Perspectives

On Friday, the much anticipated earnings season began with JP Morgan reporting earnings 5% above expectations; positive commentary by management on the strong demand for credit by consumers and businesses helped propel the Financials sector higher.  The Nasdaq led all indices for the week (0.57%) followed by the S&P 500® (0.51%) and the Russell 2000® Index (0.14%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.05%.  The S&P 500® reached an important milestone on Friday when the Index crossed 2900 for the first time since last October.  Walt Disney provided momentum (+11.5% on Friday) for the Index when the company unveiled a video streaming platform; the November launch will offer an extensive library of films including the Star Wars series.  In other corporate news, Chevron announced the acquisition of Anadarko Petroleum at a 39% premium over recent prices; the deal signals longer-term confidence in oil prices.  Further consolidation in oil and gas exploration is expected as major oil companies look to boost fracking production.  The upcoming price for Uber’s IPO will likely range between $48 to $55 per share; the range reflects the recent 17% post-IPO price decline for competitor Lyft.

This week, the European Union voted to extend Brexit “only as long as necessary” and “no longer than October 31st.”  On May 23rd, the UK must hold elections to the European Parliament; if the UK fails to do so, it will leave the EU on June 1st without a Brexit deal.  This extension provides Prime Minister May with more time to gain support for her Brexit Agreement or gain support from the Labor party for a revised plan.  Elsewhere, details remain sketchy on U.S. and China trade negotiations; the parties seem to be moving closer on enforcement provisions, a key to a final trade agreement.

The positive start to earnings season may bode well for corporate commentaries on expectations for the remainder of 2019.  The markets’ positive momentum seems poised to continue as concerns about monetary policy, trade and the oil price recovery recede.

Source:  Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. 

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Last Week's Headlines: 4/15/2019

1. The number of job openings fell to 7.1 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate was unchanged at 2...

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The Latest on the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting (all times local): 2:45p.m.

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Stocks jmp on bank earnings, Chevron deal

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. 

China’s release of strong economic data last Sunday set the stage for across-the-board market gains in an otherwise quiet week leading into next week’s start of earnings season.  The Russell 2000® Index (2.78%) led the major indices followed by the Nasdaq (2.71%), S&P 500® Index (2.06%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.91%).  Last Monday’s momentum extended through the week with upbeat comments from U.S. and Chinese officials on the progress of trade negotiations; a meeting might be scheduled in the next few weeks between Presidents Trump and Xi.  Few details have emerged despite the lengthy discussions over the past couple of months.  A trade deal between the two countries would not require Congressional approval; in sharp contrast, the potential NAFTA replacement faces an uncertain fate in Congress.

After the United Kingdom parliament again failed to agree on Brexit, Prime Minister May wrote to the EU requesting a flexible delay to June 30 (or earlier if a deal is ratified); an EU summit will consider the request next week.  May also has been in discussions with the Labor party in seeking common ground which might break the impasse.  Bottom line: in the absence of any other decisions, a no-deal Brexit will happen on April 12th.  On a brighter note, U.S. employment data improved: initial jobless claims for the last week of March (202,000) fell to the lowest level since 1969; also, the U.S. added 196,000 new jobs in March (economists expected of 175,000).  The unemployment rate remained at 3.98%.  Hourly wages rose 0.1% for the month with the year-over-year rate slipping from 3.4% to 3.2%.  The data are unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s projections of no rate changes in 2019.  And yet, President Trump and other White House officials are pushing a 0.5% rate cut even though little economic data support the need for such a move.

During the first week of post-opening day trading, Lyft gained approximately 2.8%.  Analysts who cover the stock are mixed; half recommend ‘buy’ while the remainder recommending ‘hold’ with one ‘sell.’  Overall, the markets reflect the absence of newsworthy events beyond trade negotiations and Brexit.  Investors are gaining more confidence from positive data on the Chinese economy, and progress in trade negotiations.  Volatility remains low entering earnings season with muted expectations for revenue and earnings growth.  JP Morgan and Wells Fargo will report on Friday followed by Citibank and Bank of America early in the following week.  The market’s upward bias continues yet positive corporate commentaries for the remainder of the year may prove most important in providing momentum in the equity markets.

Source:  Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. 

Latest News

Last Week's Headlines: 4/8/2019

1. Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March, and the overall economy grew for the 119th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Inst...

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Trade talks will probably end with tariffs still in place

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U.S. Adds 196,000 Jobs in March; Unemployment at 3.8%

After a lackluster performance in February, the job market bounced back in March.

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. 

The S&P 500's performance for the first quarter is its best quarterly gain since Q3 of 2009 and its finest start to the year since 1998. The quarter certainly benefited from an oversold bounce back after the fourth quarter's heavy 14% slump, but analysts still see a positive period ahead. While there could be some bumps in Q2 as the market struggles with earnings growth and a slower economy, positive U.S. China trade relations and investing sentiment could propel stocks higher.

The last day of the quarter celebrated the much anticipated Lyft IPO.  For the week, the Russell 2000® led all indices with a gain of 2.25% followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1.67%), S&P 500® (1.20%) and the Nasdaq (1.13%).  Prior to the Friday IPO, Lyft raised the offering price from the mid-60s to $72; the stock then closed up 8.74% for the day.  Some believe the IPO will start a new technology wave as Uber and Pinterest are among several companies planning upcoming IPOs.  The open issue is whether or not these companies transition to profitability. 

The markets seemed encouraged by the resumption of trade discussions in China; equity markets in Asia finished with their best quarterly results since 2016.  Even as the U.S. and China appear committed to reach a trade agreement, both countries acknowledge the slow pace of negotiations; and, the lack of details provides little on which to gauge any progress.  And yet, the recent increase in prices for pork and other commodities confirms that China is purchasing increased quantities of goods from the U.S.  In Europe, the future of Brexit remains unknown; Prime Minister May’s latest attempt at Parliamentary approval for her withdrawal agreement failed; also, non-binding “indicative” votes on several alternatives each failed to gain a majority.  Parliament will consider more indicative voting next week; then, on April 10, the EU holds an emergency summit, and April 12 would be the new Brexit day if the UK does not seek and/or the EU does not grant a further delay.

First quarter economic data were mixed; some now suggest that the Federal Reserve should cut rates to support economic growth.  Larry Kudlow, National Economic Council Director, suggested an immediate half percent rate cut to protect economic expansion.  Dallas Fed President Kaplan responded by saying that first quarter data “are going to be a little bit noisy” as there were “lots of odd things going on.”  However, a rate cut would not address the biggest economic concern which is the uncertainty for both consumers and businesses related to the trade disputes.

Several companies have preannounced negative, or positive, earning variances.  Earnings season begins during the second week in April; results will provide more insight into the strength of the economy and outlook for the remainder of the year.  Recent trading activity, including light volumes and modest volatility, suggests that many investors are in a holding pattern perhaps awaiting some sort of market catalyst; and still, the market’s upside momentum continues.

Source:  Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. 

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Survey: US manufacturing activity increased in March

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.