Fortem Financial

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Update on Washington's proposed spending

BREAKING DOWN THE MAJOR SPENDING PROVISIONS IN THE RECONCILIATION BILL We thought you might appreciate seeing a summary of some of the provisions in the budget bill now being considered in Washington. This is a very large bill, and amazingly, if Congress keeps to its schedule they will have presented, considered, amended, and voted on it in less than 30 days. Because this bill is so large in size and broad in scope, we believe it will affect many parts of the economy. We believe it may also hav… View More


Over the weekend Congress continued to work on the budget proposal and its accompanying tax increases. It looks like reconciliation will be used to pass them. On Saturday, the House Ways and Means Committee released 650 pages of legislative text for renewable energy, social safety nets, infrastructure bonding, and health care proposals. Yesterday, we saw the unofficial, initial outline of the House plan for tax increases, which contained roughly $2 trillion in new/additional taxes. The proposal… View More

Is The Economy starting to show signs of slowing?

The stagflation scare continues. Economic bottlenecks are lasting longer than expected. There have been new disruptions in the third quarter (eg, harsh weather, new auto plant shutdowns). The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence fell in August. U.S. vehicle sales plunged again to a 13.1 million SAAR. We’re lowering our forecast for U.S. real GDP growth in the third quarter to 2% q/q A.R. from 4.8% previously. We’re relying on inventory rebuilding to contribute to growth, as consum… View More


“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Mark Twain. To be honest, we are not particularly big fans of relying on seasonal patterns, especially in an environment when policymakers are breaking all the rules. Every snap either seems to be an audible or a broken play. Still, we believe we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that, since 1950,… View More


Good morning. We hope everyone is enjoying their summer. With the summer coming to a close, we see a growing number of client questions on policy issues impacting financial markets. Below we outline the latest state of play on the bipartisan infrastructure package, the $3.5 trillion spending budget and legislation, a potential government shutdown, the debt ceiling, and the reappointment of Fed Chairman Jay Powell. The recent news from Afghanistan, notwithstanding its geopolitical implications, … View More

Looking at what’s down the road

Liquidity Growth Slowing Along With S&P Rate Of Change The growth in M2 has been slowing for several months now, and it should come as no surprise that the rate of change in the S&P is slowing as well. This is very typical at this point in the recovery as we lap the months where liquidity was injected, and the S&P rose from the lows following the crisis. As we have stated in the past, returns are more challenging in year two and year three following a bear market. Earnings Growth T… View More

Passing the Infrastructure Bill

The Senate just passed a new 2,700 page $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill. From the Senate, the bill moves to the House where Speaker Pelosi has suggested she will not take up the bill until Senate Democrats pass a separate (and much more expensive) package without GOP votes under a budget reconciliation process. Because this bill includes the largest tax increases since 1968 (nearly three times the size of the tax increases enacted by Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Obama), we feel it is im… View More

With Nearly 90% Reported, 2Q Earnings & Revenue Growth Stellar

With just shy of 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings for the 2nd quarter, earnings growth is expected to be greater than 93%. In addition, revenue growth is estimated to be 23.5%. Both readings are well above the levels that were originally expected this reporting season. Last week also marked the second consecutive week both earnings and revenue growth expectations rose for every sector. Quarterly Progression Showing A Weaker 3Q Than 2Q Now While year-over-year earnings gr… View More

Earnings, Revenues, GDP and Inflation all run hot and still no raise in interest rates in the near future

Bottlenecks have been larger than anticipated. Inflation is starting to register on the D.C. political radar, but a wait-and-see approach is still favored. U.S. inflation is (still) viewed as transitory. Recent U.S. bond market moves have not scared the Fed. The 10-year Treasury finished last week at 1.22%. As we noted last week, the rise in inflation is pushing down real (inflation-adjusted) spending & GDP growth. U.S. nominal GDP was +13% q/q A.R. in 2Q, but inflation was 6%. Consumer sp… View More

Review of Q2 Earnings

Despite some challenges, 2Q economic growth looks solid. 3Q is more of a question mark. The rise in inflation is pushing down real (inflation-adjusted) spending & GDP growth (the core CPI rose at an 8.1% q/q annualized rate in 2Q). Rents are starting to rise. Supply-chain bottlenecks could last longer than expected, especially given uneven global vaccine distribution & effectiveness. If there is hesitation to re-open schools for the next academic year, labor force participation could re… View More

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Fortem Financial Group, LLC, has adopted this policy with recognition that protecting the privacy and security of the non-public personal information we obtain about our customers is an important responsibility.

All financial companies choose how they share your non-public personal information. Federal law gives consumers the right to limit some but not all sharing. Federal law also requires us to tell you how we collect, share, and protect your non-public personal information. Even when you are no longer our customer, we will only share your non-public personal information as described in this notice. So, please read this notice carefully to understand what we do.

The types of non-public personal information we collect and share depend on the product or service you have with us. This information can include items such as your Social Security number and income, your account balances and transaction history, and your investment experience and account transactions.

We collect your non-public personal information in a variety of ways. For example, we obtain your non-public personal information when you open an account or give us your income information, tell us about your portfolio or deposit money, or enter into an investment advisory contract. We also collect your non-public personal information from other companies. For example, from the custodians who hold your account assets.

All financial companies need to share customer’s non-public personal information to run their everyday business. Below, we describe the reasons we can share your non-public personal information and whether you can limit this sharing.

We share your non-public personal information for our everyday business purposes such as to process your transactions, maintain your account(s), respond to court orders and legal investigations, report to credit bureaus, to protect the confidentiality or security of your records, or as permitted by law. We may also share your non-public personal information for our own firm’s marketing purposes; so that we can offer our products and services to you.

Federal law gives you the right to limit only sharing non-public personal information about your credit worthiness for our affiliates’ everyday business purposes; sharing non-public personal information about you with our affiliates to market to you; and sharing non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you.

We don’t share non-public personal information about your creditworthiness with our affiliates for their everyday business purposes. We don’t share your non-public personal information with our affiliates to market to you. We don’t share your non-public personal information with non-affiliates to market to you. We also don’t share your non-public personal information for joint marketing with other financial companies. State laws and individual companies may give you additional rights to limit sharing.

We share non-public personal information with our parent company affiliate, Focus Financial Partners, Inc, for its internal and external auditing purposes. We also share your non-public personal information with a non-affiliate for the purpose of aggregating it and providing summary information based on this data to our parent company, Focus Financial Partners, Inc.

To protect your non-public personal information from unauthorized access and use, we use security measures that comply with federal law. These measures include computer safeguards and secured files and buildings.

Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

If you have questions please call us at 760-206-8500 or go to our website at


Fortem Financial Group, LLC ("Fortem Financial" or the "Firm") is a federally registered investment adviser with offices in California and Arizona. Fortem Financial and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration and notice filing requirements imposed upon federally registered investment advisers by those states in which Fortem Financial maintains clients. Fortem Financial may only transact business in those states in which it is notice filed, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from notice filing requirements.

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