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Markets & Economy One Year Post Inauguration

by Fortem Financial January 20, 2026

Love him or hate him, President Trump will likely be remembered as a consequential president. His historical shadow may overwhelm all but a few. Setting aside the current tensions in the North Sea, the Trump Administration’s market report card is quite good – stocks up, bond yields down, and mortgage rates and retail gasoline prices lower. The most significant blemish is the decline in the US Dollar. The broader economic picture has also shown relatively steady results, with real growth han… View More

Bob Doll's 10 Predictions For 2026

by Fortem Financial January 13, 2026

Each year, we like to bring you the top 10 predictions from our Friend Bob Doll, who is Chief Investment Officer and CEO of Crossmark Investments. We have been following Bob's predictions since he was the Chief Investment Officer at Merrill Lynch and BlackRock. He is right more than wrong, so this is a good guide for what the next year will look like for the economy and Markets.   10 Predictions For 2026   Theme: High-Risk Bull Market Source: Bob Doll CEO/CFO, Crossmark Investment… View More

Initial Thoughts As 2026 Begins

by Fortem Financial January 5, 2026

In today’s note, we discuss our initial thoughts as 2026 begins, noting that double-digit return years are not uncommon, and we explore how the fundamental broadening of the S&P is being pushed out further in 2026.   Returns Exceeding 15% For A Fourth Consecutive Year Not Unheard Of Since 1926, there have been four instances in which the S&P 500 posted returns greater than 15% for three consecutive years. In only one of those cases did the market experience a negative return in the… View More

The Santa Claus Rally Begins

by Fortem Financial December 29, 2025

U.S. equity markets began the holiday‑shortened trading week on a firm footing. Broad gains in major indexes and the start of the Santa Claus rally marked this week. Following modest volatility in trading earlier in December, sentiment improved significantly as investors bet on year-end flows. As shown, the CNN Fear-Greed Index has moved materially higher from its readings earlier in the month. The Santa Claus rally window officially began on Christmas Eve. That rally is traditionally defined… View More

Year-End Market Commentary

by Fortem Financial December 22, 2025

As 2025 draws to a close, markets are poised for a potential Santa Claus rally amid a year of solid gains. The S&P 500 is up over 15% year-to-date, on track for its third consecutive double-digit advance, driven by resilient economic growth, AI momentum, and Fed rate cuts. Despite a shaky December—with indices slightly lower so far this month due to profit-taking in tech and AI jitters—historical seasonality favors upside into year-end and early 2026. Small-caps and value sectors have s… View More

Bob Doll's 2025 10 Predictions Year-End Recap

by Fortem Financial December 15, 2025

Each year, we bring you our friend, the CEO and CFO of Crossmark Investments, and his annual predictions that will affect the market. The following is a recap of his predictions:   Summary The U.S stock market experienced a better-than-expected third year in a row of double-digit percentage gains. Earnings growth was quite good as AI-related businesses exceeded expectations. A 20% tariff-related decline led to a 40% recovery in the S&P 500. By year-end, investors are hopeful for yet anot… View More

What's Important Now

by Fortem Financial December 9, 2025

Earnings Growth Outlook Improving, Hard To Be Too Negative Heading Into 2026 With 3Q reporting nearing an end and the fourth quarter coming into focus, we’re seeing an interesting trend: earnings estimates are once again being revised higher—much like what we saw in the third quarter. This pattern is unusual, especially at this stage of the year. The 4Q earnings estimate now stands at 8.2%, up from 7.7% on October 1. Revenue expectations are also strong, with forecasts calling for 7.0% gro… View More

What's Important Now

by Fortem Financial December 1, 2025

In today’s Investment Strategy Note, we discuss the undeniably strong profit trends, begin to consider the narrative heading into 2026, and address the two near-term risks we continue to observe.   Profit Growth Continues To Trend Higher With the third quarter reporting season nearly wrapped up, the fundamental backdrop for equities remains supportive as we move toward 2026. As of the end of November, the subsequent twelve-month earnings growth stands at 12.5%, the highest level since Janu… View More

All Eyes On Nvidia

by Fortem Financial November 24, 2025

Nvidia Delivery Wasn’t Enough, Fed Cuts By Year 2026 Ticking Higher Nvidia’s earnings report didn’t raise any red flags; in fact, it was expected to help ease concerns about the broader A.I. capex cycle. The market’s reversal last week seemed driven by factors beyond A.I. alone. It’s also worth noting that Fed rate-cut odds have started to tick higher again. Despite the ongoing commentary from Fed officials about lingering inflation risks, there are not many signs of seeing that infla… View More

"Affordability" VS. Inflation

by Fortem Financial November 17, 2025

A relatively new term was bandied about during and after the off-year elections held two weeks ago that the chattering classes deemed critical in determining the outcome – “affordability”. The thesaurus function built into the Word program in which this essay found no synonyms for affordability. Still, taking a stab at it and say that it is a euphemism for inflation. It’s hard to know, of course, but it seems reasonable to assume that the cost of everyday items has become an increasingly… View More

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