A Welcome Pause that Refreshes

Stocks were sharply higher (S&P 500 +6.6%), breaking the multi-week downward trend. As we covered in recent weeks, stocks rallied on a large oversold condition and extremely negative sentiment. The best sectors were consumer discretionary (+9.3%), energy (+8.2%), technology (+8.1%), and financials (+8.1%); the worst sectors were healthcare (+3.3%) and communication services (+3.6%).

What we’ve found notable about the market’s rally over the last week is that it hasn’t put any dent in Energy’s strength, even as the most oversold groups have bounced hard – some 70% of the Energy sector traded to a 52-week high on Friday, among the most robust readings of the entire cycle. Crude hasn’t flinched either, with WTI pushing $120 this morning and Brent breaking out from its 3-month consolidation phase as well… the likelihood of new highs continues to seem like a reasonable call for both. The +9% rally for the S&P over the last 5 days has us thinking about typical bear market rallies. “Typical” or “average” are words to be used loosely in this business, but 6 to 8 week rallies of roughly 15% are not uncommon in downtrends. Breadth has been better recently than the failed March rally, but the % of issues with a +2 standard deviation advance remains too light to declare escape velocity (just 3% on Friday).

THE FULL LIST

Source: Bob Doll, CIO Crossmark, Strategas


Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 


 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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