While it’s hard to draw many conclusions from one of the lightest volume days of the year, we did find it notable that Friday’s weakness was not accompanied with any internal pressure. In fact, advancing stocks actually outnumbered declining stocks +1.3 to 1 on Friday, despite the S&P finishing lower on the day. Collectively about 83% of the S&P is trading above its respective 50-day moving average – consistent with a market that is likely short-term overbought, but more import… View More
The equity markets struggled to advance last week with investors focused on the G20 summit in Japan. Presidents Trump and Xi met on Saturday; the markets interpreted President Trump’s comments on Thursday to suggest a possible resumption of negotiations. During the meeting the two leaders were able to come up with a resolution to keep negotiations on track. The Russell 2000® Index led all indices with a 1.10% gain; the other major indices declined for the week: the S&P 500® Index d… View More
The equity markets rose last week with the announcement that Presidents Trump and Xi would meet at next week’s G20 summit in Japan. Trade officials from both countries will meet before the summit to discuss a potential framework to restart negotiations. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, as widely expected, left interest rates unchanged but confirmed its commitment to “act, as appropriate, to sustain the expansion.” The Fed also removed the term “patient” in characterizing its outlo… View More
The pricing in of political risk has clearly become much more complicated in the past month, as the U.S. Administration has switched from a focus on tax cuts & deregulation to tariffs (or tariff threats) & increased tech regulation/antitrust. This may not end anytime soon. The offset will have to be elsewhere, and the market looks willing to give other actors (like central banks) the benefit of the doubt, at least for now. We continue to stay tuned. Last week, the equity markets m… View More
The Bond Market, a number of market analysts and President Trump were all ahead of the Federal Reserve once again, in calling for possible rate cuts in 2019, even though there were no signs of recession yet. For several months last year there were calls that the Federal Reserve was tightening too quickly by raising rates and reducing their balance sheet at the same time (policy that had never been done before). The bond market signaled that the Fed was more than a little aggressive in tightening… View More