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Perspectives

The Stock Market Recovery is Almost as Impressive as the Recent Decline

by Fortem Financial August 12, 2024

Stocks were down last week (S&P 500 -0.02%), although they nearly recovered from a significant decline on Monday (worst day in two years). A weaker-than-expected payroll report ignited fears about a behind-the-curve Fed and a potential hard landing. Best sectors were industrials (+1.22%) and energy (+1.19%); worst sectors were materials (-1.68%) and consumer discretionary (-1.00%).   The cause of the sell-off included: escalating concerns about an economic slowdown in the U.S., heighten… View More

OVERSOLD MARKETS, BUT AUGUST LOWS HISTORICALLY RARE… BE PATIENT

by Fortem Financial August 6, 2024

There are certainly pockets of the market more deeply oversold than others after the last few days, but on balance, we’d still stop short of calling this enough of a rinse to really lean into yet. It might be an easier call if it was October, but we frankly struggle to think of many markets that have put in their corrective lows in early August. Here’s a summary of our current thinking, but reach out with questions or requests—we’re available to help in any way.   On a scale of 1 to… View More

Uncertainty Levels Have Increased

by Fortem Financial July 29, 2024

U.S. equities were mixed again last week with the S&P 500 (-0.82%) and NASDAQ lower (- 2.08%) and the small cap Russell 2000 (+1.77%). Big tech/momentum were the biggest decliners. Best sectors were utilities (+1.47%), healthcare (+1.41%), and materials (+1.37%); underperformers included communication services (-3.76%), technology (-2.44%), and consumer discretionary (-2.31%).   The preliminary release of Q2 2024 U.S. GDP surprised to the upside (+2.8%) with the two largest drivers of t… View More

Is the Stock Market Broadening?

by Fortem Financial July 24, 2024

U.S. equity indexes were mixed last week with the market largely rotating out of big tech/momentum/growth into value/cyclicals/small caps. The S&P 500 Index was down (-1.95%); the NASDAQ fell (-3.65%); and the Russell 2000 Index was up (+2.33%). Themes included soft-landing hopes, expectations for a Fed rate pivot, and a surge in the “Trump trade.” Best sectors were energy (+2.06%), real estate (+1.32%), and financials (+1.19%); worst sectors were technology (-5.14%), communication servi… View More

So far, risk assets interpreting economic weakness as bullish (Fed can ease!)

by Fortem Financial July 15, 2024

Stocks ended higher last week (S&P 500 +0.87%), with small caps and equal-weight S&P 500 strongly outperforming the other major indexes following the post-CPI rotation out of big tech. The best performers were real estate (+4.37%) and utilities (+3.90%); the only negative sector was communication services (-3.57%).   Headline June CPI declined 0.1% m/m (versus consensus of +0.1%) (up 3.0% y/y). It was the first monthly drop since July 2022. Core CPI was +0.1% m/m (+0.2% consensus) a… View More

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Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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