Better Inflation News, But...

U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +2.4%) more than erasing the prior week’s declines. The small-cap R2000 increased 3.6%. The main focus for the week was the June CPI report, which came in softer than consensus on both the headline and core readings. Best sectors were communication services (+3.4%) and consumer discretionary (+3.3%); worst sectors were energy (+0.6%) and consumer staples (+1.2%).   Source: Bob Doll, Crossmark Investments   Chart reflects price changes,… View More

Market Gains this Year Entirely Drive by Multiple Expansion

Expectations for 2024 S&P 500 operating earnings have fallen from $253 at the start of the year to $246 today. While this is only a modest decline, it means that the S&P 500’s entire +14.6% price gain year-to-date has been due to multiple expansion. This may have been easier to understand when 10-year Treasury yields plumbed their 2023 depths of roughly 3.3% in early April, but it is harder to justify now as the 10-year broke decidedly above 4% last week. A combination of slower expect… View More

The High Wire Act Continues

U.S. equities fell last week (S&P 500 -1.4%) as the S&P 500 broke a five-week streak and the NASDAQ an eight-week streak of gains. Higher-for-longer Fed policy remains a key piece of the bearish narrative. Best sectors were healthcare (+0.2%) and consumer discretionary (-0.0%); worst sectors were real estate (-4.0%) and energy (-3.5%).   Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments   Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it s… View More

Is the Recession Threat Dead?

Lately, it’s been easy to see the optimism. As of the Friday close, the S&P 500 is up 15% so far this year (not including dividends) and up 23% (again, without dividends) versus the lowest bear-market close back in October. Some investors attribute this to the Federal Reserve being very close to finished with the series of rate hikes that started back in March 2022. But that doesn’t really make sense. If investors thought the Fed were finished (or nearly finished) because it had tighten… View More

The Fed is All Mixed Up

If the Federal Reserve were paying close attention to the money supply, it would know that monetary policy is now tight. Through April, the narrow M1 measure of money has fallen for thirteen straight months. The broader M2 measure of money has dropped nine months in a row and is down 4.6% from a year ago. M3, a broader measure of money that includes large CDs, is down 4.1% from the peak last July. Meanwhile, bank credit at commercial banks as well as their commercial and industrial loans are bot… View More

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