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Perspectives

Weekly Market Commentary

by Fortem Financial February 9, 2026

Market Multiple Has Fallen Below Its 3 Year Average

For the first time since Liberation Day, the S&P 500’s multiple has fallen below its three-year average, a level that over the past several years, has typically been associated with a resumption of multiple expansion. One of the more surprising developments so far has been the strength of corporate earnings alongside continued stock selloffs. Notably, the prospect of increased capex spending, which was viewed positively last year, is no longer being received the same way. This shift may reflect growing shareholder concerns about how that spending will ultimately be funded.

 

S&P 500 Forward Price to Earnings Ratio

 

The Dip In Technology Multiples Is Getting To Extreme Territory

The irony of AI is that the technology sector, which benefited so much last year, is now bearing the brunt of concerns about the potential decline of the software industry. Sector multiples have compressed rapidly, falling from 28x to 23x in just two months. This magnitude of compression is more typical of broader market corrections. For context, in 2022 multiples declined from 27x to 18x, and last April they compressed from 27x to 21x.

 

S&P 500 Technology Forward Price to Earnings Ratio

 

A Basket Of Companies Not Mentioning AI Is Showing Strong Performance

A basket of companies constructed, comprised of firms that did not mention the term “artificial intelligence” on their earnings calls, has delivered strong performance over the past week (which should come as no surprise). From an industry perspective, the basket is far more diversified than one might initially expect. Notably, technology has no representation at all.

 

Strategas "No AI Mentions" Basket Relative S&P 500 Index

Source: Strategas

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 2/6/2026

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

Latest News

 

US software stocks tumble sparks concerns that AI trade is reshaping markets

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Novo Nordisk sues Hims after $49 weight-loss pill sparks FDA backlash

Novo Nordisk sued Hims and Hers Health on Monday over patent infringement after the U.S. telehealth firm launched, then cancelled, a $49 copy of Novo's weight-loss pill Wegovy following a swift backlash from U.S. authorities.

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved.

Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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