A Strong Jobs Report, an AI-Led Selloff, and What the Evidence Actually Says In our June monthly commentary we flagged June 5 as the date to watch for the wage-and-jobs leg of the cycle. It arrived today, and the market’s response pulled two of our running threads into a single, unusually sharp session. The May employment report came in far stronger than expected, Treasury yields jumped, and equities sold off hard — led almost entirely by the artificial-intelligence and semiconductor na… View More
The doom-and-gloom narrative around the U.S. economy is loud, but the data continues to tell a different story. Markets just delivered an eighth consecutive weekly gain, with the S&P 500 closing Friday at 7,473.47, the Dow at a record 50,579.70, and the Nasdaq at 26,343.97.1 The market has, in effect, fully looked through the impact of the war with Iran. As we have said in prior weeks, when the headlines and the data disagree, we follow the data. The most recent data is, frankly, better tha… View More
To say the least, since its inception in 1913, the Federal Reserve has had its ups and downs. One thing most people don’t know is that, prior to the invention of the Fed, other than during wars, there was almost no inflation. Various sources , including the Federal Reserve regional banks, show that the purchasing power of $1 in 1900 was the same as or higher than it was in 1800. The Government did print and borrow money during wartime, which caused inflation during the War of 1812 and the Civ… View More
With roughly 60% of S&P 500 companies having reported, earnings growth estimates have climbed to 27.8%—nearly double the 14.4% expected at the start of the quarter. While mega-cap companies have delivered particularly strong results, growth expectations have improved across every sector except energy. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Equally notable, revenue growth is now exceeding 10%, with broad-based strength across sectors. 2026 full-year earni… View More
The federal government is still on an unsustainable fiscal path, with the national debt reaching $39 trillion in March and poised to rise further in the years ahead as we keep running budget deficits. However, beneath the headlines, both revenue and spending trends have shifted in a positive direction. Its possible investors are recognizing this, which may be helping buoy stock markets. On the tax front, yes, the Big Beautiful Bill enacted last year made permanent many of the temporary tax chan… View More