The Dog Days of Summer

If the temperature along the East coast this weekend wasn’t a reminder, with the dog days of summer also comes a shift in the market’s seasonal bias.  Ultimately, seasonality is a small consideration in our thinking, but it’s helpful in determining when to press or when to play more patiently.  With internal momentum starting to contract, we suspect the latter approach may prove prudent over coming weeks.  Whether it’s a market consolidation marked more in time or price is unknown, but there are some overbought conditions that likely need to be relieved.  We’re still of the position that pullbacks are to be bought, we’re just less sure of the market’s tactical standing.

The major indices closed lower after the S&P 500® Index and the Nasdaq reached record highs.   Last week, the Russell 2000® Index fell 1.41%, followed by the S&P 500® (-1.23%), the Nasdaq (-1.18%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.65%).   Late in the week, the markets seemed to lose momentum following earnings results and Iran’s capture on Friday of a second British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.  Also, investors continue to react to the latest speculation on potential Federal Reserve interest rate changes at its July 30-31 meeting.  Commentaries by Fed governors late in the week strengthened the market’s expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut.  Earnings projections by several major banks which reported earnings this week anticipate one to three rate cuts during 2019.

Trade concerns became even more complicated last week.  While uncertainties remain over trade negotiations between the U.S. and China, other developments took center stage.  In France, the Senate voted to implement a new ‘digital tax’ on large tech companies (including Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google) after the European Union was unable to finalize an EU-wide tax program.  Also, the decades-long dispute between Japan and South Korea over wartime occupation is effecting trade between the two countries as Japan limited the export to South Korea of high-tech materials used for memory chips.

Heading into earning season, analysts set a low bar with an expected 3% decline in earnings.  So far, 15% of the S&P 500® companies have reported, with 79% exceeding expectations.  The results, though, provide no clear message on market direction.  Microsoft posted surprisingly good revenues and earnings driven by a 39% increase in cloud-based revenues; still, the stock posted only a fractional (0.15%) gain in reaching an all-time high.  In contrast Netflix earnings declined over 10% on lower subscriber growth.  Financials such as American Express, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase beat earnings estimates yet closed lower in anticipation of lower interest rates.  And, companies in the transportation sector, which often provide an indication of future economic conditions, reported mixed results with commentaries on tariff-related uncertainties for the remainder of the year. 

This week, 25% of the S&P 500® will report quarterly results.  Management commentaries may continue to reflect concerns about on-going trade tensions as well as their initiatives to increase profits going forward.  Several issues, including corporate earnings and related commentaries; trade negotiations; and the Fed’s interest rate policy, may keep the markets in a trading range over the summer.

Source: Strategas

Chart reflects price changes, not total return.  Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

 


Latest News

Last Week's Headlines: 7/22/2019

1.Industrial production Industrial production was unchanged in June, as increases for both manufacturing and mining offset a decline for utilities. For the second quarter as a whole, industrial production declined at an annual rate of 1.2 percent, its second consecutive quarterly decrease. In J... 

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. 

Macroeconomic concerns drive the market causing many companies to remain undervalued

The equity markets treaded water for much of the week due to uncertainties related to the impact of last Friday’s strong jobs report on a potential rate cut.  On Thursday, the markets rose following Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s Congressional testimony.  In describing the economy as “in a very good place,” he added that his main worry relates to global growth and that many Fed members “have come to the view that a somewhat more accommodative monetary policy may be appropriate.”  His comments along with Wednesday’s release of Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting indicate that the Fed would be willing to cut rates if risks and uncertainties “continue to weigh on the economic outlook.”  Many interpret these comments to suggest a likely 25 basis point reduction in the fed funds rate at the late July meeting.  Ironically, the rate cut would return rates to the level prior to the hike which triggered the December equity selloff.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average led all market indices gaining 1.52% followed by Nasdaq (+1.01%), S&P 500® Index (+0.78%) and Russell 2000® Index (-0.36%).  On Friday, the S&P 500® crossed 3000 for the first time.

Trade discussions between the U.S. and China resumed by phone this week although the parties seem to disagree on commitments that were, or were not, made during President Trump’s discussions with President Xi at the G20 summit.  Peter Navarro, Assistant to President Trump, stated that talks are going well and meetings in China are being planned while China’s Commerce Ministry indicated that substantial discussions have yet to restart.  Company and market commentaries appear to welcome the truce while anticipating that any trade agreement will take months to complete.

The price of West Texas Crude (WTI) closed above $60 for the first time since late May as the U.S. Energy Information Agency reported back-to-back weekly inventory declines.  Also, disruptions caused by storms in the Gulf of Mexico and continuing turmoil in the Middle East fueled the rebound in prices.  The price rebound provided a boost to the equity markets as oil prices are often viewed as a reflection of global growth.

For the past month, macroeconomic concerns have driven market sentiment.  Many companies remain undervalued despite year-to-date gains in most of the major indices.  Next week, second quarter earnings reports begin with Citigroup, JP Morgan and Bank of America.  Earnings expectations are low; investors will focus on company commentaries regarding current business conditions, the impact of tariffs and expectations for the remainder of the year.  During the next few weeks, corporate earnings will likely take center stage in influencing market momentum. 

Source: Strategas

Chart reflects price changes, not total return.  Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

 


Latest News

Last Week's Headlines: 7/15/2019

1. The number of job openings was little changed at 7.3 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  reported today. Over the month, hires fell to 5.7 million and separations edged down to 5.5 million. Within separations, the quits and the layoffs and discharges rates. 

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Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. 

Slow week last week with the national holiday

While it’s hard to draw many conclusions from one of the lightest volume days of the year, we did find it notable that Friday’s weakness was not accompanied with any internal pressure.  In fact, advancing stocks actually outnumbered declining stocks +1.3 to 1 on Friday, despite the S&P finishing lower on the day.  Collectively about 83% of the S&P is trading above its respective 50-day moving average – consistent with a market that is likely short-term overbought, but more importantly, a reflection of momentum present under the surface.  It’s no secret that seasonality begins to wane as the dog days of August approach, and very low put/call ratios also increase the likelihood of a pause or consolidation in the near-term, but we remain inclined to view weakness as buyable.  The relative weakness from the Transportation stocks remains the biggest leadership blemish in our work, but the recent improvement in groups like Financials (Banks in particular) helps to fill the void.  84% of the Financials sector is back above its 200-day moving average, the best reading in roughly 16 months.

Q2 Earnings announcements start later this week so we will see how the market digests the news.

Source: Strategas

Chart reflects price changes, not total return.  Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

 


Latest News

Last Week's Headlines: 7/8/2019

1. May survey data signalled only a marginal improvement in the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The headline PMI fell to its lowest level since September 2009 as output growth eased and new orders fell for the first time since August 2009. Weak demand conditions and ongoing trade tension...

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How Automation Is Cutting Into Workers' Share of Economic...

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Are Strong Jobs Really Bad For Stocks?

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Kudlow says US-China trade talks to be held in person as ...

Kudlow later backed away slightly from his timeline, saying that the face-to-face talks would begin "soon" and that an announcement would be forthcoming.

Read Story

 


 

Brian Amidei is Coachella Valley's only Barron's Magazine Top 1,000 Advisor in 2013 and 2014!

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client?s experience or of the Firm?s future performance.  Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Barron's Disclosure:

The Barron's award is is based on the recognized adviser's assets under management, contribution to the firm's revenues and profits, and quality of practice.  Investment performance is not an explicit criteria.  Additional information about this award is available at http://online.barrons.com/report/top-financial-advisors. 

Five Star Professional Disclosure:

The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided.  Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf

Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved. 

Data Sources:  News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations.  Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).  All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. 

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice.  The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.  Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions.  As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict.  Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes.  Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing.  Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC.  Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks.  The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy.  The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange.  The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks.  The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide.  Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. 

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