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Week three of earnings season and so far better than 85% of companies are exceeding expectations on revenues and profits. Things going in the right direction barring any future shutdowns from the Coronavirus.

by Fortem Financial November 2, 2020

The S&P 500 posted its worst weekly return since March due to a risk-off tone as we enter election week. Mega cap technology underwhelmed high expectations, and COVID-19 cases hit new highs across the U.S. and Europe. The five largest technology firms, which account for over 20% of the S&P 500’s weight, reported mostly disappointing results. While big technology came in ahead of consensus estimates, marginal beats and disappointing future guidance weighed across the sector. Apple Inc. … View More

Another Reason to be Optimistic Following Yesterday's GDP Report

by Fortem Financial October 30, 2020

With all the uncertainty going on in the world, we have found more stability in looking at the reported economic data. One of the data points that we believe is crucial is personal income. We have shared many times over the years that the US economy is a consumer led economy; roughly 70% is driven by consumption. The most recent report of personal income shows that it increased 0.9% in September (+1.6% including revisions to prior months), which beat consensus expectations (again). Consensus exp… View More

The Super V recovery is real, but full recovery depends on opening our cities

by Fortem Financial October 29, 2020

To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a HUGE and VIRTUALLY UNPRECEDENTED surge of at least 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this week that could affect our forecast, but only slightly. Obviously, the US will not keep growing at this rate, but the question remains about how much might it slow? Believe it or not, because we have September data – the "jumping off point" for the four… View More

Market doesn’t seem to be worried about the upcoming election only 10 days away

by Fortem Financial October 26, 2020

The equally-weighted Value Line Index (roughly 1700 issues) is right on the cusp of breaking out to multi-year highs, following consecutive declines of roughly -25% and -45% over the last 2+ years. This is about as good of an indication we have that participation is broadening under the surface. The recent outperformance from small-caps, trading to 5-month relative highs last week, is also suggestive of this positive shift. Continued improvement from credit – BB vs. BBB corporate spreads hit r… View More

GDP Soars in Third Quarter

by Fortem Financial October 19, 2020

There is nothing normal about the 2020 recession. Massive nationwide shutdowns of "non-essential" businesses caused real GDP to drop at a 31.4% annual rate in the second quarter, the biggest drop since the 1930s. However, as we expected, a V-shaped recovery is being traced out. On October 29th, in ten days, we expect a report that says third-quarter real GDP rebounded at a 33.4% annual rate. We may make some minor adjustments to this forecast when new reports on business investment, inventorie… View More

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Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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