CPI again surged +0.7% m/m (!) and 5.9% y/y. Shelter rose +0.6% m/m. Both core and headline CPI m/m surprised to the upside again this month, indicating inflation has broadened. Bottom line: U.S. inflation is still too high, and monetary policy needs to continue to tighten aggressively in our opinion. Having chosen a +75bp hike last meeting, that should become the default for the July Fed hike at the end of the month. HOW WILL U.S. CONSUMERS DEAL WITH INFLATION? Consider: 1) SMOOTHING THE … View More
In January 2022 we rebalanced our portfolios to reduce exposure to companies that had extended multiples and were paying little or no dividends. These equities are considered long-duration equities because they will grow into their stock pricing multiples over an extended time period. These companies' stock performance have a history of being very volatile in times of economic slowing and high inflation. In January, we added a number of companies to our portfolio that better met the attributes … View More
Watching For 2023 Downward Guidance During 2Q Reporting Season The second quarter earnings season is set to begin this week and while earnings are expected to be up about 6%, the 2Q story is about energy holding up the aggregate data. We are more interested in guidance for the remainder of the year and into 2023. We are of the view that 2023 estimates are too high and will likely come in once analysts are given the cover from companies. For 2023, the consensus estimate is near $250, our estimate… View More
Talk of a Recession is increasing and the yield curve is inverted again. These are usually sure signs that a recession is on the horizon. As with many things these days, the definition of a Recession is ever changing. In the past, the technical definition of a Recession was two quarters or more of Negative Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, because of the economic disruptions from COVID-19, they have expanded the definition to make it more difficult to say whether we are going into a Recessi… View More
There is continued evidence of a cyclical slowdown. China has already taken a large hit due to local policy decisions. Europe is dealing with the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. The U.S. is feeling the impact of a Fed that has turned aggressive and is aiming for restrictive monetary policy. U.S. initial jobless claims were revised slightly higher & remained above their recent low at 231,000 last week. The U.S. manufacturing PMI new orders component moved into contraction territory at… View More