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What does the yield curve inversion mean for the markets?

by Fortem Financial August 15, 2019

Overnight between August 13th and August 14th, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Interest Rate dropped below the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Interest Rate.  In the investment world, this is known as a “Yield Curve Inversion.” The inversion of the 2-year and 10-year treasury is significant because historically every recession has been preceded by an inversion of the 2-year and the 10-year treasury rate and because it is uncommon to experience this yield curve inversion without a recession occurring within… View More

Can China really afford to play the long game on trade?

by Fortem Financial August 12, 2019

The term “trade war” seems appropriate in describing the escalating dispute between the U.S. and China. A week ago Friday, President Trump’s announcement a September 1st tariff increase; on Monday, China, announced it would stop buying American agricultural products and allowed the yuan to devalue to levels not seen since 2008. Subsequent commentaries speculated on the economic impacts to each side as the markets sold off and then largely recovered. Then on Friday, President Trump indicate… View More

Earnings season draws to an end and all eyes are back on Trade

by Fortem Financial August 5, 2019

Trade concerns continue, despite stronger-than-expected earnings results, to cast a shadow over the equity and bond markets.  Last Thursday, President Trump, dissatisfied with trade negotiations, threatened to implement a 10% tariff on September 1st for the remaining $300 billion of Chinese exports not already subject to tariffs.  The markets immediately sold off on fears that an expansion of trade tariffs with China would further damage the U.S. economy.  Last week, Nasdaq declined 3.92%; S… View More

Fed does the minimum today

by Fortem Financial July 31, 2019

With two dissents, the FOMC cut the fed funds rate -25bp today.  This does not have to be the start of a “long” series of rate cuts according to Fed Chair Powell, but some additional action is still possible.  Lower neutral interest rate assessments, global risk, and still-too-low U.S. inflation were mentioned as key factors for cutting rates today, despite the recent stronger-than-expected GDP and jobs reports. The statement included: “[i]n light of the implications of global developme… View More

Solid GDP Report Last Week

by Fortem Financial July 29, 2019

A cottage industry has sprung up in the past decade with the sole focus of discrediting any good news on the economy. When President Obama was in office, the attacks mostly came from the right. With Presi dent Trump in Office, the attacks mostly come from the left. Since March 2009, regardless of who was in office, we have stridently argued that this recovery has legs.  The latest debate is over real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, which grew at a better than expected 2.1% annual rate in Q2. Some s… View More

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