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Q3 Earnings and Stagflation

by Fortem Financial October 19, 2021

We may be approaching “peak bottleneck”. The Atlanta Fed’s tracking estimate for U.S. real GDP in 3Q is down to 1.2% q/q A.R. Separately, U of Mich consumer sentiment remained depressed at 71.4 in October. Yet, we are seeing early signs that the global production & transportation situation, while not close to being solved, may finally be turning. U.S. initial jobless claims falling to 293,000 last week suggest an inflection. This doesn’t make the inflation we’re seeing now (eg, Sep… View More

Stagflation and Q3 earnings on the menu for this week

by Fortem Financial October 11, 2021

Given bottlenecks and supply constraints, we are continuing to see a stagflation scare (weaker growth + sticky inflation) in the global economy. Concerns are likely to persist into 2022. But as firms change the way they do business to combat this issue, output-per-hour (productivity) gains are starting to occur. Productivity allows the opposite of stagflation: stronger growth and muted inflation since there are more goods & services produced. Put another way, straining the economy in ways it… View More

Outside of reconciliation, the only way the debt ceiling gets resolved is if one party caves, which is never easy to do

by Fortem Financial October 4, 2021

DEMOCRATIC DIVISIONS OVER THE SPENDING PACKAGE EXPLODED OVER THE WEEKEND Last Thursday Strategas (one of our research partners) outlined all of the troubles Democrats were having in moving their agenda forward and that the infrastructure vote was likely to be delayed. The delay of the infrastructure package did materialize but during that process, we saw a level of optimism emanating from Congressional leadership that a deal could take place on Friday. Senator Manchin put out his price tag Thur… View More

Inflation - Yes or No?

by Fortem Financial October 1, 2021

With inflation a key concern for most investors, we wanted to share a paper we read this week written by Bob Doll at Crossmark Global Investments. We thought it was a great review of what is happening with inflation now. Read Story   … View More

Is this the start of stagflation like we saw in the 70’s?

by Fortem Financial September 27, 2021

Global supply chain struggles have persisted in 3Q, and look set to linger for at least several more quarters. Energy prices have surged in Europe, and transportation issues are creating petrol lines in the U.K. Data from China have shown notable disruptions, though fears of financial contagion came and went quickly last week. “U.S. shipping operations remain clogged as ports, truckers and warehouses can’t find enough workers or agree on 24/7 operations … Tens of thousands of containers a… View More

They call it a Black Swan for a reason

by Fortem Financial September 20, 2021

A black swan event in the investment world is an extremely negative and usually hard to predict event; "Evergrande" has been labeled by some as just such an event. It is the latest event in China to affect the US and global markets. Many US investment banks like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have exposure to “Evergrande”, and their stocks are paying for it today. These companies represent more than 120 points of the loss on the Dow Jones Industrial average … View More

Update on Washington's proposed spending

by Fortem Financial September 14, 2021

BREAKING DOWN THE MAJOR SPENDING PROVISIONS IN THE RECONCILIATION BILL We thought you might appreciate seeing a summary of some of the provisions in the budget bill now being considered in Washington. This is a very large bill, and amazingly, if Congress keeps to its schedule they will have presented, considered, amended, and voted on it in less than 30 days. Because this bill is so large in size and broad in scope, we believe it will affect many parts of the economy. We believe it may also hav… View More

FIRST LOOK AT THE HOUSE TAX INCREASE PROPOSAL

by Fortem Financial September 13, 2021

Over the weekend Congress continued to work on the budget proposal and its accompanying tax increases. It looks like reconciliation will be used to pass them. On Saturday, the House Ways and Means Committee released 650 pages of legislative text for renewable energy, social safety nets, infrastructure bonding, and health care proposals. Yesterday, we saw the unofficial, initial outline of the House plan for tax increases, which contained roughly $2 trillion in new/additional taxes. The proposal… View More

Is The Economy starting to show signs of slowing?

by Fortem Financial September 7, 2021

The stagflation scare continues. Economic bottlenecks are lasting longer than expected. There have been new disruptions in the third quarter (eg, harsh weather, new auto plant shutdowns). The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence fell in August. U.S. vehicle sales plunged again to a 13.1 million SAAR. We’re lowering our forecast for U.S. real GDP growth in the third quarter to 2% q/q A.R. from 4.8% previously. We’re relying on inventory rebuilding to contribute to growth, as consum… View More

SEASONALS ANOTHER CHALLENGE FOR “A SEPTEMBER TO REMEMBER”

by Fortem Financial August 30, 2021

“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.” Mark Twain. To be honest, we are not particularly big fans of relying on seasonal patterns, especially in an environment when policymakers are breaking all the rules. Every snap either seems to be an audible or a broken play. Still, we believe we would be remiss if we didn’t point out that, since 1950,… View More

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Our policy about obtaining and disclosing non-public personal information may change from time to time. We will provide you notice of any material change to this policy before we implement the change.

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