1Q Earnings Marginally Ahead Of Initial Estimates After the second week of earnings reports, growth rates continue to improve marginally compared to initial estimates and now are expected to decline -4.7%, a slight improvement from last week’s -4.8%. Furthermore, sales are now expected to grow 1.9% which means margin contraction remains the story as higher costs weigh on profits. Perhaps most notable is the deceleration in financial sector earnings growth after the initial large banks reporte… View More
In an effort to be dispassionate about our market forecast, we have categorized 16 basic building blocks of market strength as either assets or liabilities on a regular basis since 2002. The weighted and unweighted measures of Strategas’ “Shareholder’s Equity” dropped to an all-time low for the series. The proximate cause for the decline was our recategorization of Profit Growth/Margins as a Liability rather than an asset. The last time this exercise was conducted was before 4Q ’22 ea… View More
Some cracks are appearing in the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims with revisions were 228,000 last week. The ISM mfg & svc indices both fell notably in March. The Fed’s H.8 release showed bank loans declining at the end of March. The Dallas Fed reported loan demand was down with contacts noting “waning consumer confidence from recent financial instability as a concern.” The American Banker Association (ABA) indicated tighter credit conditions. We continue to believe the Fed’s Se… View More
U.S. equities were higher for the third week in a row (S&P 500 +3.5%). Headlines were sparse, with lower volatility around banks. Flows to money market accounts eased from the prior two weeks. Best sectors were energy (+6.2%) and consumer discretionary (+5.6%); worst sectors were communication services (+1.5%) and healthcare (+1.8%). Where Do Earnings Expectations Stand As We Head Into 1Q Earnings Season? With the first quarter earnings season set to begin in a couple of weeks, 2023 EP… View More
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%. The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important issue in monetary policy. That most important issue is the money supply, which surged by 40% in the first two years of COVID, the fastest since the 1940s, and has since dropped by the most since the Great Depression. You would thi… View More