Perspectives

U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +5.9%) more than erasing the prior week’s declines. A major factor in the upside was an outsized Thursday rally in the wake of a softer-than-expected report for October CPI. The softer inflation report sparked a flurry of dovish-leaning Fedspeak. Best performers were technology (+10.0%), communication services (+9.2%) and materials (+7.7%); worst performers were utilities (+1.4%), healthcare (+1.8%) and energy (+2.0%). Source: Bob Doll, Cro… View More

With earnings season more than 80% complete, EPS growth is expected to be 4.3% which is just below expectations at the beginning of the reporting season. On sector basis the data was mixed with 7 of the 11 sectors exceeding initial growth estimates led by energy. Turning to sales, the estimate growth rate is expected to be 11% which is ahead of the initial estimates of 9.7% on Oct. 1st. 2023 EPS Estimate Down To $233, Growth Expected To Be 5.3% The biggest story from our perspective has been… View More

Equities were higher for the second straight week (S&P 500 +4.0%). Despite multiple megacap earnings disappointments, the market remained resilient. The market is embracing the idea that the Fed could soon begin to slow the pace of tightening. Best performers were industrials (+6.7%) and utilities (+6.5%); worst performers were communication services (-2.9%) and consumer discretionary (+0.7%). 3Q Earnings Season Turning Out To Be Underwhelming With the third quarter earnings season about h… View More

Stocks rose last week (S&P 500 +4.7%) after falling to a 2.5 year low the week before. The increase was attributable to technical and sentiment reasons, but also Q3 earnings reports coming in less bad than feared. Best sectors were energy (+8.1%), technology (+6.5%), and materials (+6.2%); worst sectors were utilities (+2.0%), consumer staples (+2.2%), and healthcare (+2.3%). 3Q’22 Earnings Season Mixed So Far With just 20% of companies reporting thus far this earnings season, results ha… View More

The nearly 14 years of financial repression that allowed politicians to escape the economic consequences of their actions without fear of retribution from the frontier justice of free markets appears to be ending. The ever-expanding balance sheets of the world’s largest central banks effectively monetized the profligate spending of wayward fiscal policies in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Until recently, the unintended consequences of these policies were hidden from an eli… View More

Equities closed higher (S&P 500 +1.6%) in a roller-coaster week, snapping a three-week losing streak. Stocks bounced early in the week on oversold conditions and negative sentiment. There was also a renewed pickup in policy pivot hopes. The week ended with a stronger than hoped for employment report selloff. Best sector was energy (+13.9%); worst sectors were REITS (-4.1%) and utilities (-2.6%). 3Q Earnings Season To Kick Off Later This Week With The Banks With the banks expected to repo… View More

Stocks and bonds both declined for the third consecutive quarter, the longest streak in almost 50 years. The S&P 500 fell 5.3%, ten-year Treasury yields rose 85bps and two-year yields rose 130bps resulting in the most inverted yield curve in several decades. The dollar rose for the fifth straight quarter, increasing 7%, the largest quarterly gain in nearly 8 years. The big story for the quarter was the tightening of financial conditions driven by expectations of a more aggressive global rate… View More

Stocks And Bonds On Pace For 3rd Consecutive Negative Quarter Of the 187 quarters since 1976, there has never been a period that has seen negative quarterly returns for both stocks and bonds three quarters in a row. Should the S&P 500 close below 3,785 today, this will occur. Negative returns for both stocks and bonds are more often than not associated with recessions which are looking more and more likely these days. S&P 500 Sees Its Most Volatile Half Since 2009 My colleague, Todd… View More

We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 666. What a time to buy! After that we remained bullish. We didn’t recommend selling in spite of a wide range of fears that spooked many others, including the Great Recession lasting through 2010, a double-dip recession, a second wave of home foreclosures, an implosion in commercial real estate, the pass… View More

Midterm election years have historically been the most volatile year for stocks in the four-year presidential cycle. The average intra-year decline for the S&P 500 in a midterm election year is 19 percent, much higher than the 12-13 percent average in the first, third, and fourth years of the cycle. We would argue that monetary policy is generally tighter in a midterm election year and presidents pursue anti-growth policies to rally their bases. Today’s equity market fits the historical pa… View More