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Perspectives

Weekly Market Update

by Fortem Financial October 7, 2025

Key Takeaways

 

  1. In the absence of the usual monthly payroll report, the September ADP report contracted by 32k jobs, missing expectations and extending the trend of weakening employment.
  2. The September Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey missed expectations, confirming weak growth and employment momentum.
  3. Consumer confidence fell again (from 97.8 to 94.2), reconfirming weakening labor signals.
  4. It is hard to justify the resumption of a Fed rate-cutting cycle when the economic expansion is durable and growth is above potential, labor market remains tight, and while inflation remains above target.
  5. The bank regulatory economy is trending in the most positive direction in nearly 20 years.
  6. Q3 earnings will likely come in strong as tariffs have proved to be less of a factor, the U.S. economy remains resilient, and USD weakness has supported large multi-national firms.
  7. High valuations and extreme market concentration have prompted comparisons to the dot.com bubble, but key differences exist. Unlike the late 1990s, today's growth stocks are delivering robust double-digit growth, strong margins, and good cash-flow generation.
  8. With three quarters now complete, fewer than 30% of active large cap managers are outperforming, a sharp decline from earlier in the year when more than half were ahead of their benchmarks. A key driver of this shift has been the renewed dominance of the Mag 7.
  9. The Russell 2000 small cap index is outperforming the S&P 600, another small cap index. (The S&P 600 requires companies to demonstrate positive earnings before being included, while nearly 40% of R2000 companies are producing losses.)
  10. The average government shutdown length is eight days, but our guess is this one will last longer. Markets are generally mostly unaffected by shutdowns.

Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments CEO

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 10/3/2025

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved.

Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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