Is a U.S. recession or economic recovery in store for 2023? Risk: With inflation peaking at 9.1% in June, a recession is now the No. 1 economic concern going into 2023. When businesses make less money due to lower consumer spending (triggered by dwindling reserves, price pressures and an aggressive Fed), companies lay off workers and more people are hesitant to spend. Weak expectations or prior over-investing also factor into the equation, with many firms feeling that large swaths of the … View More
What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%, and we should expect a grand total of three 25 basis point (bp) rate hikes by the end of the year. Instead, it looks like real GDP will be up about 0.5%, PCE prices will be up 5.6%, and we had the equivalent of seventeen 25 bp Fed rate hikes, finishing the year at 4.375%. So, if you feel a little dizzy about all… View More
Be Aware This Holiday Season. Many of us spend the holidays relaxing and sharing in goodwill with friends and family. But some bad actors use the holidays to take advantage of people’s generous spirits. Scammers frequently target the older and other more vulnerable members of our communities. They pretend they are from Social Security or another government agency to steal your money or personal information. Caller ID, texts, or documents sent by email may look official, but they are not. F… View More
We have been following one of our favorite portfolio managers for more than 20 years. Bob Doll was the chief investment officer and lead portfolio manager for Merrill Lynch asset management when we started in the business back in 1998. Every year Bob produces his 10 predictions for the next year, and we use it as a guide as to what we can expect in the upcoming year. Bob has track record of better than 70% and in our business that is an unbelievable batting average. This week we bring to you Bo… View More
Dear Santa, We were largely good investors this year, remembering always and everywhere one of the cardinal rules of investing – “Don’t fight the Fed” either when it is easing or most especially when it’s tightening. We stuck with Energy and basic materials stocks. Ironically, we made more money on our longs than we did our shorts in a bear market. This was largely due to the lack of discipline and violating another investment bromide – never let a profit turn into a loss. After all… View More