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The U.S. Economy Does Not Appear to Be in Recession Now but Seems to Be Heading That Way...

Some cracks are appearing in the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims with revisions were 228,000 last week. The ISM mfg & svc indices both fell notably in March. The Fed’s H.8 release showed bank loans declining at the end of March. The Dallas Fed reported loan demand was down with contacts noting “waning consumer confidence from recent financial instability as a concern.” The American Banker Association (ABA) indicated tighter credit conditions. We continue to believe the Fed’s Se… View More

Are We in the Eye of a Hurricane?

U.S. equities were higher for the third week in a row (S&P 500 +3.5%). Headlines were sparse, with lower volatility around banks. Flows to money market accounts eased from the prior two weeks. Best sectors were energy (+6.2%) and consumer discretionary (+5.6%); worst sectors were communication services (+1.5%) and healthcare (+1.8%).   Where Do Earnings Expectations Stand As We Head Into 1Q Earnings Season? With the first quarter earnings season set to begin in a couple of weeks, 2023 EP… View More

The Fed Waffles

The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%. The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important issue in monetary policy. That most important issue is the money supply, which surged by 40% in the first two years of COVID, the fastest since the 1940s, and has since dropped by the most since the Great Depression. You would thi… View More

Regional Banks are on Shaky Ground. Are the Big Banks Next?

Has the Bank Crisis Really Been Solved? After conversing with our Chief Economist Don Rissmiller yesterday about the status of the banking system, the question came up about whether the risk of deposit flight still remains. Commercial bank deposits, which yield next to nothing, have fallen by roughly -$571 bn while money market mutual funds, which yield closer to 4%, have taken in +$456 bn since the hiking cycle started. With the ability to move money by the click of a button, the search for de… View More

The Banking Crisis

Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Investments   Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com   … View More

Inflation Fighting, Recession Uncertainty, and Now, Credit Crunch Concerns

Equities had their worst week since September (S&P 500 -4.6%). All sectors were down with banks the biggest decliners due to the SIVB financial failure. Treasuries rallied across the curve, with two-year yields recording their largest two-day move since 9/11. Best sector performers for the week were consumer staples (-1.9%), utilities (-2.9%), and technology (-3.1%). Worst performers were financials (-8.5%), materials (-7.6%), and REITS (-7.0%).   Chart reflects price changes, not tot… View More

SIVB Bank Update

As we are sure you have seen, the FDIC stepped in to take over Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) over the weekend. First and foremost, we want to assure that your assets at Charles Schwab are safe and secure. To begin, we want to highlight a key difference between investment (brokerage accounts) and bank deposit accounts. Investment accounts are held in trust name for a client’s benefit. The assets are not comingled with the brokerage company’s assets. Because of this, if the brokerage company we… View More

The Choppiness Continues

U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +1.9%) after three weeks of declines. Markets continued to reprice upward Fed rate expectations. Best sectors were materials (+4.0%), communication services (+3.3%) and industrials (+3.3%); worst performers were utilities (-0.7%) and consumer staples (-4.0%). 1. There is clearly not yet enough progress on inflation to satisfy the Fed which means higher risk of ongoing hikes. This factor coupled with declining money supply and the inverted yield c… View More

1st Annual Coachella Valley Giving Day

Dear Clients,   Today is the 1st Annual Coachella Valley Giving Day. CV Giving Day brings the region together as one community, raising money and awareness for local nonprofits in the Coachella Valley. Fortem Financial is a long-time supporter of the local non-profit, Martha's Village & Kitchen, where their mission is transforming lives of the impoverished and homeless. All donations made today up to $20,000.00 will be matched. Visit the Martha's donation page here: CV Giving Day Martha'… View More

Seven Things I Didn't Know At the Start of the Year

"There are two types of economists," said famed economist John Kenneth Galbraith, "those who don't know, and those who don't know they don't know." This, along with movie producer William Goldman's assertion that "nobody knows anything" are two quotes that remind us to be humble when making forecasts about the future path of the economy and the financial markets. To the extent to which economics will always be a social science and never a hard science like, let's say, chemistry, it is incumbent … View More

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PRIVACY NOTICE REGARDING CLIENT PRIVACY

Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at www.fortemfin.com.

IMPORTANT CONSUMER DISCLOSURE

Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

All statements and opinions included on this website are subject to change as economic and market conditions dictate, and do not necessarily represent the views of Fortem Financial or any of their respective affiliates. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that any views, outlooks, projections or forward-looking statements will come to pass. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and the profitability of any particular investment strategy or product cannot be guaranteed.

Any rating referenced herein may not be representative of any one client's experience. Further, the Firm's receipt of any rating is not indicative of the Firm's future performance. The Charles E. Merrill Circle of Excellence award is granted by Merrill Lynch for outstanding client service and satisfaction. The award is granted based on annual criteria established by Merrill Lynch for its top decile advisors. The Barron's Top 1,200 Financial Advisors rating of the top financial advisors in the United States is based on data provided by participating firms. The following factors are included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component. The Palm Springs Life's "40 Under 40" Rising Young Professionals to Watch in the Coachella Valley is based upon nominations from the local business community and selected by the staff of Palm Springs Life.

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