While local lockdowns remain concerns (for example TX & FL), a renewed national/global restriction due to the virus is not the base case. So, from depressed levels, we are seeing some very large economic growth rates. Global PMI measures continued to bounce in June. U.S. new home sales rose +16.6% m/m in May. Durables orders increased +15.8% m/m. The NY Fed’s tracking index of weekly data continues to turn up. U.S. consumer spending cuts look to have occurred at the upper-end of the inco… View More
Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions. For example, US retail sales plunged a combined 21.8% in March and April, before rising 17.7% in May. Manufacturing production fell 20.0% in March and April, before gaining 3.8% in May. Nonfarm payrolls shrank 22.1 million in March and April, followed by a gain of 2.5 million in May. The savings rate su… View More
Last week, equities fell for the first time in four weeks. Early last week, cyclicals continued to run from the week before. On Thursday however, risks of a second wave of COVID-19 cases sent the S&P 500 down over 6.8% as investors shed risky cyclical names for relative safety in Information Technology and Communication Services. Friday cyclicals made a slight comeback, but still ended the week negative as Energy, Financials and Industrials were the worst three sectors in the S&P 500. V… View More
We wanted to share some thoughts on the myriad of news reports floating around and on yesterday's stock market movement. Thursday's stock market movement has many asking, “What made the market drop so much?,” and perhaps more importantly, “Will this look like March all over again?” For the first question, the short answer is that investors appear to have focused on negative (and incomplete) news. For the second question, we believe the answer is NO, and we will provide a basis for that … View More
We are indeed living in strange times. After a weekend of peaceful protests and violent riots, stocks opened higher today on optimism for a quicker than expected economic recovery. The S&P 500 closed out last week higher by almost 5%, erasing the losses incurred since the beginning of March. The market recovery was also observed in small and mid-cap stocks where the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 were both up over 8% last week. Investors eagerly awaited last Friday's job report because … View More