Q3 Earnings Have Been Great but the Market is Still Not Happy

Companies including Adobe, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble reported strong earnings last week.  Notably, Procter & Gamble reported that high demand, rather than price increases, drove its strongest quarterly sales growth in five years.  Of the S&P 500® companies which have so far reported earnings, approximately 90% have exceeded analyst estimates.  Company commentaries reveal the limited impact of tariffs to date while concerns remain if the impasse continues.  U.S. and China apparently plan to meet in November; European and other Asian countries are providing support for the U.S. position regarding unfair bidding practices for infrastructure projects. Unfortunately more than corporate earnings affect the markets and currently there are a few things the market is watching.

Geopolitical events continued to trump strong earnings as new developments related to Saudi Arabia and Federal Reserve commentary weighed on the market.   For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500® Index eked out modest gains (0.41% and 0.02%, respectively).  Technology and small cap stocks fell fractionally as the Nasdaq dropped 0.64% and the Russell 2000® Index dropped 0.30%.

The disappearance and presumed murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has become a significant political and economic issue; Saudi Arabia has acknowledged that he died ‘during a fight’ in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.  The U.S. and its allies have not yet determined their responses; they will likely balance criticism of Saudi Arabia while maintaining relationships with the Kingdom as an offset to Iran’s role in the region.  Actions by the business community are perhaps sending a more important message; many high profile companies have withdrawn from attending and/or speaking engagements at next week’s “Davos in the Desert” financial summit in Riyadh; the summit is intended to showcase Saudi Arabia to attract new business investments to diversify their economy.  Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has invested significantly in Technology startups; retaliatory actions could dampen investments in venture capital deals.  And, perhaps coincidentally several companies, including Uber, Lyft and data mining Palantir Technologies, this week announced plans for IPOs in 2019; two years ago, Uber received $3.5 billion in funding from the Public Investment Fund, Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

Wednesday’s release of minutes of the most recent Fed meeting revealed mixed opinions on future interest rate increases needed to maintain a neutral position.  The markets continue to struggle in evaluating the impact of higher interest rates; the Fed, though, seems steadfast in setting a course of gradual, data-driven rate increases.  The big picture here suggests that the recent spike in interest rates may reflect investor concerns about the strong equity market rally; that is, the overvaluation of recent performance leaders may have unnerved investors.  For example, even though Netflix recently rose after reporting higher-than-expected new subscriber growth, ended the week in bear market territory, more than 23% below its all-time high in July. The market is more concerned with the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet (selling or letting Treasury bonds mature) causing bonds prices to go down and yields to rise. This Federal Reserve’s balance sheet ballooned in the financial crisis from $700mm to more than $4.5 Trillion from Quantitative easing. This is uncharted territory for our federal reserve and the federal reserves around the world who followed the U.S game plan during the financial crisis.  

When President Trump says the Fed is raising rates too quickly, he is not just talking about the rate increases at the Feds meetings but rather what the Fed policy is in totality and the affect it is having on prevailing interest rates.  The Federal Reserve has never been in this situation before and must proceed with caution.  We predict they will either hold on rate increases or slow their bond selling program.  Both are important for long term economic stability, but this too will take more time than anyone ever thought.  The world is watching to see how we deal with this before they pursue the same policy.  Time will tell, but we believe the Federal Reserve will address this situation in the next few months.

As with past geopolitical crises, the current crisis too will likely resolve over time; likewise, the sell off this month will trigger market activity. The Federal reserve does not want to slow the economy so much that is stalls. Why?  Earnings conference calls reinforce expectations for continued economic growth in 2019; and, companies, after reporting earnings, will be free to re-enter the market for stock buybacks.  Current prices may provide an important support for the market as earnings season progresses and geopolitical events unfold.

Source: Strategas and Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.


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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Seasonal Volatility is back in a big way... What should we be looking at now?

September and October are traditional the most volatile months of the year.  History shows us the largest one day percentage drop in history was 31 years ago, known as Black Monday, on October 19, 1987. On that day, stockbrokers in New York, London, Hong Kong, Berlin, Tokyo and just about any other city with an exchange stared at the figures running across their displays with a growing sense of dread. A financial strut had buckled and the strain brought world markets tumbling down. However, markets did not stay down for very long, by the end of '87 the downdraft was completely wiped away.

Despite Friday’s Technology-led relief rally, the two-day decline mid-week was the worst since February 2018.  For the week, the Russell 2000® Index fell 5.24%, followed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-4.19%), the S&P 500® Index (-4.11%) and the Nasdaq (‑3.74%).  Technology, which has driven the markets’ gains over the past few years, fell as investors feared that higher interest rates would dampen the sector’s future growth.  Last week’s declines, unlike the indiscriminate selling in February, were largely sector and stock specific.  Notably, several market darlings entered bear market territory (20% or greater decline from a 52-week high) or correction (10+% decline) with losses for Facebook (-30%), Netflix (-23%) and Amazon (-16%).   In comparison, the more moderately priced Apple (-9.3%), Microsoft (-9%) and Alphabet (-8.5%) avoided double digit declines.  These stocks, with their previously reliable price appreciation trends, were the ‘easy trade’ for many investors; and, passive index investors rode the wave.  Over the summer, though, indications of a rotation from Technology into value stocks emerged as some investors sensed that the growth momentum was unsustainable.  A further concern: so far this year, 83% of the Technology IPOs are companies which have never been profitable

On the international stage, the U.S. and China are showing some interest in a November meeting to discuss the basis on which trade negotiations might begin.  Tariffs are an emerging topic in earnings reports and commentaries: Fastenal and PPG Industries stock prices declined following commentary on the negative impact of tariffs on revenues and earnings.  The Chinese government has taken steps to stimulate economic growth with monetary easing and policy changes; for example, BMW received approval to take majority control of its joint venture with Brilliance Automotive.  In Europe, Brexit negotiations are fast approaching a critical deadline.  And, on Thursday, despite warnings from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, the Italian legislature approved a budget which targets a 2.4% deficit in 2019; yields on Italian bonds have soared although, European banks outside of Italy, which have only modest holdings in Italian debt, do not face the same exposure they had with the Greek debt crisis.

Oil prices declined this week as U.S. oil inventories rose while both OPEC and Russia reported production increases.  Inventories are often volatile this time of year as refineries rotate from summer to winter fuels, and reduce operations for routine maintenance.  Looking ahead, the bias toward higher oil prices reflects several issues including the loss, as of the November 1st embargo, of Iranian oil production; a steeper-than-projected production declines in U.S. fracking activity; and the overall lack of new oil production to offset natural depletion.

The recent spike in interest rates has unsettled the markets even though the economy remains healthy and inflation remains moderate.  Perhaps investors, companies and consumers are transitioning to the new paradigm of a normal interest rate environment.  On Friday, JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo reported double digit earnings increases.  Citigroup CFO John Gerspach echoed other bank executives in commenting, “The U.S. economy is performing very, very well . . . Now, the market is going to have to react to somewhat of a return to a more normal short-term rate structure.”  That is, higher interest rates are a natural result of accelerating economic growth.  Short-term, the markets may remain volatile; but, the markets should recover from the recent downturn, and investors will begin to identify companies well positioned to prosper

We read a great piece over the weekend in the wall street journal, and we thought we would share it with everyone. This article is timely and keeps the markets and our economy in perspective. Written by former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan and Adrian Wooldridge, the article points out the great run we have had as a nation, some of the obstacles we had to overcome, and it also gives a little insight as to where they think we are. Here is a quote from the article we found interesting:

“Some economists think that the U.S. is mired in a swamp of low growth. We prefer to think that it is trapped in an iron cage of its own making. Out-of-control entitlements and ill-considered regulations are condemning the economy to perform well below its potential. Swamps by their nature are very difficult to escape. Cages can be opened, provided that you have the right keys—and are willing to turn them.”

Source: Strategas and Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.


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Last Week's Headlines: 10/15/2018

1. The consumer Price Index for All Ubran Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in September on a seasonlly adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.3 percent brefore seasonal adjus...

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Stocks closed sharply lower as Dow sinks over 800 points in worst day since February

U.S. stocks slumped to close sharply lower today as the Dow Jones Industrial Average sank more than 800 points and the S&P 500 had its worst day since February as technology stocks went into a freefall. Investors were spooked by rising bond yields dumped equities in all sectors, triggering a broad market rout. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -3.15% skidded 831.83 points, or 3.2%, to 25,598.74, logging its worst one-day drop since February. The S&P 500 index lost 94.66 points, or 3.3%, to 2,785.68, falling for its fifth straight day, the longest losing streak since November 2016. The large-cap index’s losses were topped by the technology sector, which slid 4.8%, the steepest percentage drop since August 2011. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP fell 315.97 points, or 4.1%, to 7,422.05, its biggest decline of 2018.

What drove the market?

Many believe market action has been adversely affected by higher bond yields and interest rates, both of which could signal a new phase in post crisis markets that have enjoyed a protracted period of ultralow yields.

A rise in yields results in steeper borrowing costs for corporations and investors, and has caused a reassessment of equity valuations, already deemed lofty by some measures. On top of that, richer rates of so-called risk-free bonds can attract investors away from equities, which are perceived as comparatively riskier. However, rising yields are also seen as a reflection of a strong economy, one that has been supported by a number of strong economic data points.

Traders were also looking ahead to the start of the third-quarter earnings season, which unofficially begins later this week with results from major financial institutions. Broadly speaking, earnings growth is expected to be strong, which could provide an underpinning to equity prices, although there have been some concerns that expectations are too high, which could lead to disappointments.

In the latest economic data, the producer-price index rose 0.2% in September, while the core PPI was up 0.4%. Separately, wholesale inventories in the U.S. rose 1% in August. Late Tuesday, Dallas Federal Reserve President Rob Kaplan said he sees some inflationary pressures building, but that he doesn’t think there will be a sudden spike in prices. He also said he sees a risk of higher oil prices in coming years.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday had repeated his criticism of Fed policy, saying the central bank doesn’t have “to go as fast” with raising interest rates. The Fed has raised rates three times this year and it has indicated it would do so again in December. We believe the Fed has done a good job with its rate policy the last year or so to try and moderate a hot economy but the President may have a point. With the Fed selling bonds from its previous QE activity during the years after the financial crisis, it is putting more pressure on bond markets (increasing yields), The net effect is higher rates beyond the headline interest rate increases made by the Fed. We believe the Fed will slow the amount in which they raise rates in 2019 until they have sold off more of their balance sheet.

The other big news effecting the markets is our trade policies. President Trump embarked on a mission to renegotiate our unfair trade agreements with the current  strong economy at his back. His ambitious plan is working and he has secured new deals with Mexico and Canada, South Korea, and is in the final stages of a new deal with the European Union. China is the 800 pound gorilla and we believe Trump will look to make a deal with them once he has signed the pending renegotiated agreements with our other trading partners. In the latest on the trade-policy front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin warned Beijing against engaging in a competitive devaluation of the yuan, though he stopped short of accusing China of purposely weakening its currency. 

Chinese markets are down YTD and their economy has slowed enough to concern Chinese officials. We believe a deal can be made with China but it will not be easy and we are seeing some of that in the current market volatility.

What were analysts saying?

Sentiment is mixed, spurred by rising interest rates and a general heightened degree of investment difficulty. Bonds matter, trade policy remains a work in progress and the midterm elections are less than one month away. As interest rates trend higher, bonds become a more viable alternative to equities and valuation multiples tend to become compressed

In the short term, U.S. equity markets are becoming oversold and due for a rebound as the S&P tests first support at its 50-day moving average, the Nasdaq is at its 100-day moving average and the Russell 2000 is at its 200-day moving average at 1,600 support. We believe an oversold rally is likely to develop in the coming few days but volatility will be with us through the midterm elections.

Our take on the immediate cause is that interest rates have played a part.  Market's don't like uncertainty, and this change in rates is "new," and therefore introduces and element of uncertainty.  When rates spike as they have in the last few weeks, some reaction is unavoidable. Treasury rates are the foundation of valuation in all financial assets, and when they go up it will shake everything. However, it is more common to enter a bear market after an inverted yield curve than during a period of rising rates and strong fundamental economic data.  The recent rise in long-term rates has reduced the risk of the US yield curve inverting.  

Putting today's sell off in prospective. Our belief is that we are still much better off than we were in February of this year and a long way from any major market blow up.  Days like today are when you need to stay focused on your long term financial plan.  If you have any additional questions regarding today's sell off or would like to review your financial plan please feel free to reach out to us at your convenience.

 


 

Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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IMPORTANT CONSUMER DISCLOSURE

Fortem Financial, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

All statements and opinions included on this website are subject to change as economic and market conditions dictate, and do not necessarily represent the views of Fortem Financial or any of their respective affiliates. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that any views, outlooks, projections or forward-looking statements will come to pass. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and the profitability of any particular investment strategy or product cannot be guaranteed.

Any rating referenced herein may not be representative of any one client's experience. Further, the Firm's receipt of any rating is not indicative of the Firm's future performance. The Charles E. Merrill Circle of Excellence award is granted by Merrill Lynch for outstanding client service and satisfaction. The award is granted based on annual criteria established by Merrill Lynch for its top decile advisors. The Barron's Top 1,200 Financial Advisors rating of the top financial advisors in the United States is based on data provided by participating firms. The following factors are included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component. The Five Star Professional award is granted by Five Star Professional and recognizes service professionals who provide quality services to their clients based on data provided by participating firms. The award is granted based on the following ten objective eligibility and evaluation criteria: credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; favorable regulatory and complaint history review; fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; accepting new clients; one-year client retention rate; five-year client retention rate; non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; number of client households served; and educational and professional designations. Feedback from consumer surveys will augment a regulatory history review. Firms have the option to provide input on award candidates from their firm, regardless of the nomination source. The Palm Springs Life's "40 Under 40" Rising Young Professionals to Watch in the Coachella Valley is based upon nominations from the local business community and selected by the staff of Palm Springs Life.

For information pertaining to the registration status of Fortem Financial, please refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, operated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov., which contains the most recent versions of the Firm's Form ADV disclosure documents.

ACCESS TO THIS WEBSITE IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, REGARDING THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION POSTED ON THIS WEBSITE OR ANY THIRD PARTY WEBSITE REFERENCED HEREIN.