Fortem Financial

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It’s always tempting to prognosticate how a headline event – geopolitical conflict, Fed action, etc. – may change the complexion of the market, but it’s been our experience that exogenous inputs do more to reinforce trends already in place rather than change the game. We’re not sure anyone has a real edge on Russia / Ukraine, and if they did, it doesn’t mean they’ll get the market’s reaction function correct as well. Prior to the acceleration of this conflict over recent weeks, t… View More

The Push and Pull of the current Market and still earnings are good

After posting back-to-back weekly gains following the big January sell-off, equities were lower last week (S&P -1.8%). Value and small-cap beat growth and large-cap. Oil was higher for an eighth-straight week. The big story was the January CPI inflation surprise and hawkish Fed commentary. Best sectors were energy (+2.1%) and materials (+1.1%); worst sectors were communication services (-3.9%) and technology (-2.9%). 4Q Earnings Now 70% Reported The fundamental improvement for the aggreg… View More

A Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Inflation, and Supply Chain Issues Spook the Market

There were plenty of concerns to go around as we finished out the week including: The imminent risk of war between Russia and Ukraine continues to build. The NY Times on February 11th reported US officials have picked up intelligence suggesting Russia may invade Ukraine as early as Wednesday. Further chip shortages may result from a conflict with Russia. The White House warned the US Chip Industry on February 11th that Russia may retaliate against US sanctions by blocking access to key materia… View More

Inflation hitting where it hurts in food and energy

Inflation is starting to be noticed by everyone everywhere. We will not discuss the price of fuel which we expect will be north of $5.00 a gallon in California in the next few weeks. However, we do want to share a recent local “dining” experience. We were out to lunch the other day at a local Mexican restaurant that we have gone to for more than two decades, and we noticed the temporary copied paper menus on the table had replaced the regular menus. I always order the same thing at this plac… View More

Q4 earnings season continued to prove mediocre

U.S. equities finished last week mostly higher (S&P 500 +0.8%), coming off intraweek lows and rallying strongly on Friday. The S&P 500 moved into double-digit percentage loss territory several times before the end of the week rally. The market reacted negatively to the FOMC meeting, judging that the recent hawkish Fed repricing has more room to run. The Q4 earnings season also continued to prove mediocre, with supply disruptions and cost pressures showing up in too many reports. Best sec… View More


As we have mentioned over the last few months, we expect market volatility to increase in 2022. There are a number of reasons for our concern such as the long running bull market, real Inflation for the first time in more than 20 years and rising interest rates. Maybe our largest concern was the midterm elections while our other concerns are playing out. Midterm elections tend to have larger equity market corrections compared to non-midterm election years with an average intra-year decline of 19… View More

Week One Of Earnings Season Was Very Underwhelming and we have a Russia Problem…

The first quarter of 2022 is slowing. There’s a clear shock to demand (eg, closures for schools, flights, cruises, etc). U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 286,000 in the Jan 15th week, with existing home sales dipping -4.6% m/m in Dec. However, not all the U.S. data were negative, with the Philly Fed index rising to 23.2 in Jan (offsetting the plunge in the NY Fed manufacturing index earlier in the week). Housing starts rose month over month in Dec and the NAHB housing market index remained … View More


Increased Market volatility absolutely has to do with inflation and all eyes are looking on how the Fed can catch up from recent mistakes. It has been claimed that the first casualty in any war is the truth. In the fullness of time, historians of future generations will be charged with determining whether this maxim was accurate when it came to the all-out war waged by policymakers against COVID-19. Certainly, in addition to the tragic loss of life due to the virus, there have been other public … View More

4Q Earnings start to roll out and things could be choppy

4Q Earnings Season Could Be Choppy If Friday was any indication of how the earnings season will pan out, it could be a choppy one for investors. Earnings growth is largely expected to be robust along with sales growth. However, the headline figures are deceiving because energy is expected to recover significantly, propping up the S&P figure. Ex. Energy earnings growth is expected to be closer to 15% - still a respectable number. NTM EPS Still Marching Higher From a macro perspective, we w… View More

Market rotation, Leadership shift and Q4 Earnings start the year…

In our Monday reports, we always strive to first highlight what is most important for clients, but frankly, we debated what exactly that should be this morning. There was a long list of contenders… the breakout in global yields, the subtle weakness in USD, the momentum surge from the Banks, the strength out of the Energy stocks, the outperformance of Staples vs. Discretionary, the weakness in Software, the persistent selling of the market’s most speculative corners, or the breakdown in small… View More

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at


Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

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