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Perspectives

How the market interprets the news….it’s not how you think it would be…

by Fortem Financial November 11, 2019

In the stock market, expectations matter. At any given moment, the stock market will reflect a certain set of expectations. And so, what moves markets are changes in those expectations. In other words, news doesn’t have to be good or bad on an absolute basis to move markets. It just has to be relatively better or worse than what was expected. Based on this logic, you can have bad news crossing the wires. But as long as investors and traders were expecting worse, you should in turn expect prices to go higher. And that’s what appears to be happening in the market now.

Better-than-feared 3Q earnings results have helped drive the S&P 500 to an all-time high of 3093, just 0.2% below most analysts year-end 2019 target of 3100. “With more than 76% of companies having reported, 52% have beaten consensus estimates by more than 1 standard deviation of analyst estimates, well above the long-term average of 47%.”

There’s no shortage of negative forces out there that are preventing companies from delivering better results. You have an unresolved trade war between the world’s two largest economies that has businesses delaying investment. You have labor costs rising as productivity deteriorates. And you’ve got a U.S. president going through an impeachment process that, among other things, has the potential impact policy matters in the pipeline that could directly impact an array of decisions made by consumers and businesses.

But as we’re learning, it appears that reality isn’t as bad as what’s been feared. The Media has a fairly dark view of where we are at economically and their headlines are meant to grab your attention and make you panic. However, The combination of extremely low expectations and better than expected results has been reflected in stock performance to the upside. This should continue throughout the rest of the year.

The winning streak for the equity indices continued last week as optimism regarding a Phase One agreement between the U.S. and China rose and corporate earnings continued to outperform modest quarterly expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.22% to lead the major indices followed by the Nasdaq (1.06%), the S&P 500® Index (0.85%) and the Russell 2000® Index (0.60%). Once again, cyclical stocks performed well as investors continued to rotate away from defensive stocks on the improved optimism associated with an initial trade agreement.

President Trump and Chinese officials continue to indicate that Phase One negotiations are progressing well for an agreement signing; President Trump restated that any signing ceremony would be in “farm country,” perhaps Iowa, in December. President Trump stated on Friday that while good progress has been made on a trade pact, he has not yet agreed to any tariff relief for Chinese exports. Comments on Thursday and Friday from various White House spokespeople, and Chinese officials, appeared to conflict over possible tariff agreements, concessions and possible enforcement mechanisms. The market’s muted reaction suggested that the President’s comments may have been intended as a negotiating ploy. Stay tuned.

Currently, investors hold approximately $3.4 trillion in cash; these funds provide the potential for further equity gains if, and when, the funds move into the equity markets. The lure of equities may be hard to overlook when investors become comfortable with trade policies and accommodative monetary policies; the combination of economic growth and low inflation provides additional incentives to seek higher returns. The earnings season is largely over; once again, trade headlines will determine market momentum. The CBOE Volatility Index is near it lows for the year; the decline in market volatility suggests that investors may gain more confidence as we head into the final weeks of the year.

Source: Pacific Global Investment Management Company, Yahoo Finance

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial

www.fortemfin.com

 

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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