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2023 Has Been Full of Surprises but Fundamentals Should Prevail

I came across an interesting article that discusses the disjointed market we have seen thus far in 2023. We believe fundamentals will drive this market as we progress through the year and believe our portfolios are positioned to reduce volatility as we proceed forward. We are overweight good high dividend paying value stocks at this time which are trading at a discount to the overall market.   Mysterious Ways: Growth vs. Value Debate by Liz Ann Sonders, Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab, 5/3/23… View More

New Division Announcement | Fortem Insurance

We would like to announce exciting news. For several years, our clients have been asking to have us deliver additional added services to continue with the Ultimate Client Experience they are accustomed to. We are proud to announce that Fortem Financial has officially launched Fortem Insurance Services. This will allow us to enhance your client experience by integrating key aspects of insurance within your financial plan. Please give us a call today if you would like a review. Some of the new … View More

All Eyes on the Fed this Week

For nine of the last fifteen years, few people thought about the Fed. Sure, we discussed QT and QE, but the Federal Reserve held interest rates at zero year after year. In 2017 and 2018, they lifted rates, and it was all anyone talked about. Then they cut them to zero and the noise went away. Now, with rates headed up, all eyes are again on the Fed, and investors are parsing every word of its statements and the Powell press conferences. As of Friday, the futures market expects a quarter-point r… View More

Q1 2023 Earnings Update

1Q Earnings Marginally Ahead Of Initial Estimates After the second week of earnings reports, growth rates continue to improve marginally compared to initial estimates and now are expected to decline -4.7%, a slight improvement from last week’s -4.8%. Furthermore, sales are now expected to grow 1.9% which means margin contraction remains the story as higher costs weigh on profits. Perhaps most notable is the deceleration in financial sector earnings growth after the initial large banks reporte… View More

“Shareholder's Equity” Declines to All-Time Low Profits Growth/Margins Now a Liability

In an effort to be dispassionate about our market forecast, we have categorized 16 basic building blocks of market strength as either assets or liabilities on a regular basis since 2002. The weighted and unweighted measures of Strategas’ “Shareholder’s Equity” dropped to an all-time low for the series. The proximate cause for the decline was our recategorization of Profit Growth/Margins as a Liability rather than an asset. The last time this exercise was conducted was before 4Q ’22 ea… View More

The U.S. Economy Does Not Appear to Be in Recession Now but Seems to Be Heading That Way...

Some cracks are appearing in the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims with revisions were 228,000 last week. The ISM mfg & svc indices both fell notably in March. The Fed’s H.8 release showed bank loans declining at the end of March. The Dallas Fed reported loan demand was down with contacts noting “waning consumer confidence from recent financial instability as a concern.” The American Banker Association (ABA) indicated tighter credit conditions. We continue to believe the Fed’s Se… View More

Are We in the Eye of a Hurricane?

U.S. equities were higher for the third week in a row (S&P 500 +3.5%). Headlines were sparse, with lower volatility around banks. Flows to money market accounts eased from the prior two weeks. Best sectors were energy (+6.2%) and consumer discretionary (+5.6%); worst sectors were communication services (+1.5%) and healthcare (+1.8%).   Where Do Earnings Expectations Stand As We Head Into 1Q Earnings Season? With the first quarter earnings season set to begin in a couple of weeks, 2023 EP… View More

The Fed Waffles

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%. The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important issue in monetary policy. That most important issue is the money supply, which surged by 40% in the first two years of COVID, the fastest since the 1940s, and has since dropped by the most since the Great Depression. You would thi… View More

Regional Banks are on Shaky Ground. Are the Big Banks Next?

Has the Bank Crisis Really Been Solved? After conversing with our Chief Economist Don Rissmiller yesterday about the status of the banking system, the question came up about whether the risk of deposit flight still remains. Commercial bank deposits, which yield next to nothing, have fallen by roughly -$571 bn while money market mutual funds, which yield closer to 4%, have taken in +$456 bn since the hiking cycle started. With the ability to move money by the click of a button, the search for de… View More

The Banking Crisis

Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments   Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com   … View More

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PRIVACY NOTICE REGARDING CLIENT PRIVACY

Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

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We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at www.fortemfin.com.

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