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Perspectives

Earnings, Revenues, GDP and Inflation all run hot and still no raise in interest rates in the near future

by Fortem Financial August 2, 2021

Bottlenecks have been larger than anticipated. Inflation is starting to register on the D.C. political radar, but a wait-and-see approach is still favored. U.S. inflation is (still) viewed as transitory. Recent U.S. bond market moves have not scared the Fed. The 10-year Treasury finished last week at 1.22%. As we noted last week, the rise in inflation is pushing down real (inflation-adjusted) spending & GDP growth. U.S. nominal GDP was +13% q/q A.R. in 2Q, but inflation… View More

Review of Q2 Earnings

by Fortem Financial July 26, 2021

Despite some challenges, 2Q economic growth looks solid. 3Q is more of a question mark. The rise in inflation is pushing down real (inflation-adjusted) spending & GDP growth (the core CPI rose at an 8.1% q/q annualized rate in 2Q). Rents are starting to rise. Supply-chain bottlenecks could last longer than expected, especially given uneven global vaccine distribution & effectiveness. If there is hesitation to re-open schools for the next academic year,… View More

Gundlach Sees Stocks As 'Cheap' Compared To Bonds

by Fortem Financial July 19, 2021

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has been touted as the top fixed income manager for more than a decade now. Not all of his calls are 100% correct but he is right more than wrong and when he is wrong, he is not afraid to admit it. Six months ago, Gundlach told CNBC that he thought stocks were very expensive. Today, they are about 15% higher. When asked by CNBC’s Scott Wapner what he thought of equity prices yesterday, he acknowledged they were very expensive. But the… View More

Liquidity, Earnings and Sentiment (LES)

by Fortem Financial July 19, 2021

On July 9th we suggested that the bull market wasn’t over but that it was due for a breather due to already high expectations for earnings and market performance and the not insignificant chance that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was telling us something. With the preannouncement ratio below 1, there remains little room for error during the reporting season. Today we present more evidence for this point of view with our regular monitoring of our LES Model. We developed the measure… View More

The market trades on earnings

by Fortem Financial July 12, 2021

Earnings for the S&P 500 are poised to be up more than 60% y/y when the second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week. This will be the second greatest increase in earnings growth since the fourth quarter of 2009, when profits rose +108.9%. While there are a number of heavy cyclical companies that will post significant earnings gains versus the pre-pandemic levels established in 2019, those companies hardest hit from the pandemic lockdowns - like air travel,… View More

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

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We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

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We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

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