Unemployment has surged. There were 152.5 million people on U.S. non-farm payrolls at the peak. The surge in jobless filings during the past 2 months have left U.S. continuing claims at roughly 18 million as of April 18th, up from under 2 million a year ago. Private payroll data (ADP) indicate that roughly half of U.S. workers are employed in small & medium size business – this is where we see continued solvency issues in addition to liquidity issues. Workers can be called back from furlou… View More
US and global leaders have faced difficult decisions over the last month or so. As Covid-19 gained momentum, the US and much of the rest of the world began “sheltering in place,” effectively shutting down significant portions the global economy. There was sound logic in sheltering at home; it would help flatten the contagion curve of the Coronavirus, and with this being a NEW virus, it was the most likely way to flatten the curve within weeks. We needed to protect our healthcare systems and… View More
Markets were up again last week as we are making our way out the other side of the Pandemic. Every day that goes by is another day we are closer to getting back to our normal lives. You may have noticed a pickup in protests from Americans wanting to go back to work. As we watched the curve flatten and numbers come down for new cases and and new breakouts of the Coronavirus, the federal government rolled out its plan to reopen the economy in phases. The plan looks like it is comprehensive and wil… View More
The shelter-in-place orders in the U.S. are showing signs that the Coronavirus curve is flattening, and our country is now looking forward to when and how to reopen the U.S. economy. Here is a link to review the White House's plan: https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/ Sincerely, Fortem Financialwww.fortemfin.com(760) 206-8500 … View More
The Wuhan Coronavirus shock to the economy looks to be one of the worst on record. It remains possible that nearly all economic data series will show record weakness now. The Wuhan Coronavirus (with no vaccine/effective drugs) has left one option: shutting down economic activity to slow the spread & buy time for doctors. This strategy resulted in 6.6 million U.S. initial jobless claims last week, on top of a revised 6.9 million the week before, and 3.3 million claims the week before that. Th… View More