Macro news was relatively quiet. The focus is on this week's CPI report and the beginning of 2Q earnings reports. Tariff developments continue to confuse. Best Sectors were energy (2.48%), utilities (0.77%), and industrials (0.59%); worst sectors were financials (-1.90%), consumer staples (-1.77%), and communication services (-1.07%). Key Takeaways June's employment report showed a… View More
Now that the “One Big Beautiful Bill” has passed, we will highlight some of the major components of the legislation. Extension of $400bn of Expiring Tax Provisions. If Congress did not act by the end of this year, middle-class families would face a $400bn tax increase in 2026. Both political parties had been working on a plan to extend many of these tax provisions. The new tax law permanently extends these tax cuts, meaning the only way to change the tax rates is by a future act of Co… View More
Well, it took just 55 trading days for the S&P to roundtrip from the 4/8 closing low to Friday’s 6/27 cycle high, even beating the 1998 analogue by a few days as the fastest example in 75 years following at least a -15% drawdown (using closing lows / closing highs for consistency). The velocity of the move was a surprise, but it’s again a reminder that when the S&P 20-day highs expand through 50% (as they did in early-May) spend more time thinking about what could go right than wron… View More
America’s military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday evening will, no doubt, be seen as a “hinge moment” in history. Experience teaches us as investors, however, to be careful in drawing too many conclusions at this stage about the implications of the event. (Who can forget US Treasury yields falling in response to the initial downgrade in 2011?) Perhaps this will usher in a new period of peace in the Middle East where this is either a regime change in Iran or Iran’s lea… View More
The United States consumes much of its GDP; China does not. The result is Yin and Yang. On net, China produces and the US consumes. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put it this way last week at a Senate hearing – “China has a singular opportunity to stabilize its economy by shifting away from excess production towards greater consumption.” That is the rallying cry for tariffs and trade negotiations. And while the US government seems to blame it all on China, it is also true that the US h… View More