Perspectives

Market Multiple Has Fallen Below Its 3 Year Average For the first time since Liberation Day, the S&P 500’s multiple has fallen below its three-year average, a level that over the past several years, has typically been associated with a resumption of multiple expansion. One of the more surprising developments so far has been the strength of corporate earnings alongside continued stock selloffs. Notably, the prospect of increased capex spending, which was viewed positively last year, is no … View More

It could have been anything… we’re of course referring to Silver’s spectacular -40% decline over the last 72 hours, and the broader selling in Precious Metals. We’ve read countless attempts to come up with the reason “why” over the past few days –it was the Warsh nomination, the Yen is to blame, an options squeeze, etc. etc. etc. – but the reality is when a parabolic move grips the tape and emotion takes over, it can literally be anything that triggers a sudden shift to the preva… View More

The Fed meets on Wednesday to discuss the direction of monetary policy. With the futures market pricing the odds of “no change in rates” at 97.2%, no one should expect a rate cut at this meeting…or, we think, anytime soon. Some, including the Trump Administration, might complain about steady short-term interest rates and say Fed Chief Jerome Powell is playing politics. The claim about playing politics may be accurate, but for now, Powell has the data on his side. The economy looks solid, … View More

Love him or hate him, President Trump will likely be remembered as a consequential president. His historical shadow may overwhelm all but a few. Setting aside the current tensions in the North Sea, the Trump Administration’s market report card is quite good – stocks up, bond yields down, and mortgage rates and retail gasoline prices lower. The most significant blemish is the decline in the US Dollar. The broader economic picture has also shown relatively steady results, with real growth han… View More

Each year, we like to bring you the top 10 predictions from our Friend Bob Doll, who is Chief Investment Officer and CEO of Crossmark Investments. We have been following Bob's predictions since he was the Chief Investment Officer at Merrill Lynch and BlackRock. He is right more than wrong, so this is a good guide for what the next year will look like for the economy and Markets.   10 Predictions For 2026   Theme: High-Risk Bull Market Source: Bob Doll CEO/CFO, Crossmark Investment… View More

In today’s note, we discuss our initial thoughts as 2026 begins, noting that double-digit return years are not uncommon, and we explore how the fundamental broadening of the S&P is being pushed out further in 2026.   Returns Exceeding 15% For A Fourth Consecutive Year Not Unheard Of Since 1926, there have been four instances in which the S&P 500 posted returns greater than 15% for three consecutive years. In only one of those cases did the market experience a negative return in the… View More

U.S. equity markets began the holiday‑shortened trading week on a firm footing. Broad gains in major indexes and the start of the Santa Claus rally marked this week. Following modest volatility in trading earlier in December, sentiment improved significantly as investors bet on year-end flows. As shown, the CNN Fear-Greed Index has moved materially higher from its readings earlier in the month. The Santa Claus rally window officially began on Christmas Eve. That rally is traditionally defined… View More

As 2025 draws to a close, markets are poised for a potential Santa Claus rally amid a year of solid gains. The S&P 500 is up over 15% year-to-date, on track for its third consecutive double-digit advance, driven by resilient economic growth, AI momentum, and Fed rate cuts. Despite a shaky December—with indices slightly lower so far this month due to profit-taking in tech and AI jitters—historical seasonality favors upside into year-end and early 2026. Small-caps and value sectors have s… View More

Each year, we bring you our friend, the CEO and CFO of Crossmark Investments, and his annual predictions that will affect the market. The following is a recap of his predictions:   Summary The U.S stock market experienced a better-than-expected third year in a row of double-digit percentage gains. Earnings growth was quite good as AI-related businesses exceeded expectations. A 20% tariff-related decline led to a 40% recovery in the S&P 500. By year-end, investors are hopeful for yet anot… View More

Earnings Growth Outlook Improving, Hard To Be Too Negative Heading Into 2026 With 3Q reporting nearing an end and the fourth quarter coming into focus, we’re seeing an interesting trend: earnings estimates are once again being revised higher—much like what we saw in the third quarter. This pattern is unusual, especially at this stage of the year. The 4Q earnings estimate now stands at 8.2%, up from 7.7% on October 1. Revenue expectations are also strong, with forecasts calling for 7.0% gro… View More