Strategas’ Common Man CPI popped in March amid the energy shock resulting from the U.S war with Iran. As a reminder, the Common Man CPI (CMCPI) consists only of the components people must buy – Food, Energy, Shelter, Insurance, and Children’s clothing. Essentially, it is a “core” measure of inflation in the way a consumer, rather than an economist, would think of it. While the move in our measure m/m was lower than the 0.9% m/m increase of the headline CPI, consumers remain pressured … View More
In 2024, Republicans swept the White House, the Senate, and the House, allowing them to make the Trump tax cuts permanent. But the clock is ticking on their congressional majorities. At this point, we think the odds are very high that the Democrats will win back the House in the midterm election in November. Compared to 2024, the Democrats only need to gain three seats to take back the House. Historically, the party not in control of the White House – this cycle, the Democrats – have gained… View More
Summary Stocks fell again (S&P 500 -2.10%) (and to the lowest level since September) for the fifth week in a row with NASDAQ down ten of the last eleven weeks. Best sectors were energy (+6.22%), materials (+4.18%), and utilities (+2.94%); worst sectors were communication services (-7.17%) and information technology (-3.44%). Key Takeaways President Trump extended his deadline for a deal with Iran for ten more days. This will likely prolong uncertainty and volatility in the f… View More
Structural forces from electrification to industrial growth are reshaping the U.S. power landscape. We have been commenting on this for the past year or so and have allocated our portfolios accordingly. We thought it may be a good idea to take a little deeper look into Energy considering what is going on in Iran and why this is important to you. After an unusually flat period over the past two decades, U.S. electricity demand is increasing again, marking a meaningful shift from prior consumpti… View More
In the aftermath of the first Internet stock-market bubble of the late 1990s, the economy went into a relatively shallow recession starting in 2001. That recession was precipitated by a tight monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve setting short-term interest rates consistently above the pace of nominal GDP growth (real GDP growth plus inflation). In that sense – as a result of tight money – the 2001 recession was like the recessions of 1970, 1973-74, 1980, 1981-82, and 1990-91. Since tha… View More