In observance of Presidents' Day, the New York Stock Exchange and bond markets are closed on Monday, February 20, 2023. Our office will be closing at 1:00PM PST on Friday, February 17, 2023, and will reopen on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, at 6:30AM PST. Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com … View More
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U.S. equities closed lower last week as the S&P 500 (-1.1%) fell for the first time in three weeks and Nasdaq (-2.4%) in six weeks. WTI crude was up 8.6%, the best week since early October. Treasuries turned into a headwind due to a repricing of the Fed rate path. The only positive sector was energy (+5.0%); the worst sector was communication services (-6.6%) due in part to Google (-9.7%). Source: Bob Doll, Crossmark Investments Chart reflects price changes, not total return. B… View More
We first became cautious on future market returns last March and have remained so ever since. Despite some countertrend rallies after the market peaked at 4,797 on January 3, 2022, we continue to believe that the inversion of the yield curve, aggressive Fed tightening, and the likelihood of a decline in corporate profits renders the chances of recession by the end of 2024 at about 3 in 4. Having said that, the tape and the economic data over the past month suggest that a recession is unlikely t… View More
The Fed downshifted to a smaller rate hike to start 2023, but the job is far from done. As expected, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points (bp) today, slowing from the 50bp hike in December, and the 75bp hikes at the four meetings before that. However, the Fed continued to reiterate that ongoing tightening is warranted and repeated the view that the risk to doing too little is greater than the risk of doing too much. While we have to wait for March to get updated forecasts from the Fed (the d… View More
U.S. equities finished higher last week (S&P 500 +2.5%), closing above the 4000 level for the first time since early December. The path of least resistance remains higher even though earnings season continued to undershoot expectations. Best sectors were consumer discretionary (+6.4%) and technology (+4.1%); worst sectors were healthcare (-0.9%) and utilities (-0.5%). 4Q Reporting Season Continues To Underwhelm The 4Q reporting season continues to underwhelm with earnings growth expec… View More
Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Global Investments Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com Latest News Market Recovery Hinges on Quick Drop in Inflation Rate Stocks and bonds have been buoyed by expectations that price increases will cool quickly. The Wall Street Journal Read Story Activist Takes Big Stake in Salesforce Elliott Management has a multibillion-dollar stake in the business-software provider. The Wall Street Journal Read Story Earn… View More
Stocks closed higher last week (S&P 500 +2.7%) at their highest level in a month. The main macro tailwinds include the decline in inflation (CPI) and improved consumer sentiment. Best sectors were consumer discretionary (+5.8%) and technology (+4.6%); worst sectors were consumer staples (-1.5%) and healthcare (-0.2%). Source: Bob Doll Crossmark Global Investments Sincerely, Fortem Financial(760) 206-8500team@fortemfin.com Latest News TaxWatch: IRS wraps up paying p… View More
The Internal Revenue Service offered a lifeboat of sorts Tuesday to California residents and businesses floundering in the atmospheric river: More time to pay their income taxes. The agency announced that taxpayers in any county covered by a federal emergency declaration would have until May 15 to file their income tax returns for 2022. So far, 31 of the state’s 58 counties are in that group, including Los Angeles, Orange, San Diego and Ventura counties; if the declaration is extended to more… View More
Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.” In turn, the theory goes, the Federal Reserve could stop raising short-term rates earlier and at a lower peak than previously expected, inflation would continue to cool, and the economy could pull-off an elusive “soft landing.” The biggest headli… View More
Is a U.S. recession or economic recovery in store for 2023? Risk: With inflation peaking at 9.1% in June, a recession is now the No. 1 economic concern going into 2023. When businesses make less money due to lower consumer spending (triggered by dwindling reserves, price pressures and an aggressive Fed), companies lay off workers and more people are hesitant to spend. Weak expectations or prior over-investing also factor into the equation, with many firms feeling that large swaths of the … View More