U.S. equities were higher for the third week in a row (S&P 500 +3.5%). Headlines were sparse, with lower volatility around banks. Flows to money market accounts eased from the prior two weeks. Best sectors were energy (+6.2%) and consumer discretionary (+5.6%); worst sectors were communication services (+1.5%) and healthcare (+1.8%). Where Do Earnings Expectations Stand As We Head Into 1Q Earnings Season? With the first quarter earnings season set to begin in a couple of weeks, 2023 EP… View More
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%. The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important issue in monetary policy. That most important issue is the money supply, which surged by 40% in the first two years of COVID, the fastest since the 1940s, and has since dropped by the most since the Great Depression. You would thi… View More
Has the Bank Crisis Really Been Solved? After conversing with our Chief Economist Don Rissmiller yesterday about the status of the banking system, the question came up about whether the risk of deposit flight still remains. Commercial bank deposits, which yield next to nothing, have fallen by roughly -$571 bn while money market mutual funds, which yield closer to 4%, have taken in +$456 bn since the hiking cycle started. With the ability to move money by the click of a button, the search for de… View More
Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com … View More
Equities had their worst week since September (S&P 500 -4.6%). All sectors were down with banks the biggest decliners due to the SIVB financial failure. Treasuries rallied across the curve, with two-year yields recording their largest two-day move since 9/11. Best sector performers for the week were consumer staples (-1.9%), utilities (-2.9%), and technology (-3.1%). Worst performers were financials (-8.5%), materials (-7.6%), and REITS (-7.0%). Chart reflects price changes, not tot… View More