Earnings Season Kicks Into Full Gear This Week...

Markets were relatively flat last week as investors gear up for third quarter earnings season (more on this below). Economic data were broadly positive and continue to point to healthy economic conditions. September retail sales grew at their fastest pace since March 2015, due in part to hurricane-related replacement activity for autos and automotive supplies. Of note in the report, building materials sales were strong, gaining 10.7% year-over-year, while online retailers (+9.2%) continued to take share from traditional “brick-and-mortar” stores. Inflation increased slightly as both the consumer price index (+2.2%) and producer price index (+2.6%) were higher compared to August; the data should enable the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December, as expected. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened for the first time in over a month; year-to-date, the dollar has declined roughly 9% against a basket of major trading currencies. Notably, the dollar is down nearly 11% against the euro as the European economy has strengthened and the European Central Bank prepares to curtail its bond-buying program. In this instance, the declining dollar is a function of improved economic growth overseas rather than an indication of a faltering domestic economy.

Earnings season kicked off last week with banks in focus. JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Citigroup all exceeded analysts’ earnings expectations, while Wells Fargo fell short. For JPMorgan, core loans grew 7% year-over-year, while net interest margin (a measure of profitability) improved. At Bank of America, reduced provisions for loan losses and lower expenses more than offset soft fee income. Citigroup reported strong equity and fixed income trading revenues which were partially offset by higher credit card costs. And, results at Wells Fargo were impacted by litigation expenses; excluding these charges, though, performance would have exceeded analysts’ estimates. Despite the generally upbeat reports, shares of all four banks were down for the week, likely due to profit-taking; with the exception of Wells Fargo, the banks had produced solid returns thus far in 2017. Airlines gained on a better-than-expected earnings from Delta Air Lines, along with upbeat investor updates from United Continental and American Airlines, both of which report earnings later this month. Importantly, all three indicated that pricing competition has stabilized, which should aid industry profitability and assuage investor concerns heading into the busy holiday travel season.

This week, 52 companies in the S&P 500® Index report results. These include industry bellwethers such as: Johnson & Johnson, Goldman Sachs, International Business Machines, Verizon Communications, General Electric, Procter & Gamble, Schlumberger, and Honeywell International. Also, Netflix will provide its quarterly update; the stock, which has gained more than 60% year-to-date, is one of the popular FAANG companies that have led the market’s advance, and captivated investor interest, for much of the year. The broad swath of earnings reports will provide a comprehensive view of the economy and could contribute to increased trading volumes and market volatility over the near-term.

* Source: Pacific Global Investment Management Company

Chart of Market/Index as of 10/13

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

 

 

Last Week's Headlines

  1. Inflationary pressure may be gaining some traction, but only minimally. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in September, largely due to a 13.1% increase in the gasoline index. Over the last 12 months, the CPI has risen 2.2%. Core prices, less food and energy, increased a slight 0.1% in September. For the 12 months ended in September, the core CPI is up 1.7%.
  2. Retail food and service sales increased 1.6% in September after falling 0.1% in August. Vehicle sales (3.6%) and gasoline sales (5.8%) contributed to the overall retail sales price increase. Retail prices, less auto and gas, increased 0.5% for the month. For the 12 months ended in September, retail sales have increased 4.4%.
  3. The prices producers receive for goods and services advanced 0.4% in September after moving up 0.2% in August. For the 12 months ended in September, producer prices have increased 2.6%, the largest rise since a 2.8% increase for the 12 months ended February 2012. Prices for services climbed 0.4% and prices for goods rose 0.7%. Over 80% of the September advance for goods prices can be traced to rising energy prices (particularly gas prices), which climbed 3.4%. Higher energy prices were likely the result of reduced refining capacity in the Gulf Coast area due to Hurricane Harvey. Adding some perspective, prices less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.2% in September, the same as in August.
  4. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of job openings decreased slightly in August, falling to 6.08 million from July's 6.14 million. Job openings increased in health care and social assistance (+71,000) and in durable goods manufacturing (+31,000), and dropped in other services (-95,000), educational services (-51,000), and nondurable goods manufacturing (-48,000). Total hires declined from 5.52 million in July to 5.43 million in August, while total separations fell to 5.23 million from July's total of 5.36 million. Over the 12 months ended in August, hires totaled 63.8 million and separations totaled 61.7 million, yielding a net employment gain of 2.1 million.
  5. In the week ended October 7, the advance figure for initial claims for unemployment insurance was 243,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's level, which was revised down by 2,000. The advance insured unemployment rate dropped slightly to 1.3%. The advance number of those receiving unemployment insurance during the week ended September 30 was 1,889,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since December 29, 1973, when it was 1,805,000.

 

 

Eye on the Week Ahead

Trading volume should pick up following the Columbus Day week. Hurricane Harvey affected industrial production in August. September's report should reflect the impact, if any, of Hurricane Irma on industrial production in September. The latest report on existing home sales is available at the end of the week, followed by September's new home sales figures, which come out next week.

 


 

Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:
Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved.

Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Fortem Financial

Recent Posts

PRIVACY NOTICE REGARDING CLIENT PRIVACY

Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at www.fortemfin.com.

IMPORTANT CONSUMER DISCLOSURE

Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

All statements and opinions included on this website are subject to change as economic and market conditions dictate, and do not necessarily represent the views of Fortem Financial or any of their respective affiliates. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that any views, outlooks, projections or forward-looking statements will come to pass. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and the profitability of any particular investment strategy or product cannot be guaranteed.

Any rating referenced herein may not be representative of any one client's experience. Further, the Firm's receipt of any rating is not indicative of the Firm's future performance. The Charles E. Merrill Circle of Excellence award is granted by Merrill Lynch for outstanding client service and satisfaction. The award is granted based on annual criteria established by Merrill Lynch for its top decile advisors. The Barron's Top 1,200 Financial Advisors rating of the top financial advisors in the United States is based on data provided by participating firms. The following factors are included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component. The Palm Springs Life's "40 Under 40" Rising Young Professionals to Watch in the Coachella Valley is based upon nominations from the local business community and selected by the staff of Palm Springs Life.

For information pertaining to the registration status of Fortem Financial, please refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, operated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov., which contains the most recent versions of the Firm's Form ADV disclosure documents.

ACCESS TO THIS WEBSITE IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, REGARDING THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION POSTED ON THIS WEBSITE OR ANY THIRD PARTY WEBSITE REFERENCED HEREIN.