The Road Ahead for 2023

Is a U.S. recession or economic recovery in store for 2023?


Risk: With inflation peaking at 9.1% in June, a recession is now the No. 1 economic concern going into 2023. When businesses make less money due to lower consumer spending (triggered by dwindling reserves, price pressures and an aggressive Fed), companies lay off workers and more people are hesitant to spend. Weak expectations or prior over-investing also factor into the equation, with many firms feeling that large swaths of the economy could, or are already, experiencing worsening macro forces and a series of unknown variables (war, pandemic, energy prices, etc.).

"The new year is going to be tougher than the year we leave behind," said Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. "Why? Because the three big economies - U.S., EU, China - are all slowing down simultaneously. We expect one-third of the world economy to be in recession. Even countries that are not in recession, it would feel like recession for hundreds of millions of people."

Opportunity: Many corporations haven't slashed their profit forecasts, while hiring remains surprisingly robust and the unemployment rate is sitting near historical lows at 3.7%. If that resilience holds up and inflation continues to cool down, a soft landing could be in the making. The Fed also won't hike interest rates to the moon (and has even begun to take its foot off the accelerator), which could mean that somewhat of a slowdown is in store, but not one that slams the brakes on the economy.

"The U.S. may avoid a downturn in part because data on economic activity is nowhere close to recessionary," according to Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. "GDP grew 2.6% (annualized) in the third quarter," while the country added 261,000 jobs last month. "Even as financial conditions have tightened, the rise in real income is likely to be the stronger force next year. Unlike other bouts of high inflation, supply chains are normalizing as will housing rental markets - a source of disinflation that wasn't there during the 1970s - while spending is rotating from goods to services and inventories are rebounding.


Will central banks begin to pivot?


Risk: While inflation has eased recently, it is still way higher than the central bank's desired 2% target. "We will stay the course until the job is done," Fed Chair Jerome Powell declared at December's policy meeting, while ECB President Christine Lagarde added that, "we're not pivoting, we're not wavering." Last month, the Fed even raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 15 years, and some fear that heightened geopolitical risks or uncontrollable events could happen again, causing inflation to spring back and return to its upward ascent.

"Inflation forecasts were nowhere near high enough in 2022, and there's no reason to believe they'll be materially better in 2023. There's more risk of a high-side surprise," BMO Capital Markets macro strategist Benjamin Reitzes said in a research note. "In the future, it seems likely that supply chains will be shorter, more diversified and more resilient. Trade will likely narrow to more trusted partners and these changes will increase resilience, but at the cost of efficiency. And through this adjustment, production costs could rise, increasing price pressures."

Opportunity: The Fed raised rates seven times in 2022, pushing its benchmark from a range of 0% to 0.25%, to the current 4.25% to 4.50%. However, smaller increases were implemented in December and officials signaled that they only plan to keep raising rates to between 5% and 5.5% in 2023. Better outlooks are already materializing, with many seeing the Fed continuing to raise rates in the first quarter, pausing in the second and possibly cutting rates in Q3 or Q4.

"Slowing demand, price discounts due to elevated inventories and declining housing prices, among other factors, will help temper inflation, which should in turn prompt major central banks to pause and assess their recent historic string of rate rises," Morgan Stanley wrote in its 2023 Global Macro Outlook. "As consumer goods' supply chains recover and labor markets see less friction, we could see a sharper and broader fall in inflation, which would imply a somewhat easier path for policy and higher growth globally."


What will the year look like for stocks?


Risk: "Don't fight the Fed," is alive and well, with equities coming off a bruising year. Curtains have closed on the easy money era as investors demand cash generation and revalue unprofitable growth companies. Predicting a bottom is tough and many wouldn't be surprised if volatility still remains the name of the game. According to a recent analysis from 34 SA contributors, stocks are not likely to rebound in 2023, with the median expecting the S&P 500 to end the year at 3,799 (-1.0%) and the average seeing the benchmark index at 3,755 (-1.2%).

Many contributors predict that the S&P 500 will bottom-out at a much lower level than it is today, sometime in mid-2023, followed by some sort of rebound. The most optimistic forecast for the S&P 500 for 2023 is a rise of +35.8%, while the most pessimistic contributor who submitted a prediction for 2023 expects the index to close at 2685, or -30.1% lower. The Seeking Alpha Quant Rating for the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF) is also a Hold.

Opportunity: Some are more bullish on stocks, especially when looking at individual sectors. They highlight last year's outperformers, like energy (NYSEARCA:IYE) and defense (BATS:ITA), as well as insurance players (NYSEARCA:IAK) and some basic materials (NYSEARCA:SLX). When polled in late December, more than 62% of the over 2,400 respondents to Wall Street Breakfast's "Survey Monday" said that they would tilt most of their investments to equities in 2023, compared to cash (17.4%), bonds (12.2%), commodities (5.5%) and crypto (2.8%).

Elazar Advisors, author of Fed Trader, predicts the benchmark S&P 500 Index will rally some 20% to end the coming year at 4,520. "Recession is unlikely, inflation will drop, and interest income will add to the economy and help drive stocks higher," writes ANG Traders, Marketplace author of Away From The Herd. Also, check out the analysis and The Fortune Teller's Predictions For 2023.

Source: Seeking Alpha

Market & Index Changes for the Last Weeks of 2022

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv


Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500



Latest News


Southwest Airlines stock drops amid massive flight cancel...

By Senad Karaahmetovic


Read Story


TaxWatch: IRS pauses rule requiring people to report PayP...

The IRS is delaying a rule that would have required e-commerce sites and payment platforms to send out tax paperwork to a much wider swath of people in 2023.


Read Story


Supply Chains Upended by Covid Are Back to Normal

Ports are clear, shipping rates have plunged, retailers enjoy ample inventory and delivery companies have spare capacity.

The Wall Street Journal

Read Story


Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at:
Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved.

Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/ Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Fortem Financial

Recent Posts


Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at


Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

All statements and opinions included on this website are subject to change as economic and market conditions dictate, and do not necessarily represent the views of Fortem Financial or any of their respective affiliates. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that any views, outlooks, projections or forward-looking statements will come to pass. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and the profitability of any particular investment strategy or product cannot be guaranteed.

Any rating referenced herein may not be representative of any one client's experience. Further, the Firm's receipt of any rating is not indicative of the Firm's future performance. The Charles E. Merrill Circle of Excellence award is granted by Merrill Lynch for outstanding client service and satisfaction. The award is granted based on annual criteria established by Merrill Lynch for its top decile advisors. The Barron's Top 1,200 Financial Advisors rating of the top financial advisors in the United States is based on data provided by participating firms. The following factors are included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component. The Palm Springs Life's "40 Under 40" Rising Young Professionals to Watch in the Coachella Valley is based upon nominations from the local business community and selected by the staff of Palm Springs Life.

For information pertaining to the registration status of Fortem Financial, please refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, operated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, at, which contains the most recent versions of the Firm's Form ADV disclosure documents.