Fortem Financial

Fortem Financial Market Commentary

by Fortem Financial November 14, 2018

As you know, market volatility has been on everyone’s mind. We wanted to update you on our thoughts as to what we believe the source of the volatility is, and when we think it may subside. Strategic market bottoms that give way to durable rallies often begin from a more depressed sentiment backdrop than is currently present. In addition to the timely put/call data (no movement yesterday), we continue to watch the weekly I.I. bull/bear survey for a signal on sentiment. Optimism has retreated from levels seen in late summer, but bulls still outnumber bears about 2 to 1.

Crude is oversold enough to bounce, but the trend is weak and price action is reminiscent enough of 2014/15 to view rallies with skepticism. Crude Oil is down more than 25% in the last 4 weeks. Although this is good for the consumer, it is not so good for profits in the energy sector and that is a weight on the market. Longer term, the lower price will benefit the economy but the short term sell off put energy company earnings into question. Currently, declining oil prices, a moderating Chinese economy, and tightening U.S. monetary policy are factors spooking risk assets (stocks).

An equally-weighted construction of FANG names has flipped to negative in our trend model for the first time in years this week. As a consequence, rallies back to resistance have to be viewed with suspicion – negative trends don’t lock in pronounced or prolonged bear markets, but they are suggestive of environments where return probabilities aren’t skewed favorably. The market has become so used to taking its cue from technology that it is looking for new leadership. Until that leadership is obvious, the market will still try and stabilize based on fundamentals. Price pressures, such as wage inflation, are present yet inflation is not accelerating at a quick enough pace to jeopardize the current economic expansion; it is hard to see price level growth of 2-2.5% hurting the economy much.

NFIB Small Business Optimism remains near historical highs (107.4) despite idiosyncratic and cyclical headwinds. We continue to watch the data for any significant cracks, but thus far there looks to be time to undo the uncertainty created by numerous U.S. trade spats. Still-elevated business confidence argues for a continued capex upswing, suggesting there is still time this business cycle to expand. This is the story that took a pause in 3Q. We’re staying tuned, especially if the Trump administration pursues a short-term deal with China (as we expect).

Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice. Investment performance is not an explicit criteria. Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors.

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Elections are behind us (almost) ...

by Fortem Financial November 12, 2018

Phew! Now that mid-terms are behind us (well, almost behind us with results still pending in Florida and Arizona), we can start focusing on the Presidential election for 2020! We're kidding, of course. Sort of...

With this week's record-setting turnout and enthusiasm, atypical of mid-term election years, both Republicans and Democrats can each claim victory. We would remind you, split governments bode well for equity markets on average, and the S&P 500 has not declined in the 12 months following a midterm election since 1946.

Although we think we will get a reprieve from the current volatility once we finally settle the mid-term elections in Florida and Arizona, we still believe the "all-clear" has yet to be seen and that Q4 volatility may remain elevated. Market internals remain unimpressive, and we need to see more "thrust." Amidst the tepid macro backdrop (peak vs. slowing growth), seasonals remain a tailwind and Healthcare/ Retail stocks remain standouts. More broadly, we continue to think the US economy will outperform other markets, and because of impending fiscal stimulus across the globe, we may finally see some performance from international markets in the next 12 months.

"The equity markets enjoyed a strong post-election rally with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining over 500 points on Wednesday", and then settled down on Thursday and Friday because of the unsettled election results in Florida and Arizona. "The major indices were positive for the week despite a repeat of an end-of-the week selloff on Friday. For the week, the Dow gained 2.84%, followed by the S&P 500® Index (2.13%), the Nasdaq (0.68%), and the Russell 2000® Index (0.10%). The ‘divided Congress’ results of the midterm elections were largely in line with market expectations; the outcome diminishes the likelihood of legislation which might have significant negative consequences for the market. Uncertainties regarding trade, oil price declines, mixed economic data, Italy’s budget standoff, and the release on Wednesday of Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s October Meeting, resurfaced as investors turned their attention away from the elections.

In China, a decline in auto sales, and news of governmental efforts to stimulate growth, raised concerns about an economic slowdown. Investors seem concerned that side conversations during the upcoming G20 meeting may not lead to a truce in the trade tariff war. Elsewhere, oil prices entered bear market territory even as the ban on Iranian oil exports took effect on Monday. Some see the decline in oil prices as a signal of slowing global economic growth and falling demand. And yet, this point of view overlooks strong worldwide demand, especially from India and China; last month, China reported record oil imports. The uncertainty in oil prices relates more to the readjustment of demand and supply as the U.S., Russia and OPEC countries increase production to offset the reduction in Iranian exports; and the Trump Administration’s announcement of a six-month waiver to eight countries, including China, India, Japan and South Korea, to lessen the impact of sanctions on oil prices.

Minutes of the Fed’s October Meeting revealed no significant changes in policy; investors seemed disappointed that trade tariffs will apparently not slow the gradual increase in interest rates. Quarterly earnings reports remain strong even as investors focus elsewhere. Technology companies continue to struggle as the markets seek to determine their future growth prospects. Many companies recently reported impressive results with tangible growth opportunities which exceed those seen in several years. Even so, investors seem cautious, and concerned about uncertainties. Headline news events will likely provide the market catalysts as investors gain more insight into the economic growth outlook in 2019."

Source: (1) Strategas and (2) Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Amazon Versus Walmart -- A Modern Day VHS Versus Betamax?

While Amazon started out as a technological innovator, it is now moving into brick-and-mortar retail. At the same time, Walmart has been moving from traditional retail into the technology...

Read Story

SEC Cyber Chief Puts A New Type of Cryptocurrency Exchang...

The SEC's cyber chief Robert Cohen warns creators of this new type of blockchain exchange that they are still subject to regulations.

Read Story

Cord cutting accelerates as pay TV loses 1 million custom...

Pay-TV providers lost more than 1 million customers from July to September, the worst-ever decline a sign that cord cutting is accelerating.

Read Story

Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Barron's Disclosure:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

Markets end a four week sell off

by Fortem Financial November 5, 2018

The major indices rose last week despite declines on Friday. Investment sentiment improved as the Russell 2000® Index led all the major indices (+4.33%) followed by the Nasdaq (+2.65%), S&P 500® Index (+2.42%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.36%). Several factors, including strong corporate earnings and job gains, influenced the upturn. Disappointing earnings reports tended to be company-specific; for example, Apple reported better-than-expected earnings even though iPhone shipments were lower than estimates. The stock declined 6.6% as the company announced changes in reporting structure to shift investor focus to the growing application and services revenues rather than new sales. Conversely, Starbucks rose 9.7% on positive earnings trends in the U.S. and China, and new growth initiatives. In earnings conference calls, business executives have voiced mixed reactions to the impact and uncertainties related to trade tariffs. Trade issues with China took center stage on Friday after President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke by phone on Thursday; apparently, the leaders may hold a ‘side’ meeting at the G20 meeting later this month. President Trump has reportedly asked key U.S. officials to begin drafting potential terms to stop the escalating conflict. The process may be similar to the truce negated in July with European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker. However, President Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow stated, “There’s no massive movement to deal with China.” . . . “We’re not on the cusp of a deal.”

It has become more clear that China trade issues are moving equity markets. Our belief is that investors became too bearish in October over the idea of a cold war. Yes, China geopolitical tensions are building and will continue to grow in the coming years, but this is not a binary event. There is room for a future China trade agreement within the larger geopolitical tensions given that the President wants to win re-election in 2020 and he is acknowledging that trade tensions are impacting stocks and possibly growth.

China Trade Issues:

Around July 3rd, President Trump made a very important decision to ring fence the three different trade fights the US was engaged in: 1) NAFTA; 2) EU Autos; and 3) China. The President understood he could not win three trade wars and decided to deliver results on the first two trade matters with allies so he could focus on China. Immediately, NAFTA talks were resurrected despite the Mexican election, and four weeks ago Canada, Mexico, and the United States came to an agreement. In mid-July President Trump and European Commission President Juncker agreed to negotiate over possible zero tariffs on industrial goods. While a deal may or may not happen, as long as negotiators are talking, the prospect of auto tariffs on EU autos remains low. This strategy has started to produce dividends. Last week Germany announced the country will build an LNG import terminal.

Progress on the NAFTA and EU fronts isolated the China dispute. Investors will give Trump wide latitude on China if they believe the final result will lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers. Trump was imposing tariffs on China in September and stocks were moving higher with the belief a post-election deal was coming.

Taken altogether, the S&P 500 rallied nearly 8 percent from July through September, the VIX fell from 17 to 12, and there was no + or – 1 percent move in stocks for the three-month period.

Bullish sentiment on a China trade deal began to crumble on October 4th when Vice President Pence delivered a speech about the growing geopolitical threat of China. In light of these remarks, we saw investors downgrade the prospect of a China trade deal. This forces the models to assume existing tariffs will be in place for 2019, the proposed higher 25 percent rate will kick in January 1st, and a higher probability of an additional $267bn of goods getting hit with tariffs. Hence, the models for earnings and growth were revised down in 2019 while the Fed maintained a hawkish view of rates.

Longer term, the belief among analysts is that the prospect of a new cold war lowers multiples of stocks. In fact, we have shown that stocks traded at lower multiples prior to the Berlin Wall coming down. But once the Wall went down, the world globalized, inflation was restrained, and multiples expanded on stocks. In a new cold war, the world will de-globalize which leads to higher costs and ultimately lower multiples for stocks.

We believe the cold war thesis is being viewed as too binary of an option by investors. Trump wants to get reelected more than anything else. Is he really going to tank the economy before his reelection? Likely not. So why is he doing this now? Because it is a midterm election year and he is trying to ramp up his base. He also goes all in on his opponent before cutting the deal. Our guess is that Trump can cut a trade deal post-midterms and then ramp up the geopolitical pressure after his reelection.

For Trump, the largest middle class tax relief he can provide is to end the tariffs through a deal. And this will cost the Treasury not one penny.

The key takeaway from this week’s developments is not when or how a China deal will happen, but that the Pence speech is not the wall that investors believed would block a trade deal from happening, which led to recent equity market weakness. Directionally, trade is likely to improve post-midterm election even if a deal is not imminent.

Post-midterm election, the possibility of a trade deal will come down to the Chinese. If the Chinese offer soybean purchases, Trump walks. But if there is a meaningful move to lower tariffs and phase out joint venture requirements, that is a recipe for a deal Trump can take. The Chinese are already moving to the US position by lowering tariffs on non-US goods and ending the JV requirements for automakers. In our view, a deal involving lower tariffs and eliminating JV requirements is no longer making a special concession to the US but agreeing to US parity to what other countries already have. The off-ramp is there.

We don’t want to make this sound easy. It is not. But the prospects for a future deal are greater than what stocks are pricing in at the current time.

Our Economy is right on Track

The creation of 250,000 new jobs in October easily exceeded the estimates of 208,000. Unemployment remained at 3.7%, wages rose at a 3.1% annual rate and more people are re-entering the workforce. Last week several auto and truck dealers said manufacturers and suppliers have expressed a positive sentiment although many decried their low stock prices; some announced an increase in their corporate stock buyback program to take advantage of significantly undervalued prices. The resumption of stock buybacks has no doubt contributed to this week’s market recovery.

This week, all eyes will carefully watch the election results for potential leadership changes in Congress. Elsewhere, the technology sector seems to be forming a bottom following the sector’s decline into correction territory; also, both Amazon and Netflix fell into bear market territory. Overall, investors seem more worried about the tech selloff and trade tensions rather than other factors such as rising interest rates and an increasingly strong dollar. Importantly, continued economic growth could benefit balanced portfolios (that is, those without heavy overweighting in technology). Continued improvement in the geopolitical landscape over the next few months could increase investor confidence.

Source: (1) Strategas and (2) Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

China's Xi Again Talks Up Commitment to 'Free Trade'

Chinese President Xi Jinping took to the global stage to repeat his rhetoric against protectionism and promote his country as an advocate for international openness and cooperation.

Read Story

To Control Health Care Costs, U.S. Employers Should Form...

A hot labor market is limiting employers' ability to shift more costs to their workers.

Read Story

3 Things IBM Sees In Red Hat That Others Missed

IBM sees in Red Hat the world's largest portfolio of open source technology, their innovative hybrid cloud platform, and a cast open source developer community.

Read Story

Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Barron's Disclosure:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

Perspectives