Perspectives

Strategas’ Common Man CPI popped in March amid the energy shock resulting from the U.S war with Iran. As a reminder, the Common Man CPI (CMCPI) consists only of the components people must buy – Food, Energy, Shelter, Insurance, and Children’s clothing. Essentially, it is a “core” measure of inflation in the way a consumer, rather than an economist, would think of it. While the move in our measure m/m was lower than the 0.9% m/m increase of the headline CPI, consumers remain pressured … View More

In 2024, Republicans swept the White House, the Senate, and the House, allowing them to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. But the clock is ticking on their congressional majorities. At this point, we think the odds are very high that the Democrats will win back the House in the midterm election in November. Compared to 2024, the Democrats only need to gain three seats to take back the House. Historically, the party not in control of the White House – this cycle, the Democrats – have gained… View More

Summary Stocks fell again (S&P 500 -2.10%) (and to the lowest level since September) for the fifth week in a row with NASDAQ down ten of the last eleven weeks. Best sectors were energy (+6.22%), materials (+4.18%), and utilities (+2.94%); worst sectors were communication services (-7.17%) and information technology (-3.44%).       Key Takeaways President Trump extended his deadline for a deal with Iran for ten more days. This will likely prolong uncertainty and volatility in the f… View More

Structural forces from electrification to industrial growth are reshaping the U.S. power landscape. We have been commenting on this for the past year or so and have allocated our portfolios accordingly. We thought it may be a good idea to take a little deeper look into Energy considering what is going on in Iran and why this is important to you. After an unusually flat period over the past two decades, U.S. electricity demand is increasing again, marking a meaningful shift from prior consumpti… View More

In the aftermath of the first Internet stock-market bubble of the late 1990s, the economy went into a relatively shallow recession starting in 2001. That recession was precipitated by a tight monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates consistently above the pace of nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth plus inflation). In that sense – as a result of tight money – the 2001 recession was like the recessions of 1970, 1973-74, 1980, 1981-82, and 1990-91. Since tha… View More

February was a relatively quiet month for markets — the S&P 500 slipped -0.9%, the Nasdaq fell -3.4%, and the Dow edged up +0.2%. Then everything changed on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched joint military strikes on Iran. Within days, the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply normally flows — was effectively closed to shipping. The questions we've been hearing from clients are understan… View More

Summary Stocks declined for the second straight week (S&P 500 -1.99%; its worst performance since October). The war in Iran hit equities and other risk markets hard last week. The ratcheting up of geopolitical tensions added to pre-existing investor nervousness about excesses in AI-related equities, mounting strains in private credit, and high valuations. This triggered widespread selling pressure as investors rotated to cash. Best sectors were energy (+1.00%) and technology (-0.35%), worst… View More

Over the weekend, Israel and the United States launched an attack on Iran. Retaliation from Iran followed with missiles targeted at US military assets in the region and Israel. The Houthis have announced the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea with the intention of targeting US and Israeli ships. As we have noted repeatedly, the US does not move this level of military assets into a region to bluff. The placement of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and F-22 Raptors in the r… View More

The Trump Tariffs are dead - long live the Trump Tariffs? As we expected, the Supreme Court struck down most of the new tariffs President Trump had imposed since taking office thirteen months ago. While Congress granted the President “emergency” powers to regulate trade in a 1977 law, the Court ruled 6-3 that the statute does not explicitly authorize the use of tariffs under those powers. As a result, many of the recently imposed tariffs exceeded the authority Congress delegated to the exec… View More

Q4 Earnings Reporting ~75% Complete & 4Q Growth Being Reported As Strong With roughly 75% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings, results are coming in strong. Earnings growth is once again tracking in the double digits for a fifth consecutive quarter, an outcome that’s somewhat unusual at this stage of the economic cycle. The impact of AI-driven capex is clearly showing up in the numbers. The strongest growth rates are concentrated in the Technology, Communications, and Indust… View More