Will the economy roll into a formal recession, or is a recovery underway? It's a close call. We've believed all year that the economy has been undergoing a series of "rolling recessions" affecting various industries and sectors. The question is whether it eventually would roll into a formal recession. To date, it's still not clear. Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to cool economic growth and control inflation, job growth has remained relatively strong—although job expansion historica… View More
Stocks fell again last week (S&P 500 -0.3%) with big tech hit hardest. Inflation remains the primary concern despite a good CPI report on Wednesday – PPI report on Friday was less good. Best sectors were energy (+3.5%) and healthcare (+2.5%); worst sector was technology (-2.9%). Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific inve… View More
2Q Earnings Season 84% Complete With the majority of earnings season complete, the overall picture is one of better-than-expected earnings and sales. Earnings growth for the quarter is expected to decline -4.2% which is a smaller decline than what was originally expected (-5.7%). Sales are now expected to eke out a small gain at 0.2% versus a decline of -0.6%. The energy sector is where the notable weakness is occurring but with oil prices on the rise again and expectations just about as bad … View More
Anyone hoping for excitement from today’s Fed statement was severely disappointed. As expected, the federal funds rate was lifted 25 basis points (bps) from a range of 5.25 to 5.50%. With the exception of the rate hike and slight wording changes – the “modest” pace of economic growth strengthened slightly to “moderate” – today’s statement was a virtual carbon copy of the mid-June release. It's worth noting that, while the Fed did not release new economic forecasts today, the eco… View More
No one should be popping champagne when they see Thursday’s GDP report. The good news is that it won’t be negative. The bad news is that even if it hits our estimate of 2.1% this is a far cry from the robust growth of the economic expansions in the 1980s and 1990s. The US is in desperate need of policies that raise the long-term growth of the US economy, policies that encourage more capital formation, better education, and making it easier to raise the next generation. In the meantime, we … View More