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Perspectives

What's Important Now

by Fortem Financial December 1, 2025

In today’s Investment Strategy Note, we discuss the undeniably strong profit trends, begin to consider the narrative heading into 2026, and address the two near-term risks we continue to observe.

 

Profit Growth Continues To Trend Higher

With the third quarter reporting season nearly wrapped up, the fundamental backdrop for equities remains supportive as we move toward 2026. As of the end of November, the subsequent twelve-month earnings growth stands at 12.5%, the highest level since January. South Korean export data, which historically shows a 0.7 correlation with the S&P 500 NTM EPS, was released last night and also points to continued strength in S&P earnings. That’s particularly encouraging for the technology sector.

If there’s one area of fundamental risk, it’s the continued concentration within the index. The top 10 companies now account for approximately one-third of total net income, meaning a miss from any major large-cap contributors could materially affect the overall earnings outlook. For now, though, growth remains robust with just one month left in 2025.

 

Understanding the 2026 Narrative As We Sit Here Today

With many investors now shifting their focus to the 2026 outlook, today’s narrative largely centers on two themes: continued AI-related capital expenditures, albeit at a slower pace, and the potential for an economic reacceleration supported by fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve policy. While AI Capex growth will naturally moderate after such outsized investment levels, a key question is whether companies that issue debt to fund this spending will continue to receive the exact valuation multiples they enjoyed earlier in the cycle.

As for the prospect of an economic reacceleration, much of the story begins with the current holiday shopping season. We are closely monitoring daily credit card spending data, and each incremental softening makes a rebound in growth harder to envision. The encouraging news is that spending over the holiday weekend remained solid. The question now is whether consumer momentum can be sustained through the end of the year.

 

Crypto Deleveraging Continuing To Weigh On Risk Sentiment

Seeing the market rally last week and watching our basket of companies with levered single-stock ETFs begin to turn higher was an encouraging near-term sign. That said, with crypto deleveraging resuming this morning, we remain patient before becoming more optimistic about risk. For now, we continue to take a more risk-aware stance.

Source: Strategas

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 11/28/2025

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

Latest News

 

Asia's factories stumble as US trade deals fail to revive demand

In China, the world's largest manufacturer, factory activity slipped back into contraction. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also reported declines in activity.

Reuters

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AI helps drive record $11.8 billion in Black Friday online spending

Although U.S. consumers spent more this Black Friday compared to last year, price increases hampered online demand, according to Salesforce.

Reuters

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:
Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved.

Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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