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Perspectives

Weekly Market Commentary - Week Ending August 28, 2026

by Fortem Financial August 24, 2026

Will Higher Interest Rates Threaten Equities?

 

Long-term Treasury yields continue to face upward pressure as economic growth remains solid, inflation stays sticky, and government finances deteriorate. While the Treasury’s efforts to support longer-dated bonds may provide some relief, they are unlikely to reverse the forces driving yields higher. Meanwhile, financial markets continue to benefit from rising corporate profits and supportive monetary and fiscal policies. Could higher rates and bond yields eventually threaten equities?

 

1 . The August Philly Fed survey report was good in that it showed strong manufacturing momentum without a renewed pick up in price pressures.

2 . July retail sales were weaker than estimates, reinforcing that the U.S. economy is not overheating.

3 . The U.S. Treasury announced at least a doubling in its purchase of Treasury bonds in an effort to arrest the upward move in bond yields.

4 . The upward pressure in interest rates will likely only reverse once economic activity weakens and/or inflation pressures recede.

5 . Why might inflation stay sticky? Lots of liquidity, M2 growth, bank loans, and federal outlays, with Fed funds below nominal GDP growth - all helps to drive inflation.

6 . According to most models, long-maturity Treasury yields are close to fundamental fair value. However, higher Treasury yields from here could threaten equity markets.

7 . Credit fundamentals remain firm, but the margin for error is narrowing.

8 . Real (inflation-adjusted) income has slowed in the U.S., so it makes sense that consumer spending is following. But corporate profits and capex still look solid.

9 . Productivity growth is slowly improving and AI may be helping at the margin, but broad labor market problems have not surfaced. However, early career hiring is struggling somewhat.

10 . 2027 earnings growth is now estimated at 13%, down from 17% at the beginning of July.

Source: Bob Doll, CFA, PM/CIO/CEO Crossmark Investments

 

Market and Index Changes for the Week Ending 8/21/2026

Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments. Data provided by Refinitiv.

 

Sincerely,

Fortem Financial
(760) 206-8500
team@fortemfin.com

 

 

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Brian Amidei, along with Partners Joseph Romano and Brett D'Orlando have also been named *2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 Five Star Wealth Managers!

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Five Star Professional Disclosure:
The Five Star Wealth Manager award is based on 10 eligibility and evaluation criteria: 1) Credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR) or a registered investment advisor; 2) Actively employed as a credentialed professional in the financial services industry for a minimum of five years; 3) Favorable regulatory and complaint history review; 4) Fulfilled their firm review based on internal firm standards; 5) Accepting new clients; 6) One-year client retention rate; 7) Five-year client retention rate; 8) Non-institutionalized discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered; 9) Number of client households served; and 10) Educational and professional designations. The inclusion of a wealth manager on the Five Star Wealth Manager list should not be construed as an endorsement of the wealth manager by Five Star Professional or the magazine. The award methodology does not evaluate the quality of services provided. Additional information about this award is available at: fivestarprofessional.com/2016FiveStarWealthManagerMethodology.pdf
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Data Sources: News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e. wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. Market Data: Based on reported data in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury Yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighed index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

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