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Perspectives

New Hope in the Continued Bumpy Ride of War

by Fortem Financial March 30, 2026

Summary

Stocks fell again (S&P 500 -2.10%) (and to the lowest level since September) for the fifth week in a row with NASDAQ down ten of the last eleven weeks. Best sectors were energy (+6.22%), materials (+4.18%), and utilities (+2.94%); worst sectors were communication services (-7.17%) and information technology (-3.44%).

 

Equity Markets (Index Total Return %) S&P Equity Sectors (Index Total Return %)

 

Key Takeaways

  1. President Trump extended his deadline for a deal with Iran for ten more days. This will likely prolong uncertainty and volatility in the financial markets.
  2. Mortgage application volumes fell 10.5% in the week ending March 20, extending the prior week's 10.9% decline as the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.43%, a five-month high driven by the surge in long-dated Treasury yields.
  3. The war is currently only four weeks old, but it appears that the significant increase in commodity prices could be more lasting as damage to the region's infrastructure may take years to repair.
  4. A 2% inflation target is what most developed market central banks aim for, but history keeps delivering shocks that pull inflation higher. Some are "outside" events - wars, comodity disruptions, pandemics. Others are "inside" - bigger monetary and fiscal responses to downturns.
  5. Investors are largely focused on the shipping status of the Strait of Hormuz (appropriately) but less attention has been paid to the Treasury market. (The U.S. is now facing slower growth, more fiscal spending, and a change in the outlook for Fed policy. The net effect is the Treasury market is pricing in more issuance.)
  6. Front-end rates have whipsawed as markets struggle to price the energy shock. Short-term rates across developed markets moved sharply over the past few days. Led by the UK, markets priced out remaining cuts for this year and moved to price hikes.
  7. Recent high-profile private credit strains do not signal broad systemic risk. Private credit's share is modest, banks are easing lending standards amid likely to be lessened capital constraints, bank loan growth is accelerating, bond issuance is strong, and junk bond spreads remain tight.
  8. The negative oil pillar may be front-of-mind right now, but positive pillars include : fiscal (capex expensing, deregulation, tax refunds, lower tariffs), monetary (lagged effects of -175bp cuts, expanding Fed balance sheet), and productivity.
  9. Stocks are down about 9% from the highs but importantly the P/E multiple on forward earnings is down by 16%.
  10. The bull case for stocks is the war in Iran ends, Europe has easy money, Japan has easy money, Kevin Warsh cuts U.S. rates by 200 bps, and it is away to the races.

Source: Bob Doll, CEO, CTO, Crossmark Investments

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 3-27-26

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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