Perspectives

We have received a number of questions from clients on what we can expect with the new Administration in Washington. Potential tax increases have been the number one question from clients over the past week. We see fiscal stimulus coming in two parts, with the first package focused on income replacement which can pass by the end of February. The second package, which will likely be considered mid-year, is a more complicated legislative vehicle, focused on long-term structural changes to the US e… View More

After one of the craziest weeks I can ever remember, Equity markets surged higher on expectations that Washington DC is poised to deliver more financial stimulus. The Senate runoff races in Georgia were both won by Democrats and they have been promising $2000 stimulus checks to a large portion of the U.S. population. As a result, inflation expectations and a potential rise in economic activity fueled the S&P 500 index to a 1.59% gain last week. Cyclicals led the way as Energy, Materials, and… View More

Happy New Year! As 2021 gets underway, we want to start this morning by highlighting just how rare last year’s price action was. The March S&P low (2192) undercut the prior year’s low (2444), and last week’s year-end close (3756) was above the prior year’s high (3248)… we can find only 3 other examples in the last 90+ years where such is also the case (1935, 1982, and 2016). While hardly a robust sample, the S&P was up double-digits in the year following these past observation… View More

Treasury Yields dropped slightly over the course of the week on increased Covid-19 worries. On Monday, a reported more transmissible mutation of the novel coronavirus in the United Kingdom led to further lockdowns in the country and concerns across the world that the pandemic would worsen. Governments across Europe were closing travel from the U.K. due to the new strain, but France did say they would open their borders for those who have tested negative. However, experts still believe that the v… View More

There is plenty of weaker global news, including a new lockdown in London this weekend. A package of weaker economic data looks to have finally broken the stalemate on U.S. fiscal policy. Additional stimulus from D.C. appears imminent, sizeable, and front-end loaded for 2021. We’ve revised up our near-term U.S. real GDP estimate, including moving 1Q into positive territory (+3.0% q/q A.R.), and continue to look for an economic surge by mid-2021. The “19” in COVID-19 stands for 2019, markin… View More

What would normally take years to develop, research, test, manufacture, and deliver has been condensed into just months. Through Operation Warp Speed, our country has delivered to the world a Christmas gift that will be hard to beat for many years to come. Through a historic partnership between the public and private sector, our medical professionals, President Trump, and his Corona Virus task force have done the impossible in delivering lifesaving vaccines at unprecedented speed. It estimated … View More

The economic concept of “no free lunch” revolves around the idea that there are often limits when making proper decisions. In the healthcare space, we could say 2020 was a no-free-lunch year with COVID-19: if the virus is not controlled, economic activity that surprises to the upside will be followed by unacceptable (non-linear) virus spread, meaning consequent data must surprise to the downside (lockdowns take place). Europe has lived this experience during the last month. The U.S. payroll … View More

As the end of the year and the holiday season approaches, we will all see an uptick in the number of charitable solicitations arriving in our mailboxes and by email. Since some charities sell their contributor lists to other charities, frequent contributors may find themselves besieged by requests from all sorts of charities with which they are not familiar. Watch Out for Charity Scams - You need to be careful, as scammers out there are pretending to be legitimate charities looking to take adva… View More

We hope you had a great Thanksgiving weekend and were able to spend time with family and friends. As we make the final push to finish what has been an unusual 2020, we are presented with many of the same challenges that started this year, a year in which many of us wish we could turn back the hands of time and take a mulligan. The global picture continues to diverge. Europe is in an economic double-dip, with new COVID-19 lockdowns having slowed economic activity. With the virus controlled, Chin… View More

Europe appears to be in the midst of an economic double-dip, with new COVID-19 lockdowns slowing economic activity. With the virus controlled, China continues to expand. With the virus not controlled, the U.S. continues to expand. The concern in the U.S. is that activity & mobility have become too quick for virus control (especially heading into the winter holidays). We continue to deal with a non-linear series. With a tested vaccine being produced now, U.S. policymakers are feeling pressure… View More