Fortem Financial

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Interest Rate increase coming this week…

Higher interest rates plus higher commodity prices (energy + metals + food) indicate that we are likely headed for a period of below-trend economic growth. Central banks seem intent on moving to a more neutral policy setting (against the backdrop of continued global supply shocks). The ECB may delay rate hikes, but is looking to accelerate the end of asset purchases. In the U.S., the CPI surged +0.8% month over month and 7.9% year over year in February. The core (ex food & energy) CPI rose… View More

Oil Prices continue to climb with rate hikes coming soon… but still no real sign of Recession

Price Of Oil Most Stretched Since 1990 It’s no secret that the price of oil has skyrocketed over the last week and now stands at roughly 60% above its 200-day moving average. This is the most stretched it has been since the 1990 oil price shock when Iraq invaded Kuwait. During that period, the price of oil more than doubled in 3 months and stayed elevated for nearly six months. 1990 Saw A 20% Correction & A U.S. Recession During the 1990 oil shock, the S&P 500 corrected 20% and th… View More

Volatility Picks up but Markets were higher last week as war breaks out in Ukraine

Volatility Picks Up but Markets were higher last week as war breaks out in Ukraine U.S. equities were higher last week (S&P 500 +0.8%) thanks to big rallies on Thursday and Friday after big losses earlier in the week resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The rally came as new sanctions on Russia were seen as less severe than expected. Oil prices briefly exceeded $100 per barrel. Best performers included REITs (+2.7%) and utilities (+2.0%); worst performers were consumer discretiona… View More

RUSSIA invades Ukraine…Now What…

ANSWERS TO OUR FREQUENTLY ASKED CLIENT QUESTIONS ABOUT RUSSIA 1. With inflation running hot, the Fed likely to tighten, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine leading to a spike in the price of oil, how worried are you about a recession in the U.S.? We think the chances of a recession are relatively low in the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months. The labor market is tight, job openings are plentiful, monetary policy remains accommodative, and there remains a large reservoir of personal and corporat… View More


It’s always tempting to prognosticate how a headline event – geopolitical conflict, Fed action, etc. – may change the complexion of the market, but it’s been our experience that exogenous inputs do more to reinforce trends already in place rather than change the game. We’re not sure anyone has a real edge on Russia / Ukraine, and if they did, it doesn’t mean they’ll get the market’s reaction function correct as well. Prior to the acceleration of this conflict over recent weeks, t… View More

The Push and Pull of the current Market and still earnings are good

After posting back-to-back weekly gains following the big January sell-off, equities were lower last week (S&P -1.8%). Value and small-cap beat growth and large-cap. Oil was higher for an eighth-straight week. The big story was the January CPI inflation surprise and hawkish Fed commentary. Best sectors were energy (+2.1%) and materials (+1.1%); worst sectors were communication services (-3.9%) and technology (-2.9%). 4Q Earnings Now 70% Reported The fundamental improvement for the aggreg… View More

A Russian Invasion of Ukraine, Inflation, and Supply Chain Issues Spook the Market

There were plenty of concerns to go around as we finished out the week including: The imminent risk of war between Russia and Ukraine continues to build. The NY Times on February 11th reported US officials have picked up intelligence suggesting Russia may invade Ukraine as early as Wednesday. Further chip shortages may result from a conflict with Russia. The White House warned the US Chip Industry on February 11th that Russia may retaliate against US sanctions by blocking access to key materia… View More

Inflation hitting where it hurts in food and energy

Inflation is starting to be noticed by everyone everywhere. We will not discuss the price of fuel which we expect will be north of $5.00 a gallon in California in the next few weeks. However, we do want to share a recent local “dining” experience. We were out to lunch the other day at a local Mexican restaurant that we have gone to for more than two decades, and we noticed the temporary copied paper menus on the table had replaced the regular menus. I always order the same thing at this plac… View More

Q4 earnings season continued to prove mediocre

U.S. equities finished last week mostly higher (S&P 500 +0.8%), coming off intraweek lows and rallying strongly on Friday. The S&P 500 moved into double-digit percentage loss territory several times before the end of the week rally. The market reacted negatively to the FOMC meeting, judging that the recent hawkish Fed repricing has more room to run. The Q4 earnings season also continued to prove mediocre, with supply disruptions and cost pressures showing up in too many reports. Best sec… View More


As we have mentioned over the last few months, we expect market volatility to increase in 2022. There are a number of reasons for our concern such as the long running bull market, real Inflation for the first time in more than 20 years and rising interest rates. Maybe our largest concern was the midterm elections while our other concerns are playing out. Midterm elections tend to have larger equity market corrections compared to non-midterm election years with an average intra-year decline of 19… View More

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at


Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

All statements and opinions included on this website are subject to change as economic and market conditions dictate, and do not necessarily represent the views of Fortem Financial or any of their respective affiliates. Past performance may not be indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that any views, outlooks, projections or forward-looking statements will come to pass. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and the profitability of any particular investment strategy or product cannot be guaranteed.

Any rating referenced herein may not be representative of any one client's experience. Further, the Firm's receipt of any rating is not indicative of the Firm's future performance. The Charles E. Merrill Circle of Excellence award is granted by Merrill Lynch for outstanding client service and satisfaction. The award is granted based on annual criteria established by Merrill Lynch for its top decile advisors. The Barron's Top 1,200 Financial Advisors rating of the top financial advisors in the United States is based on data provided by participating firms. The following factors are included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component. The Palm Springs Life's "40 Under 40" Rising Young Professionals to Watch in the Coachella Valley is based upon nominations from the local business community and selected by the staff of Palm Springs Life.

For information pertaining to the registration status of Fortem Financial, please refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website, operated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, at, which contains the most recent versions of the Firm's Form ADV disclosure documents.