A change in market leadership?

We came across an interesting article from one of our research providers this week and thought we would share it with you. This piece makes an interesting argument for why commodities and materials may be among the better performing investments for the next few years. Although so much of the media’s coverage these days seems to focus on social unrest or geopolitical conflict, there are still nuggets of information that may help identify investment opportunities.

Since the start of quantitative easing in response to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009, accommodative monetary policy has been used as a kind of Swiss Army Knife for public policy – relied upon to fix a variety of issues, from social justice to rising sea levels, for which it is at best ill-equipped, and at worst, useless. Add in unrestrained government deficit spending to deal with a global pandemic and regulatory policies in the United States and Europe that make it more difficult to access and transport the sources of energy upon which the global economy is so currently dependent, and it should be of little surprise that the CPI (Inflation) has been running at levels of greater than 5% for five months. Like it or not, the word transitory started out as a forecast, then became a hope, and now looks to be a punchline.

A 25% increase in the S&P 500 and a 10-year Treasury yield of 1.5% can hide a multitude of sins and allow those in charge to double down on policies that risk structurally high levels of inflation. Some bottlenecks and supply chain issues are undoubtedly sources of higher prices and will, with the passage of time, work themselves out. Nevertheless, once started, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are very hard to stop without economic pain. Like the Hotel California, you can check out any time you want, but you can never really leave. This is especially true if one considers the fact that China is unlikely to be as large a source of disinflation in the future as it was in the past, that there appears to be a structural change in the number of adults who can or want to participate in the workforce, and environmental goals that will increase the cost of doing business and also likely drive up the price of a variety of commodities.

The seemingly unlimited “creation” of money, unrestrained “free trade” with large economies that fix their own currencies, and negative interest rates have all had an impact on inflation. This combined with the concerted focus on climate change regardless of its immediate financial cost give us reason the believe additional inflationary pressure seems to be the most likely outcome.

Further, when we look at the list of issues important to registered voters in 2020 (See Gallup Poll below), it seems that the government will continue to increase its spending. The government’s solution to each of the top six concerns among American voters is to “spend more.” Further, there is a strong push in Biden’s administration to significantly increase spending to address climate change (item #15 on the list below).

What is important for those of us who ply our trade in the financial markets is to determine how we believe it is best to invest in this environment. What we have observed is that politicians are committed to policies that appear to be creating a current shortage of fossil fuels and greater-than-usual demand for industrial commodities like copper, lithium, cobalt, and manganese.

Year-to-date, this has translated into exceptional performance for both commodities and stocks. The S&P Energy sector has greatly outperformed the broader Index, up + 58.3% this year, while the S&P Materials sector, up +25.0%, has provided returns in line with the market in a good year.

There is a certain irony in this. President Trump loved the energy sector and stated publicly at the start of his Administration that he wanted the U.S. to be a net exporter of fossil fuels. Sadly, for investors in the sector, the Administration fed into the worst instincts of those who run energy companies from a capital allocation perspective. Returns reflected this lack of discipline. President Biden, on the other hand, immediately ordered a pause on all oil and gas leasing on federal lands and killed the Keystone pipeline. Energy stocks have never looked back.

Also ironic is the near pathological obsession with electric vehicles. As the chart below shows, the EV industry is extraordinarily dependent upon a variety of commodities whose extractive processes could hardly be described as “green.” The growing power of the ESG movement to influence capital allocation decisions at “dirty” companies has had the perverse impact of making them far better investments.

To the extent to which the world leaders remain committed to the rapid adoption of renewable energy sources, investors are likely to be presented with opportunities in relatively small and cheap sectors within the S&P 500 (Energy 3% and Basic Materials 2%) over the next several years. One can’t help but wonder whether the rapid adoption of renewable energy sources would be possible with low oil prices; we are inclined to think not. Unfortunately, oil at $50 a barrel is unlikely to cut it, so we believe its price will remain elevated well into 2022 and 2023.

Source: Strategas


Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by FactSet.

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 


 

Latest News

 

'Check Your Inbox:' $2 Billion In Student Loan Forgivenes...

The Biden administration is in the process of cancelling $2 billion in student loans for 30,000 borrowers. "Check your inboxes!" said Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona in a tweet last...

Forbes

Read Story

 

Roads, transit, internet: What's in the infrastructure plan

The $1 trillion public-works plan that President Joe Biden signed into law Monday has money for roads, bridges, ports, rail transit, safe water, the power grid, broadband internet and more

ABC News

Read Story

 

October retail sales are expected to be strong, showing e...

Economists predict October retail sales rose 1.5%, benefiting from higher fuel costs and early holiday shopping.

CNBC

Read Story

 


Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

Disclosures:
Awards and recognitions by unaffiliated rating services, companies, and/or publications should not be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if Fortem is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services; nor should they be construed as a current or past endorsement of Fortem or its representatives by any of its clients. Rankings published by magazines and others are generally based on information prepared and/or submitted by the recognized advisor. Awards may not be indicative of one client’s experience or of the Firm’s future performance. Neither Fortem nor the recognized advisor has paid a fee for inclusion on a list, nor purchased any additional material from the award provider. The criteria for each award is listed below:

Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
Fortem Financial 2016. All rights reserved.

Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author, and do not represent those of Fortem Financial, LLC or any of its affiliates. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful. Forward looking statements are based on current expectations and assumptions, the economy, and future conditions. As such, forward-looking statements are subject to inherent uncertainty, risks, and changes in circumstance that are difficult to predict. Actual results may differ materially from the anticipated outcomes. Carefully consider investment objectives, risk factors and charges and expenses before investing. Fortem Financial is a registered investment adviser with the SEC. Advisory services are offered through Fortem Financial.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Fortem Financial

Recent Posts

PRIVACY NOTICE REGARDING CLIENT PRIVACY

Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at www.fortemfin.com.

IMPORTANT CONSUMER DISCLOSURE

Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

All statements and opinions included on this website are subject to change as economic and market conditions dictate, and do not necessarily represent the views of Fortem Financial or any of their respective affiliates. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that any views, outlooks, projections or forward-looking statements will come to pass. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and the profitability of any particular investment strategy or product cannot be guaranteed.

Any rating referenced herein may not be representative of any one client's experience. Further, the Firm's receipt of any rating is not indicative of the Firm's future performance. The Charles E. Merrill Circle of Excellence award is granted by Merrill Lynch for outstanding client service and satisfaction. The award is granted based on annual criteria established by Merrill Lynch for its top decile advisors. The Barron's Top 1,200 Financial Advisors rating of the top financial advisors in the United States is based on data provided by participating firms. The following factors are included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component. The Five Star Professional award is granted by Five Star Professional and recognizes service professionals who provide quality services to their clients based on data provided by participating firms. The award is granted based on the following ten objective eligibility and evaluation criteria: credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; favorable regulatory and complaint history review; fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; accepting new clients; one-year client retention rate; five-year client retention rate; non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; number of client households served; and educational and professional designations. Feedback from consumer surveys will augment a regulatory history review. Firms have the option to provide input on award candidates from their firm, regardless of the nomination source. The Palm Springs Life's "40 Under 40" Rising Young Professionals to Watch in the Coachella Valley is based upon nominations from the local business community and selected by the staff of Palm Springs Life.

For information pertaining to the registration status of Fortem Financial, please refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, operated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov., which contains the most recent versions of the Firm's Form ADV disclosure documents.

ACCESS TO THIS WEBSITE IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, REGARDING THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, TIMELINESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION POSTED ON THIS WEBSITE OR ANY THIRD PARTY WEBSITE REFERENCED HEREIN.