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Weekly Market Commentary - Week Ending September 25, 2026

by Fortem Financial September 22, 2026

Will Something Break? Bond Yields, Inflation, & Market Risk

Bond markets have weakened steadily in recent months despite widespread rate hikes and hawkish central-bank rhetoric. Firming global growth, accommodative monetary conditions, expanding budget deficits, a surge in AI-related corporate borrowing, and sticky inflation have all pushed yields higher and dashed hopes for lower rates. Meanwhile, political efforts to cap U.S. Treasury yields have backfired.

 

Summary

Stocks were mixed last week (S&P 500 -0.06%). Equal-weight S&P lagged cap weight by more than 100 basis points (bps). Big news of the week was the Fed rate hike, oil crossing $100, and AI crosscurrents. Advancing sectors were health care (+1.85%), communication services (+1.15%), and technology (+1.06%); worst decliners were utilities (-3.02%), financials (-2.33%), and real estate (-1.97%).

 

Key takeaways

1 . The Federal Reserve raised the funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) (to 3.75% - 4.00%), kicking off a new tightening cycle. The Fed is unanimous in expecting a mild total tightening cycle of 50-75 bps, but that outcome is contingent on a rapid drop in core inflation in 2027.

2 . Fed Chair Warsh stated, "The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long." This points to a rate hiking campaign.

3 . After seven of the last eight first Fed rate increases, bonds were lower six months later.

4 . The median FOMC participant sees core inflation coming in at 3.4% in 2026 but falling to 2.5% in 2027. We directionally agree with the Fed's inflation view but the amount of decline seems questionable.

5 . Driving inflation are too-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies; M2 grew 7% over the past six months, with federal outlays accelerating to 5.2% y/y so far this fiscal year. And bank loans are growing 7% with upside, given they are easing lending standards.

6 . Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model revised its Q3 real GDP growth estimate from 4.4% to 5.1%.

7 . U.S. private employers added the most jobs since early July, suggesting that the economy continues to operate at full employment.

8 . The resilience of global equities over the past two years has been remarkable. Stocks have risen despite a trade war in 2025, a lingering conflict between Russia and the West in Ukraine, another war in the Middle East that partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint, and, most recently, global yields hitting decades-high levels. This strength reflects robust earnings, powered by an exceptional boom in AI capex and tech investment more broadly.

9 . The S&P 500 is trading at 19 times forward earnings, in line with its 10-year average. The catch is that earnings reflect very high profit margins.

10 . While the S&P 500 is only down about 3% from its 52-week high, the average S&P 500 stock is down roughly 20%. The point is that the pain beneath the surface has been much greater than the headline index suggests.

Source: Bob Doll, CFA, PM/CIO/CEO Crossmark Investments

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 9/18/2026

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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