December 2022

Post 1 to 8 of 8

Still Unprecedented

What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%, and we should expect a grand total of three 25 basis point (bp) rate hikes by the end of the year. Instead, it looks like real GDP will be up about 0.5%, PCE prices will be up 5.6%, and we had the equivalent of seventeen 25 bp Fed rate hikes, finishing the year at 4.375%. So, if you feel a little dizzy about all… View More

No gift giving to scammers this Holiday Season

Be Aware This Holiday Season. Many of us spend the holidays relaxing and sharing in goodwill with friends and family. But some bad actors use the holidays to take advantage of people’s generous spirits. Scammers frequently target the older and other more vulnerable members of our communities. They pretend they are from Social Security or another government agency to steal your money or personal information. Caller ID, texts, or documents sent by email may look official, but they are not. F… View More

Bob Doll's 10 Predictions for 2022 Revisited

We have been following one of our favorite portfolio managers for more than 20 years. Bob Doll was the chief investment officer and lead portfolio manager for Merrill Lynch asset management when we started in the business back in 1998. Every year Bob produces his 10 predictions for the next year, and we use it as a guide as to what we can expect in the upcoming year. Bob has track record of better than 70% and in our business that is an unbelievable batting average. This week we bring to you Bo… View More

An Investor's Letter to Santa Clause - The Substance of Things Hoped For

Dear Santa, We were largely good investors this year, remembering always and everywhere one of the cardinal rules of investing – “Don’t fight the Fed” either when it is easing or most especially when it’s tightening. We stuck with Energy and basic materials stocks. Ironically, we made more money on our longs than we did our shorts in a bear market. This was largely due to the lack of discipline and violating another investment bromide – never let a profit turn into a loss. After all… View More

Interest Rates Are Going Higher Than Expected

The Fed downshifted to smaller rate hikes but isn’t close to done. In contrast to the 75 basis point rate hikes at each of the last four meetings, the Federal Reserve raised short-term rates by only 50 bps YESTERDAY, as expected. However, the Fed made it clear in its projections and at the press conference that it is tilted toward further rate hikes in the months ahead and more rate hikes than the markets have been pricing in. Today’s Fed statement was virtually identical to the one in No… View More

Energy Reliability & Security to Remain a Major Investment Theme in 2023

In January 2020 President Biden entered office and declared he was going to change the energy policy in America at a record pace. We were going green baby and Biden was the man to take us there in record time. Then a few months later in March of 2020 when the markets thought the world was coming to an end because of Covid-19 and the markets lost more than 50% of its value in a matter of weeks, one economic sector caught our eye. The energy sector has long been a bellwether but had not performed … View More

Annual Gifting

Below we have outlined a list of reminders as you consider your options for Annual Gifting.   Don't Forget to Give to Charity As the end of the year and the holiday season approach, we will all see an uptick in the number of charitable solicitations arriving in our mailboxes and by email. Since some charities sell their contributor lists to other charities, frequent contributors may find themselves besieged by requests from all sorts of charities with which they are not familiar. Watch Out … View More

Economic Update

The U.S. economy does not appear to be in a recession right now. But risks continue to skew to the downside, in our opinion. We believe there’s a 75% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 2 years. The employment situation continues to show a tight U.S. labor market. Despite some notable tech layoff announcements, U.S. nonfarm payrolls in November rose +263,000 m/m, with only small revisions to prior months. Workers who are fired seem able to get new jobs quickly (consistent with still-elevat… View More

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PRIVACY NOTICE REGARDING CLIENT PRIVACY

Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at www.fortemfin.com.

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