Fortem Financial

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Economy is recovering much faster than expected. The current risk is over stimulation.

Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, said last week that "we have a lot of work to do (to raise inflation) … This narrative of a new inflation environment, I just put very little weight on it" (Reuters). Global central bankers are sticking by their models. But this is likely to get more difficult as the year progresses. The duration & composition of inflation (rather than the number we pop up to) is important for monetary policymakers. But different data may matter for investors (espe… View More

Trying to look forward to Q2 earnings is not so easy

With 90% Reported Earnings Growth Still Greater Than 50% For 1Q With 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings thus far, earning growth for 1Q is still expected to be greater than 50%, while revenue growth is near 13%. We do not anticipate any material changes this upcoming week and expect most investors to begin thinking about 2Q and beyond. 2Q Earnings Growth Expected To Be Just As Strong Currently, the second-quarter earnings season is expected to see earnings growth just as strong a… View More

Inflation Surges to 4.2% - Should we be worried?

The big headline is that year-over-year inflation came in at +4.2%. What the headline leaves out is that inflation hit a period low in May 2020, meaning much of the inflation data we are seeing now is simply “catching up” to where things would have been if we had never had the 2020 recession. It also fails to mention that inflation almost ALWAYS runs higher during the recovery from a recessionary period. Summary: More often than not, stocks appreciate in an inflationary environment Cash l… View More

Hard to say sell in May and go away when the economy is hitting on all cylinders and demand is picking up

We remain focused on the economy’s progression through the traditional start-of-cycle sequence, that is: a catalyst – in this case, the broad distribution of the vaccine and the re-opening of the economy – leads, in succession, to an increase in activity, demand, output, revenue, investment, and profits. By our lights, the durability of the expansion is largely defined by the self-reinforcing increase in corporate investment fueled by the post-contraction repair of the revenue stack. The s… View More


It’s been more than a year since the Technology sector has made any relative progress vs. the S&P, it’s the longest stretch of indifference since roughly 2013. Granted the bar has been high given the broader market’s run, but nevertheless, it continues to mark a noted shift in tone, made all the more significant given a static Fed and some great earnings last week. Last May over 70% of Technology stocks were in a relative uptrend vs. the S&P (easy to find a leader), while today’s… View More

Yes, we really are in a V-shaped recovery and the economy is far from weak!

In a gallop poll out today: Current Economy Evaluations Improved, but Have Been Better During Pandemic In the new survey, 28% describe current economic conditions as either excellent or good, while 26% say they are poor. Last month, 23% rated current conditions as excellent or good and 31% as poor. The April ratings are not the best they have been for this aspect of the index during the pandemic. In November, positive evaluations of current economic conditions exceeded negative ones by 13 per… View More

Heard Immunity is just around the corner and the economy is picking up as expected

Parts of the global economy continue to face new lockdowns because the pandemic is not over. But the endgame still appears to be the availability of effective medical vaccines, which will allow economic re-openings. The U.S. is providing further evidence. Recent U.S. economic data has been strong overall. Retail sales surged +9.8% m/m in March, initial jobless claims plunged to 576,000 last week (the lowest since the pandemic hit last year). The NY Fed manufacturing index rose to 26.3 in April a… View More


One of our research providers developed their “L-E-S” model about 20 years ago to keep track of what we believe are the most basic building blocks of market health – Liquidity, Earnings, and Sentiment. There is currently a yawning gap between the recent performance of the market and what their model suggests its performance will be over the next two years. Naturally, it is extremely risky to be short risk assets at all when M2 is growing at 27%. Still, one could argue that it will be diffi… View More

The economy is better than anyone in Washington predicted

The next several months are likely to test the resolve of the Federal Reserve to maintain its “all in” support. U.S. policymakers continue to target employment. There’s still some labor market slack, but the U.S. economy is picking up quickly now. U.S. mobility measures have already been increasing (ahead of herd immunity). This trajectory remains consistent with timely industry data (eg, TSA travel statistics, restaurant reservations). The Conference Board measure of U.S. consumer confid… View More

President Biden's Infrastructure Plan and the Largest Tax Increase Since 1968

2020 will be a year we will all remember. Not only was it the year the global economy was abruptly shut down for the Covid-19 Pandemic, but it was also the year we saw the biggest (by a very large margin) fiscal and monetary stimulus ever. So far, it looks like 2021 is another year we will never forget. The fiscal and monetary stimulus numbers in 2020 are bigger than they were in 2021, and the proposed tax increase to pay for it all will be the biggest tax increase since 1968. On March 31, 2021… View More

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at


Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

This website is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding the Firm's investment advisory services offered to U.S. residents residing in states where providing such information is not prohibited by applicable law. Accordingly, the publication of Fortem Financial' website on the Internet should not be construed by any consumer and/or prospective client as a solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Furthermore, the information resulting from the use of any tools or other information on this website should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as the receipt of, or a substitute for, personalized individual advice from Fortem Financial. Any subsequent direct communication from Fortem Financial with a prospective client will be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. Fortem Financial does not make any representations as to the accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness, or relevance of any information prepared by any unaffiliated third party, whether linked to this website or incorporated herein, and takes no responsibility therefore. All such information is provided for convenience purposes only and all users thereof should be guided accordingly.

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Any rating referenced herein may not be representative of any one client's experience. Further, the Firm's receipt of any rating is not indicative of the Firm's future performance. The Charles E. Merrill Circle of Excellence award is granted by Merrill Lynch for outstanding client service and satisfaction. The award is granted based on annual criteria established by Merrill Lynch for its top decile advisors. The Barron's Top 1,200 Financial Advisors rating of the top financial advisors in the United States is based on data provided by participating firms. The following factors are included in the rankings: assets under management, revenue produced for the firm, regulatory record, quality of practice and philanthropic work. Investment performance is not an explicit component. The Palm Springs Life's "40 Under 40" Rising Young Professionals to Watch in the Coachella Valley is based upon nominations from the local business community and selected by the staff of Palm Springs Life.

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