The Fed meets on Wednesday to discuss the direction of monetary policy. With the futures market pricing the odds of “no change in rates” at 97.2%, no one should expect a rate cut at this meeting…or, we think, anytime soon. Some, including the Trump Administration, might complain about steady short-term interest rates and say Fed Chief Jerome Powell is playing politics. The claim about playing politics may be accurate, but for now, Powell has the data on his side. The economy looks solid, … View More
Love him or hate him, President Trump will likely be remembered as a consequential president. His historical shadow may overwhelm all but a few. Setting aside the current tensions in the North Sea, the Trump Administration’s market report card is quite good – stocks up, bond yields down, and mortgage rates and retail gasoline prices lower. The most significant blemish is the decline in the US Dollar. The broader economic picture has also shown relatively steady results, with real growth han… View More
Each year, we like to bring you the top 10 predictions from our Friend Bob Doll, who is Chief Investment Officer and CEO of Crossmark Investments. We have been following Bob's predictions since he was the Chief Investment Officer at Merrill Lynch and BlackRock. He is right more than wrong, so this is a good guide for what the next year will look like for the economy and Markets. 10 Predictions For 2026 Theme: High-Risk Bull Market Source: Bob Doll CEO/CFO, Crossmark Investment… View More
In today’s note, we discuss our initial thoughts as 2026 begins, noting that double-digit return years are not uncommon, and we explore how the fundamental broadening of the S&P is being pushed out further in 2026. Returns Exceeding 15% For A Fourth Consecutive Year Not Unheard Of Since 1926, there have been four instances in which the S&P 500 posted returns greater than 15% for three consecutive years. In only one of those cases did the market experience a negative return in the… View More
U.S. equity markets began the holiday‑shortened trading week on a firm footing. Broad gains in major indexes and the start of the Santa Claus rally marked this week. Following modest volatility in trading earlier in December, sentiment improved significantly as investors bet on year-end flows. As shown, the CNN Fear-Greed Index has moved materially higher from its readings earlier in the month. The Santa Claus rally window officially began on Christmas Eve. That rally is traditionally defined… View More