Q2 Earnings better than expected

Stocks rallied again last week (S&P 500 +4.3%) for the third week in the past four helped by continued better than feared earnings (especially big technology companies), declines in bond yields, and valuation improvement. Best sectors were energy (+10.4%) and utilities (+6.5%); worst sectors were consumer staples (+1.6%) and healthcare (+2.0%). 2Q Aggregate Earnings & Sales Growth Improving Last week, more than 150 companies reported earnings, and overall results continued to show signs… View More

We are technically in a recession...

What do you do when you are technically in a recession and inflation is running out of control??? Raise taxes and increase spending on climate change of course! The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came out at -.90% for Q2 today to confirm our country is technically in recession. The White House is trying to change the definition of recession like it does everything else these days, but the classic definition of a Recession is two quarters of negative GDP. Instead, we are being told we are in a tr… View More

PIVOTAL WEEK FOR MARKETS ON TAP

Naturally, during times of market stress, every week seems pivotal. Still, the next five days will be chock-a-block with earnings, economic releases, and economic events that are likely to set the tone for the market and a fair amount of political commentary for the rest of the summer. More than 170 S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week (including 12 Dow components), while 2nd quarter GDP and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation - the Core PCE- and the ECI will also be annou… View More

Yield Curve firmly inverted….Now what??

The Treasury yield curve flattened significantly over the course of the week as short-term yields rose and long-term yields dropped while inflation continued to run hotter than expected. The flattening of the yield curve started early in the week as China re-imposed Covid restrictions leading to concerns of additional slowdowns to the world economy. Data released on Wednesday showed the consumer price index increased at a 9.1% year-over-year rate for June, which is the highest annual increase in… View More

ANOTHER BIG UPSIDE SURGE IN U.S. INFLATION

CPI again surged +0.7% m/m (!) and 5.9% y/y. Shelter rose +0.6% m/m. Both core and headline CPI m/m surprised to the upside again this month, indicating inflation has broadened. Bottom line: U.S. inflation is still too high, and monetary policy needs to continue to tighten aggressively in our opinion. Having chosen a +75bp hike last meeting, that should become the default for the July Fed hike at the end of the month. HOW WILL U.S. CONSUMERS DEAL WITH INFLATION? Consider: 1) SMOOTHING THE … View More

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Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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