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Magnificent 7 Continues to Dominate Market & Earnings Past and Present

Several weeks ago, we decided to reconstruct the S&P 500 by excluding the Magnificent 7 stocks from the sectors in which they normally reside and by creating a new separate sector for them. The characteristics of the new group of stocks were even more surprising than we might have thought. Looked at in this way as of the end of the third quarter, these seven stocks would represent the Index’s largest “sector” at roughly 28% of the S&P 500, while representing only 17% of its earning… View More

The Pause (In the Downtrend) That Refreshes

After reaching correction territory on Monday, stocks advanced each day with the S&P 500 (+5.9%) posting its best week in a year. Small stocks (Russell 2000 +7.6%) had their best week in two and a half years. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped 30bp for the week. Soft economic data and a dovish Fed meeting were among the supports. Best sectors were real estate (+8.6%), financials (+7.4%) and consumer discretionary (+7.2%). Laggards included energy (+2.3%), consumer staples (+3.3%), and healthca… View More

Fed Pause... For Now

The Fed kept rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but whether they are done with rate hikes or simply at a pause is yet to be determined. Today’s Fed statement itself was mostly a copy/paste of September, with some minor wording changes noting that the economy is growing at a “strong” rather than “solid” pace, and employment gains have “moderated” rather than “slowed”. The only new information came with the addition of “financial” conditions to previously noted credit con… View More

Stocks Break Below the Recent Trading Range: Stocks and Bonds are Both Oversold

Equities were lower again last week as the S&P 500 (-2.5%) fell for the second straight week and finished the week at the lowest levels since April. NASDAQ is now 12% below the recent July peak. Treasuries yields fell on the week, though not before the 10-year yield on Monday rose above 5% for the first time since 2007. The only positive sector for the week was utilities (+1.2%); worst sectors were communication services (-6.3%), and energy (-6.2%). Source: Bob Doll, Crossmark Investments… View More

Interesting List of Lists from our Research Provider

WHY WE BELIEVE LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES ARE RISING Reversion to the Mean: typical spread between 10-year & inflation is 200 bps Greater Sense Inflation is Structural: Slowing Globalization, Deficit Spending, Environmental Priorities Persistent Deficits 5% of GDP Spooling Effect of Net Interest Expense in the Absence of QE Fed has continued QT After SVB Pause Foreign Demand Weakening by Choice (Saudia Arabia) or Circumstance (China)   REASONS INFLATION LIKELY TO BE STRUCTURAL C… View More

Market Ramifications from the Middle East War

This brief note is not meant to cover all the events of recent days or exhaust the potential economic and market implications of the war in the Middle East. Our goal is to provide you insight into our view of the potential impacts of these events on the global markets. Factors impacting economic and market conditions:   Short Term This war could be lengthy, as Israel has stated its determination to destroy Hamas. Any escalation to include Iran is speculation at this point. The U.S. and W… View More

Growing Deficits Will Weigh on Growth

At the end of October, we will get our first look at real GDP growth for the third quarter, and it looks like it was solid. We’ll have a more exact estimate a week from now– after this week’s reports on retail sales, industrial production, and home building – but it looks like the economy grew at about a 4.5% annual rate. Even if that turns out right, however, the underlying pace of growth is much slower than what happened in Q3. From the end of 2019 through the third quarter, the avera… View More

Crisis Management Government Leads to No Good

Back in 2008, Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson, using fear of financial collapse, convinced President Bush and Congress to 1) pass a $700 billion bailout of banks (called TARP) and 2) allow the Federal Reserve to pay banks interest on reserves at the same time the Fed moved from a scarce reserve model of monetary policy to an abundant reserve policy. These policies, to spend and print massive amounts of money, were super-sized during COVID. Both policies proved incredibly damaging. The 2008 financ… View More

Turmoil in Washington "A House Without a Rudder"

Yesterday House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was voted down as House Majority leader by just a few members of his own party and most all members of the opposing party. There are no more Norms in Washington but does the end justify the means. What has been going on in Washington for more than a decade is not sustainable and something needs to change. The last few days in Washington has looked like a circus act. The Government is going to shut down because Congress has not approved spending for next ye… View More

October Weakness Before the Year-End Run?

While September had been a bit sloppy, will further weakness in October weigh on investor sentiment before the seasonally strong period begins? As shown by the S&P 500 index seasonality chart below, weakness in the last two weeks of September and the first two weeks of October is common. However, we must also understand that the big down move in the market during that period came from historical crashes such as the “Financial Crisis” in 2008. Excluding those periods, the market still ten… View More

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PRIVACY NOTICE REGARDING CLIENT PRIVACY

Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at www.fortemfin.com.

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

All statements and opinions included on this website are subject to change as economic and market conditions dictate, and do not necessarily represent the views of Fortem Financial or any of their respective affiliates. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that any views, outlooks, projections or forward-looking statements will come to pass. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and the profitability of any particular investment strategy or product cannot be guaranteed.

Any rating referenced herein may not be representative of any one client's experience. Further, the Firm's receipt of any rating is not indicative of the Firm's future performance. The Charles E. Merrill Circle of Excellence award is granted by Merrill Lynch for outstanding client service and satisfaction. The award is granted based on annual criteria established by Merrill Lynch for its top decile advisors. The Barron's Top 1,200 Financial Advisors rating of the top financial advisors in the United States is based on data provided by participating firms. The following factors are included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component. The Palm Springs Life's "40 Under 40" Rising Young Professionals to Watch in the Coachella Valley is based upon nominations from the local business community and selected by the staff of Palm Springs Life.

For information pertaining to the registration status of Fortem Financial, please refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, operated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov., which contains the most recent versions of the Firm's Form ADV disclosure documents.

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