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Perspectives

Weekly Market Update

by Fortem Financial July 28, 2025

With another week’s worth of data in the books, the U.S. economy looks ok. Inflation is not a problem. We continue to believe that any (eventual) inflation pop due to tariffs should be “transitory” with monetary policy restrictive. The consumer still has some momentum. Yes, there are some impaired U.S. sectors (eg, housing), but this is not new news. Manufacturing – which has been weak – may be starting to recover for the first time in over two years.

There have been considerable shocks (trade) and cushions (fiscal, regulatory) to economic growth & inflation in 2025. We are probably set up for several additional choppy months ahead. Some of the shocks due to political uncertainty are ongoing (as exemplified by the odd Fed construction tour in D.C. last week). To cut through the noise, our base case remains that the U.S. economy will make it through the recent volatility without a recession, since corporate profit growth is still positive y/y.

True, growth in the private sector is slowing. Some of this shift is related to reduced labor supply – ie, it’s structural not cyclical. That’s why the U.S. unemployment rate is not rising in 2025.

Looking ahead to 2026, the situation should improve. The recently passed U.S. tax bill should provide a boost to corporate capex. Deregulation should also support activity. There could be other supports if the Fed resumes rate cuts later this year, as we expect (cuts will affect the economy with a lag). Each week that goes by with “good enough” data (eg, initial jobless claims at 217,000 last week) gets us closer to that point.

Source: Strategas

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 7/25/2025

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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