August 2019

Post 1 to 5 of 5

New Direction for the Business Round Table

The U.S./China trade war continued to dominate headlines last week as China announced tariffs of 5% to 10% on $75 billion of goods, including autos and oil, effective September 1st and December 1st.  The action was in response to President Trump’s previously announced tariffs scheduled for September 1; they may also reflect China’s displeasure over the decision to sell $8 billion of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan.  Markets closed lower for the fourth consecutive week: the Russell 2000® Inde… View More

Volatile week on Wall Street fueled by Rumors of Recession because of Inverted yield curve

The equity and bond markets ended a volatile week last week in a somewhat optimistic mood.  Once again, trade and geopolitical events took center stage as the markets posted another week of losses.  On Wednesday, recessionary fears drove an 800 point (3%) decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, its biggest selloff of the year.  The equity markets fell in reaction to a yield curve inversion (that is, when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note  fell below the 2-year U.S. Treasury N… View More

What does the yield curve inversion mean for the markets?

Overnight between August 13th and August 14th, the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Interest Rate dropped below the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Interest Rate.  In the investment world, this is known as a “Yield Curve Inversion.” The inversion of the 2-year and 10-year treasury is significant because historically every recession has been preceded by an inversion of the 2-year and the 10-year treasury rate and because it is uncommon to experience this yield curve inversion without a recession occurring within… View More

Can China really afford to play the long game on trade?

The term “trade war” seems appropriate in describing the escalating dispute between the U.S. and China. A week ago Friday, President Trump’s announcement a September 1st tariff increase; on Monday, China, announced it would stop buying American agricultural products and allowed the yuan to devalue to levels not seen since 2008. Subsequent commentaries speculated on the economic impacts to each side as the markets sold off and then largely recovered. Then on Friday, President Trump indicate… View More

Earnings season draws to an end and all eyes are back on Trade

Trade concerns continue, despite stronger-than-expected earnings results, to cast a shadow over the equity and bond markets.  Last Thursday, President Trump, dissatisfied with trade negotiations, threatened to implement a 10% tariff on September 1st for the remaining $300 billion of Chinese exports not already subject to tariffs.  The markets immediately sold off on fears that an expansion of trade tariffs with China would further damage the U.S. economy.  Last week, Nasdaq declined 3.92%; S… View More

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