Just reaching an agreement was the first step. Now the US Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) process will kick in. By the end of 2018, we expect the International Trade Commission to issue a report for Congress detailing the economic impact of the renegotiated NAFTA agreement. The purpose of this report is to be informative for members of Congress before they vote. We have no idea how the report may score the benefits of enhanced intellectual property protection and the new financial services rules… View More
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points yesterday. And at this point, the outlook for the remainder 2018 looks largely determined, with both 75% of Fed officials and the markets pricing in one more rate hike in December to make it four for the year. What remains to be seen – and the focus for many with yesterday's release – is how policy will develop in 2019 and beyond. The only substantive change in yesterday's statement was the removal of a sentence noting the sta… View More
Trade tensions continued to dominate the headlines; on Monday, the U.S. imposed an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods. The tariffs will rise to 25% on January 1st in the absence of a trade agreement. Despite the announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.25% while the S&P 500® Index gained 0.85% while the Nasdaq fell 0.29%, the Russell 2000® Index fell 0.55%. The Dow and S&P 500® both posted record highs on Thursday as the longest bull market on r… View More
Significant headline news events were in short supply last week yet the major indices moved higher which has been the path of least resistance. For the week, large caps outpaced small cap stocks; the market leading Nasdaq rose 1.36%, followed by the S&P 500® Index (1.16%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (0.92%) and the Russell 2000® Index (0.50%). Economic data, including the Consumer Confidence Index, continue to support the markets. The Index’s 100.8 reading for August is the seco… View More
September began with across-the-board declines in response to uncertainties related to trade tariffs with China and the NAFTA negotiations with Canada. Last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average led the markets with a fractional 0.19% loss; the S&P 500® Index declined 1.03%, the Nasdaq fell 2.55% and the Russell 2000® Index lost 1.58%. On Wednesday, trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada resumed but the parties had not reached an agreement as the week ended; the pressure builds… View More