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War MOU Needs Work; Fed Sends Yellow Light

by Fortem Financial June 22, 2026

A deal to extend the ceasefire in the Middle East has finally been agreed, allowing energy prices to decline further and risk-asset markets to resume their pre-war bull run. The history of the Middle East points to inevitable bumps ahead. A lasting peace has not been achieved, and some of the players are not agreeing to stop at this juncture. Should investors expect setbacks ahead?

 

Summary

Equities were higher last week with the DJIA and Russell 2000 hitting record highs, while the S&P 500 (+1.47%) was up for the eleventh week of the past 12. The biggest upsde driver was the U.S. and Iran peace agreement that reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Best sectors were technology (+3.45%) and industrials (+3.26%); worst sectors were energy (-5.85%) and health care (-3.01%).

 

1. The Fed held its policy rate in a 3.5-3.75% range as the easing bias was dropped. The meeting marked a new era for Fed communication, with a much shorter statement and little, if any, forward guidance.

2. Fed Chair Warsh has shifted in a distinctly hawkish direction and made it clear that returning inflation to 2.0% is his overriding objective.

3. Headline and core CPI inflation rates have both exceeded the Fed's 2% target for five consecutive years.

4. The June University of Michigan Consumer Expectations survey beat estimates (48.9 versus 44.8), and lower inflation expectations (long-term expectations moving from 3.9% to 3.4%) give the Fed more room to stay on hold.

5. May retail sales surprised to the updside, with headline sales rising 0.9% m/m (versus 0.6% consensus).

6. The three-month moving average of payroll employment gains is 188k, the highest since December 2024, confirming that hiring is improving.

7. The U.S.-Iran deal is positive for risk-taking in the near term. That said, we caution that a lot of good news is already discounted.

8. The U.S. and Iran are presenting substantially different versions of what they have agreed to, so it's difficult to tell whether the differences between the two sides have been bridged significantly already or whether they will be in the next 60 days. (We doubt they will.)

9. We believe that after the midterm election, the Trump administration will likely renew military pressure to try to get better terms.

10. Earnings estimates for 2026 have increased 17.3% since Jan.1. Stocks have advanced on that despite some P/E decline.

Source: Bob Doll, Crossmark Investments PM/CIO/CEO

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 6/19/2026

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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