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Weekly Market Commentary - Week Ending September 18, 2026

by Fortem Financial September 15, 2026

Bond Yield Increases Are Finally Impacting Equities

Stocks pulled back last week as oil approached $100 per barrel, inflation remained elevated, and bond yields continued to rise. Investors are grappling with an escalation of war on two fronts: the military war between the U.S. and Iran, and the trade war between the U.S. and Canada. The still supportive global economic outlook implies the uptrend in earnings will persist, but the risks of a slowdown as 2027 develops are material. Get Bob's take:

 

Key takeaways

1 . The August CPI rose 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y. This remains significantly higher than the Fed's 2.0% target and raises the probability of a Fed hike next week.

2 . The August jobs report reinforces our view that the Fed has little reason to worry about the employment side of its dual mandate. It leaves Fed policymakers free to focus on inflation.

3 . The largest upward earnings revisions have been concentrated in industries tied to AI capex spending and energy.

4 . The earnings pre-announcement ratio is currently at 0.6 negative to positive revisions. When the ratio has been this low in the past, forward returns have tended to be underwhelming.

5 . Earnings growth, while more than 50% in Q2, is expected to slow to 1.5% by 2Q27.

6 . Gasoline futures are up 30% since early August, and one-year inflation swaps are back to their highest level since mid-June. This is beginning to negatively impact the consumer discretionary sector.

7 . The level of yields matters less for equities than how quickly rates move.

8 . Historically, stocks are most in danger when rising sharply while ignoring a sharp rise in long-term interest rates. The direction of long-term interest rates is important, but a big top in stocks likely requires a more violent rise in the 10-year than we have seen thus far.

9 . Stock market bottoms are events, while tops are processes.

10 . The Federal budget deficit is currently running at around 6% of GDP, a level more commonly associated with recessions than economic expansions. CBO projections suggest deficits will remain above 6% of GDP for many years to come.

Source: Bob Doll, CFA, PM/CIO/CEO Crossmark Investments

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 9/18/2026

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

Latest News

 

Oil prices climb over 2% after strikes on Saudi pipeline and ships in Middle East

Brent crude futures ‌rose to $108.23 per barrel.

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Unwanted in the US, old oil equipment finds a new home in Venezuela

In the sweltering heat in Humble, Texas, just outside Houston, two workers were flattening out a yard with heavy compaction rollers, making room for pre-owned and auctioned ​U.S. oilfield equipment destined for a hoped-for oil revival in Venezuela.

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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