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Perspectives

February 2022

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Volatility Picks up but Markets were higher last week as war breaks out in Ukraine

by Fortem Financial February 28, 2022

Volatility Picks Up but Markets were higher last week as war breaks out in Ukraine U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +0.8%) thanks to big rallies on Thursday and Friday after big losses earlier in the week resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The rally came as new sanctions on Russia were seen as less severe than expected. Oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel. Best performers included REITs (+2.7%) and utilities (+2.0%); worst performers were consumer discretiona… View More

RUSSIA invades Ukraine…Now What…

by Fortem Financial February 25, 2022

ANSWERS TO OUR FREQUENTLY ASKED CLIENT QUESTIONS ABOUT RUSSIA 1. With inflation running hot, the Fed likely to tighten, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leading to a spike in the price of oil, how worried are you about a recession in the U.S.? We think the chances of a recession are relatively low in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months. The labor market is tight, job openings are plentiful, monetary policy remains accommodative, and there remains a large reservoir of personal and corporat… View More

RUSSIA CONFLICT HASN’T CHANGED THE MACRO MESSAGE

by Fortem Financial February 22, 2022

It’s always tempting to prognosticate how a headline event – geopolitical conflict, Fed action, etc. – may change the complexion of the market, but it’s been our experience that exogenous inputs do more to reinforce trends already in place rather than change the game. We’re not sure anyone has a real edge on Russia / Ukraine, and if they did, it doesn’t mean they’ll get the market’s reaction function correct as well. Prior to the acceleration of this conflict over recent weeks, t… View More

The Push and Pull of the current Market and still earnings are good

by Fortem Financial February 14, 2022

After posting back-to-back weekly gains following the big January sell-off, equities were lower last week (S&P -1.8%). Value and small-cap beat growth and large-cap. Oil was higher for an eighth-straight week. The big story was the January CPI inflation surprise and hawkish Fed commentary. Best sectors were energy (+2.1%) and materials (+1.1%); worst sectors were communication services (-3.9%) and technology (-2.9%). 4Q Earnings Now 70% Reported The fundamental improvement for the aggreg… View More

A Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Inflation, and Supply Chain Issues Spook the Market

by Fortem Financial February 12, 2022

There were plenty of concerns to go around as we finished out the week including: The imminent risk of war between Russia and Ukraine continues to build. The NY Times on February 11th reported US officials have picked up intelligence suggesting Russia may invade Ukraine as early as Wednesday. Further chip shortages may result from a conflict with Russia. The White House warned the US Chip Industry on February 11th that Russia may retaliate against US sanctions by blocking access to key materia… View More

Inflation hitting where it hurts in food and energy

by Fortem Financial February 7, 2022

Inflation is starting to be noticed by everyone everywhere. We will not discuss the price of fuel which we expect will be north of $5.00 a gallon in California in the next few weeks. However, we do want to share a recent local “dining” experience. We were out to lunch the other day at a local Mexican restaurant that we have gone to for more than two decades, and we noticed the temporary copied paper menus on the table had replaced the regular menus. I always order the same thing at this plac… View More

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