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Israel and the United States Launched an Attack on Iran

by Fortem Financial March 2, 2026

Over the weekend, Israel and the United States launched an attack on Iran. Retaliation from Iran followed with missiles targeted at US military assets in the region and Israel. The Houthis have announced the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea with the intention of targeting US and Israeli ships.

As we have noted repeatedly, the US does not move this level of military assets into a region to bluff. The placement of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and F-22 Raptors in the region was the final step taken this week before strikes commenced.

President Trump spoke over the weekend, detailing the history of Iran’s aggression against the US and the goals of the operation. The four goals of this operation are outlined by Trump:

  • Stop Iran from building a nuclear bomb.
  • Destroy Iranian missiles.
  • “Annihilate” the Iranian Navy, making it more difficult for Iran to attack US interests from sea. This is also critical for the oil markets.
  • Trump urged the population to retake their government.

It is likely this will be a rolling operation conducted over several days. As such, we are not expecting a “one and done” surgical event like Operation Hammer in June or like Venezuela in January. We expect the attack’s style to shift during nighttime hours.

US military planners leaked several stories to newspapers this week, stating that the success of this operation is not guaranteed. Trump specifically noted overnight that there is a risk of US casualties while this operation is in effect. In short, this will be very different from previous geopolitical events since Trump was elected. Below, we outline the concerns of US military planners.

This is important because there is little public support in the US for an attack on Iran, and previous geopolitical successes have had a limited impact on public support for Trump. He has a short window to act, and the operation carries significant risk.

There was a view building this week in DC that Trump would hit Iran and try to bring it back to the negotiating table. Part of the calculus is that removing some key leadership would create conditions for different negotiations. The view from within the administration was that the negotiations this week had stalled.

Actions taken this weekend were in broad daylight, Iranian time, with the goal of creating a surprise attack. Israeli strikes are focused on eliminating senior Iranian officials.

US strikes were initially focused on Iran’s missile program and missile launchers. Military planners saw Iran stockpiling ballistic and cruise missiles following the June Operation Hammer, and will be focused on reducing that stockpile to prevent retaliation.

Key military and government installations were targeted, including: Defense, Intelligence, naval bases, and aerospace facilities. The US was targeting not just the launch sites of the missiles, but also the locations where missile programs are developed. Trump noted in his State of the Union that he believed a missile program was being developed to target the US in the future.

Iran’s retaliation includes ballistic missile launches at population centers in Israel and US military assets in the Middle East. Initial targets appear to be the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. The only US base not targeted this morning was in Oman, which has played a role this week in trying to mediate a peaceful solution.

US military planners are concerned about: 1) Missile launchers; 2) Water mines; and 3) Fast boats getting close to US Naval resources.

Military planners were unsure how many missile launchers Iran still had compared to the number of US interceptors. The US supply has declined due to Israel’s 12-day war and Ukraine. Iran proxies in the region are also likely to be active. Should one Iranian missile get through, US or Israeli assets can suffer.

Another issue is whether the Strait of Hormuz is being mined. If so, even after the conflict, the global economy could be affected over the time it takes to demine the Strait.

US military planners, however, believe Iran is defenseless against US air and missile attacks after Israel took down Russian-provided military defense batteries.

Russia will oppose US action, but is occupied with Ukraine and lacks spare military assets to help Iran.

China has a more specific interest due to its outreach in the Middle East and its need for oil. On the one hand, China enjoys seeing the US focused on the Middle East and being criticized by other countries for US actions. China was caught off guard by Venezuela and Operation Midnight Hammer, and seemed more active in helping Iran this time around.

As we have noted previously, US foreign policy is no longer directed at China or Russia directly. Rather, Trump is targeting their proxies and making it more expensive for these countries to disrupt US interests via those proxies. Moreover, Trump is trying to redirect the proxies’ resources, such as oil, away from China and Russia’s use and/or distribution.

Venezuela was the first step in this process and delivered a policy change, with the country more aligned with US interests. Almost immediately after Venezuela, US military assets began moving towards Iran.

If the US is successful and has more coordination with Venezuela and Iran, the cost of a possible China blockade or attack on Taiwan increases substantially.

We believe Trump’s push on Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and Greenland is happening because of the Trump-Xi meeting, which is just 4 weeks away.

But Iran poses more challenges than Venezuela, particularly the leadership structure.

Trump is making it clear that he is creating the conditions for the Iranian leadership to fall. But all of this depends on whether the Iranian people rise up.

Regime change has been an Achilles heel of US foreign policy over the past 30 years.

Public opinion in the US is more aligned against an attack on Iran and will likely make US consumers and businesses less confident in the short run.

Reactions to the military actions are expected from members of both parties, including some Democrats and libertarian-leaning Republicans. The action took place shortly before Congress was set to debate the president’s war powers.

Source: Strategas

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 2/27/2026

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

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Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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