Is Government Spending Inflationary? The stimulus bills approved by Congress starting in 2020 led to the largest surge in government spending in history, coinciding with a sharp rise in inflation. This has led many to assume that government spending itself caused inflation. But is that assumption correct? In today's "Three on Thursday," we explore whether government spending inherently leads to inflation. Milton Friedman famously stated, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenome… View More
Looks like this was just primping from the Fed in an election year and now we need to deal with reality. The bond market is always right, and it is indicating that rates are probably not going lower, and inflation is probably not in our rearview mirror. Lower returns in the year ahead seem inevitable, especially given already rich equity valuations and prospects for higher bond yields. Inflation will prove stickier and higher than central banks and markets are forecasting. That implies that cen… View More
Continuing a yearly tradition, Bob Doll, chief investment officer of Crossmark Global Investments, has released his 10 market and economic predictions for 2025. During 2025, the economy will slow, and unemployment will creep up, according to Doll. These are his other predictions: Inflation remains sticky and fails to reach the Fed's 2% target, causing Fed funds rate to fall less than expected. Treasury 10-year yields trade primarily between 4% and 5% as credit spreads widen. Earnings … View More
The buzz (can we say, vibe?) surrounding the newly established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is undeniable. But the question remains: can DOGE truly deliver on their promise to reduce government spending? Proposing an extensive list of programs to cut is one thing—implementing those cuts is another. This isn’t the first time a president has launched a commission to identify ways to trim government expenses. The best comparison to today’s DOGE is the Grace Commission, formally… View More
Each year we like to post the 10 predictions from our friend Bob Doll. This week, Bob Doll reviews the predictions he made in December 2023 to see how they measured up. He did better than most with his below predictions. We will pass on his 2025 predictions after the first of the year. Happy Holidays from all of us at Fortem Financial Summary The U.S. stock market has experienced back-to-back years of 25+% returns. While a handful of stocks account for the majority of returns, most… View More