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Stagflation update based on Q3 Data

by Fortem Financial November 2, 2021

We believe we are seeing the peak in the 2021 stagflation scare, with the 3Q data reports from the U.S. last week & the weak China manufacturing PMI in Oct. There’s still plenty to worry about, as growth has stalled & bottlenecks keep inflation elevated. Wage pressures are building. Energy prices remain elevated. Yet these stories are becoming well known. There are key positives for economic growth. European 3Q GDP data was solid q/q. The U.S. yield curve is not inverted & consume… View More

Global Growth, Inflation, GDP and Q3 Earnings

by Fortem Financial October 25, 2021

There’s plenty to worry about, as global growth has stalled but bottlenecks keep inflation elevated. Wage pressures are building on the back of recent inflation data (eg, U.S. strikes, German union negotiations). We continue to watch for “peak bottleneck”. The Atlanta Fed’s tracking estimate for U.S. real GDP in 3Q is down to 0.5% q/q A.R. The quarter appears to have been quite weak, both in the U.S. and abroad (eg, China GDP reported at 0.2% q/q in 3Q). U.S. industrial production plung… View More

Q3 Earnings and Stagflation

by Fortem Financial October 19, 2021

We may be approaching “peak bottleneck”. The Atlanta Fed’s tracking estimate for U.S. real GDP in 3Q is down to 1.2% q/q A.R. Separately, U of Mich consumer sentiment remained depressed at 71.4 in October. Yet, we are seeing early signs that the global production & transportation situation, while not close to being solved, may finally be turning. U.S. initial jobless claims falling to 293,000 last week suggest an inflection. This doesn’t make the inflation we’re seeing now (eg, Sep… View More

Stagflation and Q3 earnings on the menu for this week

by Fortem Financial October 11, 2021

Given bottlenecks and supply constraints, we are continuing to see a stagflation scare (weaker growth + sticky inflation) in the global economy. Concerns are likely to persist into 2022. But as firms change the way they do business to combat this issue, output-per-hour (productivity) gains are starting to occur. Productivity allows the opposite of stagflation: stronger growth and muted inflation since there are more goods & services produced. Put another way, straining the economy in ways it… View More

Outside of reconciliation, the only way the debt ceiling gets resolved is if one party caves, which is never easy to do

by Fortem Financial October 4, 2021

DEMOCRATIC DIVISIONS OVER THE SPENDING PACKAGE EXPLODED OVER THE WEEKEND Last Thursday Strategas (one of our research partners) outlined all of the troubles Democrats were having in moving their agenda forward and that the infrastructure vote was likely to be delayed. The delay of the infrastructure package did materialize but during that process, we saw a level of optimism emanating from Congressional leadership that a deal could take place on Friday. Senator Manchin put out his price tag Thur… View More

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