Q4 Earnings Reporting ~75% Complete & 4Q Growth Being Reported As Strong With roughly 75% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings, results are coming in strong. Earnings growth is once again tracking in the double digits for a fifth consecutive quarter, an outcome that’s somewhat unusual at this stage of the economic cycle. The impact of AI-driven capex is clearly showing up in the numbers. The strongest growth rates are concentrated in the Technology, Communications, and Indust… View More
Market Multiple Has Fallen Below Its 3 Year Average For the first time since Liberation Day, the S&P 500’s multiple has fallen below its three-year average, a level that over the past several years, has typically been associated with a resumption of multiple expansion. One of the more surprising developments so far has been the strength of corporate earnings alongside continued stock selloffs. Notably, the prospect of increased capex spending, which was viewed positively last year, is no … View More
It could have been anything… we’re of course referring to Silver’s spectacular -40% decline over the last 72 hours, and the broader selling in Precious Metals. We’ve read countless attempts to come up with the reason “why” over the past few days –it was the Warsh nomination, the Yen is to blame, an options squeeze, etc. etc. etc. – but the reality is when a parabolic move grips the tape and emotion takes over, it can literally be anything that triggers a sudden shift to the preva… View More
The Fed meets on Wednesday to discuss the direction of monetary policy. With the futures market pricing the odds of “no change in rates” at 97.2%, no one should expect a rate cut at this meeting…or, we think, anytime soon. Some, including the Trump Administration, might complain about steady short-term interest rates and say Fed Chief Jerome Powell is playing politics. The claim about playing politics may be accurate, but for now, Powell has the data on his side. The economy looks solid, … View More
Love him or hate him, President Trump will likely be remembered as a consequential president. His historical shadow may overwhelm all but a few. Setting aside the current tensions in the North Sea, the Trump Administration’s market report card is quite good – stocks up, bond yields down, and mortgage rates and retail gasoline prices lower. The most significant blemish is the decline in the US Dollar. The broader economic picture has also shown relatively steady results, with real growth han… View More