Well, it took just 55 trading days for the S&P to roundtrip from the 4/8 closing low to Friday’s 6/27 cycle high, even beating the 1998 analogue by a few days as the fastest example in 75 years following at least a -15% drawdown (using closing lows / closing highs for consistency).
The velocity of the move was a surprise, but it’s again a reminder that when the S&P 20-day highs expand through 50% (as they did in early-May) spend more time thinking about what could go right than wrong. Speaking of 20-day high expansions, the Financials have come to life again (48% of the sector at a 20-day high on Friday) and continue to carry the leadership baton.
It’s a similar story for both Industrials and Tech, but it’s the recent shot of life from the Discretionary stocks we’re most intrigued by. Consumer Discretionary 20-day highs expanded to roughly 30% last week (improving), and the Discretionary vs. Staples pair (equal-weight) made a fresh 3-month high on Friday. There’s even a pulse coming from Housing, along with the Transportation stocks as well. NKE was also on the +2 sigma list on Friday with its best day in years.
Source: Strategas
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.
Sincerely,
Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com
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