Headline CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month and core CPI 0.2%, taking some pressure off the Fed to raise rates. But inflation remains sticky amid easier lending standards, stronger loan growth, and a growing money supply. Meanwhile, oil prices remain well below this year’s peak, with progressively less impact on financial markets, while bond yields continue to grind higher. Is a return to low and stable inflation really in the cards? Key Takeaways 1 . Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4%… View More
Is the ‘High-Risk Bull Market’ Getting Riskier? Stocks just posted their strongest week since April, thanks to exceptional earnings and renewed momentum in technology. The global economic expansion should continue to roll on, although U.S. and global equity markets remain heavily concentrated in technology/AI. For now, strong earnings are winning the tug-of-war against mounting market risks. The question is, for how long? Key Takeaways 1. July nonfarm payroll employment fell 23,000, m… View More
Three major releases landed in the past five trading days, and in each one the headline number and the underlying composition told different stories. Second-quarter GDP missed badly. Corporate earnings beat estimates by the widest margin on record. Manufacturing hit a four-year high this morning while survey respondents sounded miserable. Don’t let the headlines distract you from the data — the composition is where the useful information sits. Growth: A Weak Headline Over the Strongest … View More
Peak Profits & Margins? One of the biggest questions facing the market today is whether we are approaching peak profits. Capital expenditures have remained robust, and they continue to be a primary focus for investors. However, the prospect of peak profits could present an even greater challenge for the markets moving forward. Peak Profits and Margins Have To Be Top Of Mind Earnings season is in full swing, and expectations for profit growth continue to move higher. Consensus earnings… View More
Stocks Major U.S. indices finished the week lower in a tech-driven pullback. The S&P 500 declined ~1.5%, the Dow Jones fell ~0.8–0.9%, and the Nasdaq dropped ~2.5–2.9%. Semiconductors and AI-related stocks faced pressure amid concerns over high capital spending, Chinese competition in open-source models, and questions about near-term returns on massive data center investments. Broader rotation favored value, energy, and defensive sectors. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added … View More